Can KT Tuohy frontrun her way to a 1500 Championship? And then Double back for a 5k Title?

So who is winning these heats? Is Tuohy going to push it in heat 1 (will she have a choice)? I think Howell is winning heat 2.

The rule I found is (from the 2021 and 2022 NCAA Cross Country/Track&Field Rule Book).

I don't know if there is a newer edition.

"Seed each group of place winners as a unit by their times. Seed winners,
then seed second-place runners, etc. Work from left to right, and from
right to left and then all qualifiers on time in descending order."

What they did seems to have somewhat followed this, but they put fastest and slowest finisher in heat 1 and 2nd/3rd place finishers in heat 2 for each of the groups of finishers in quarterfinals (winner/second place/etc). That seems to be in conflict with the left to right, and right to left piece.

NCAA is rigged. This is fixed.

First, will Barnett go to the front? If she does I think Tuohy sits on her until she thinks the pace is not fast enough. Who wins is less important than who makes top 5. 3 of the following will not be in top 5 of heat 1:
Mia Barnett
Simone Plourde
Klaudia Kazimierska
Katelyn Tuohy
Margot Appleton
Abbe Goldstein
Maddy Elmore
Sophie O'Sullivan

Based only on recent results I would say Goldstein does not make top 5, or maybe top 7. After that it gets a lot tougher. Can the OR ladies repeat their 4:08s. Can Barnett continue her recent sub 4:10 races? Tactics may be the big determing factor and I would like those who start the final lap at the front. The other heat I like Howell, Flockhart and Bott and after that it is 5 or 6 fighting for 4th and 5th.

* I should say "at least 3 of the following" The other 4 runners in heat 1 have prs 3-5 seconds slower than these 8.

I totally agree re Heat 2. Very competitive for those two spots. The thing is, unless someone decides to push from the front and has a massive PR I don't see any way Heat 2 gets the time q's because the top 3 can win without pushing the pace too hard. I am nervous for Maatoug tbh.

Heat 1 is tough to call. I think it is unlikely that every runner runs their PR again in the semifinal, but curious what others think.

My guess Barnett goes to the lead and runs quick like she has done (predictably) all season. Tuohy may have to turn on the jets for this semifinal.

I like your picks, but might swap in Ramsden somewhere. She has improved a lot and beat Appleton in the semi, but her PR is 4:11. She may need to PR to make the finals. Time q maybe.

I am not a fan of the heats ... but fixed in favor of who?

In the refereeing or control over any contest I think consistency means a lot.

Yeah but who benefits? Being this lopsided makes it much harder for the top runners. Flockhart, Bott and Howell are jumping for joy

I don't know. Another oddity - maybe perfectly normal seeding - but TX has 4 runners in the 100 m dash. All 4 in first semi final. Only 2 big Qs.

So I looked at the men's heats and it is similar but in reverse. They got

Heat 1

1-2,1-3, 2-2, 2-3

Heat 2

1-1, 1,4, 2-1, 2-4...

Back to Barnett, I don't know that it is in her best interest to lead if Tuohy wants to take the lead. Might be better to draft. I wonder if she will try to hold it.

Here's some thinking on the monster heat. These ladies are sort of what they are at this point, so I think we get what we have been seeing as far as tactics.

Stars: Touhy, Barnett, Plourde, Appleton, O'Sullivan, Elmore, Kazimierska

Could Surprise: Ramsden, Goldstein

Overmatched: Wilkinson, Freeland, May

Touhy and Barnett charge for the front, they are starting close together on the inside anyway. Barnett leads through 600 w Touhy going to the front on straight before 700 mark. Chasers are Ramsden, Plourde, Appleton and May. Touhy ramps it up on lap 3 stringing out the field. Touhy hits 1100 in 3:03. On the last lap the NW express of O'Sullivan, Kazimierska and Elmore move thru the field to get in the hunt.

Touhy wins in 4:06, followed by O'Sullivan, Plourde, Kazimierska, and Elmore in 4:07/08. Barnett and Appleton settle for 6 and 7 and small q's in 4:09.

-The field could deliberately close off Barnett and Touhy at the start taking them out of rhythm and forcing them to deal with a box, but probably unlikely.

-Elmore is a red shirt soph in her 1st outdoor season w hs pr of 4:53 improved to 4:35 indoor and now 4:08! She's most likely to slip up among front runners.

Ramsden has great pedigree and is most likely to surprise. She's do for a pr and could hang on to kt for a q.

Wilkinson has speed to burn, if she's lurking w 200 to go watch out. I just don't think she can hang on to this pace.

Yeah the box could be an issue. Barnett in lane 1, Tuohy in lane 4. It will be harder to do the ole looparound around at this pace .

Sub 4:08 might be max effort ... Someone from the slow heat may have an easier time scooping up the win in the finals if this heat is tired.

Too much talk about this obvious American doper.

Well, somehow you are here again, joining the discussion. Too much talk you say?

What's funny is if Barnett and Touhy got boxed, pace would crawl as everyone else would be thrilled w/ 4:14. So they could loop around. Can you think of another who would push the pace? May, Ramsden, Appleton?

Elmore ran 4:27 in high school and ~4:32 as a frosh.

4:32 as a HS frosh.

I didnt think about that but yeah it would probably be slower. They still need to get out of the box though...

Maybe Plourde? She probably would prefer the race to be atleast a little honest. Appleton at 700m if nothing happens by then. I don't think Ramsden, Oregon or OSullivan would try to lead. Not sure about May.