d3 xc nationals predictions

How about Brandeis? We're up there!

Don't let the haters get you down. Brandeis deserves the d3 throne. Take the world by storm. Go Owls

SAD! Dickinson will win again for the 7th year in a row, it's UNFAIR that the lyin' liberal media says Swarthmore beat them.

I think if Conn gets fourth at regionals they are a safe bet but if they lose to either Amherst or SLU I'm not sure if they're good enough to push them in. Seems crazy to say the Mideast would only take three teams but SLU or Amherst might end up just bumping Conn out.

Final pre-regional NCAA q prediction:

East: MIT, Colby, Tufts, Bates

Mideast: RPI, Williams, Middlebury, Conn

Niagara: SUNY Geneseo

Metro: Haverford

Mid-Atlantic: Johns Hopkins, Carnegie Mellon

South: Emory, Lynchburg

Midwest: North Central, Wartburg, WashU, Loras, UChicago

North: La Crosse, Whitewater, St. Olaf, Stout

Great Lakes: John Carroll, Case Western, Otterbein, Wilmington, Calvin

West: PP, CMS, George Fox, UC Santa Cruz

Bubble teams, in order: Eau Claire - North (will likely qualify if they beat Stout, maybe even if they only finish a few points behind Stout), Mount Union - Great Lakes (will likely qualify if they beat Calvin or Wilmington), Amherst - Mideast (might qualify if they beat Conn), Oshkosh - North (might qualify if they manage to beat Stout and Eau Claire), SLU - Mideast (huge longshot, but possible if they beat Conn and Amherst)

Based on last year, it can be very safely assumed that no region will receive more than 5 teams. The Midwest, North, Great Lakes, and maybe the Mideast are the only regions with the potential to receive 5 teams.

It is pretty definitive on who will qualify out of the West, Mid-Atlantic, Metro, Niagara, and South regions. The biggest question marks that will come into play on Saturday regarding who gets the last spots is if Eau Claire or Oshkosh beat Stout, the winner between Calvin and Mount Union (which is honestly somewhat of a tossup), and if Amherst or SLU beat Conn.

Conn (Mideast) - wins against Bates, Tufts x2, Calvin, Mount Union x2, Amherst x2, SLU x2

Bates (East) - wins against Conn, Tufts x2, Mount Union, Amherst x2, SLU

Tufts (East) - wins against Amherst, SLU

Calvin (Great Lakes) - wins against Eau Claire, Mount Union, SLU

Mount Union (Great Lakes) - wins against Amherst, SLU

Eau Claire (North) - wins against Oshkosh x2

Amherst - win against SLU, tie/loss with Mount Union

SLU - no relevant wins

Oshkosh (North) - no relevant wins

bro is literally 23 years old as a true freshman

Wait, did you just figure this out? Have you let him know? This is literally the most earth shattering revelation that anybody who has remotely been paying attention has already known for months.

I think we can safely predict the most of the qualifiers on the men's side. The last few qualifiers will depend on how the West regional shakes out - I'll mark the bubble teams with a star:
East: MIT, Bates, Colby
GL: JCU, CWRU, Mt. Union, Otterbein, Calvin, Wilmington*
Metro: Haverford
MA: CMU, JHU
Mideast: Williams, RPI, Middlebury, Conn
Midwest: NCC, Wartburg, Loras, UChicago, WUSTL
Niagara: SUNY Geneseo
North: UWL, UWW, St. Olaf, UWS
South: Emory, Lynchburg
West: PP, CMS, UCSC, GFU, Pac Lutheran*

If Pac Lutheran beats GFU, both will go and Wilmington will be left out. OTOH, if GFU beats Pac Lutheran, Pac Lutheran will be left out and Wilmington will go. Either way, the first team out is Tufts.

Too bad Tufts didn't have anyone who could run the mile in 4:06.

SLU?

6 teams from the Great Lakes??

Pacific Lutheran and Wilmington have no chance, they won’t take 6 teams from a single region and pacific hasn’t been good all season. It will be between Calvin, conn, tufts, and slu for the last 2 spots. SLU can’t get in without conn however. Conn has the most wins out of all those teams, but their 2 point victory over SLU might keep them out. Interested to hear other peoples thoughts on this.

Point gap does not factor in at all. Conn men will make it to NCAAs.

Wilmington bomb will cause them to miss NCAAs.

Tufts will be last team IN!

The committee values head to head over point gap and the Wilmington's race at PreNats gives them head to head wins over a lot more qualifying teams than Tufts has.

And it's a myth that the committee won't take 6 out of a region. They took 8 out the Midwest in 2015. They haven't taken 6 out of a region since realignment because there has been no reason to do so.

Thats because I’m 2015 there were 8 regions, not 10. With the new alignment they won’t wanna take more than 5 teams. If they took 6 teams, conn easily would’ve qualified last year. And I think they do look at point gap, and wilmingtons 100 point loss to a bubble team like Calvin doesn’t help them.

Well, PLU definitely out.

In 2015 the Midwest got ~38% of the at large bids. If they were fine with that, why would they have a problem giving the GL 23% of the at large bids this year?

When the committee decided on the 31st team to go last year, it was between Amherst and WPI, because Amherst beat Conn at regionals so they couldn't consider Conn yet. That went to WPI, because WPI had a head-to-head win over Amherst. When the committee decided on 32nd team to go last year, it had to go to Amherst, because they had the best resume out of the remaining teams who placed immediately behind a qualifying team at the regional meet. It had nothing to do with the number of teams they were taking out of the Mideast.

This won't be a problem this year is because Calvin has a better resume than Tufts (both beat Mt. Union but Calvin has a better resume against "other potential at-large
teams"), so they'll take Calvin 31st, and then Wilmington has a better resume than Tufts, so they'll take Wilmington 32nd.

RPI…more RIP after todays result 🪦