Would Newbury Park have won D3?

perfect cell wrote:

The eventual D3 champs PP ran an average of 25:16 on that very fast course.

You're looking at the open results

PP averaged 24:32 at UCR

Ghost of Ward Cleaver wrote:

Imimpresssed wrote:

I’m tired of these HS fans relentlessly attacking. They will never stop. So it’s time to go on offense.

PP could win high school nationals at 5k.

I hope you don't think I'm attacking anyone...and I like PP chances much more at 8k than 5k against NP.

After seeing what NBP did today on a course without hills. I think they would win D3.

14:03

14:05

14:06

14:15

14:44

14:53

14:59

24 min 8k is coming through 5k a full minute slower than they ran today.

stats and analysis wrote:

Ghost of Ward Cleaver wrote:

I hope you don't think I'm attacking anyone...and I like PP chances much more at 8k than 5k against NP.

After seeing what NBP did today on a course without hills. I think they would win D3.

14:03

14:05

14:06

14:15

14:44

14:53

14:59

24 min 8k is coming through 5k a full minute slower than they ran today.

I didn't think the course today was flat at all. It looked way hillier than Tom Sawyer, but the issue with both layouts is the accuracy of the overall course length.

For reference, Jenna ran 15:58 here last year and then ran 15:34 on the track 3 weeks later.

I was one of the course doubters until she ran so much faster on the track.

It’s a lightning-fast course. NP is really good and everyone acknowledges their top 4 would mix it up real well with the best D3 guys. But the 8k distance, and the gap to their 5th guy remains the issue.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

It’s a lightning-fast course. NP is really good and everyone acknowledges their top 4 would mix it up real well with the best D3 guys. But the 8k distance, and the gap to their 5th guy remains the issue.

+1

Did you see Aaron Sahlman right after he crossed the line today? His time over the theoretical next 3K would have been infinity. NP is amazing, but we have NO reliable data upon which to argue that they could beat PP at 8K. I’ve seen PP race and train, and these are young men, while the NP group are still boys. Of course the NP runners are more talented and in 3-4 years they would dominate D3, but dropping the NP of today into D3 nationals, no, they’d get smoked. Probably they would lose by 100 points.

ur looking at Pomona's b team average at UCR lmao. Pomona team averaged like 24:25 or something at UCR.

perfect cell wrote:

By the way I didn’t mean to insult Pick. I watched him run in high school and he has accomplished a lot through his whole career. I don’t know about his injury history but he is an exceptional runner.

I still believe that the NP boys are ahead of him at the moment but as you suggest I could be proven wrong in track season and I hope that he does prove me wrong.

He ran 8:11 today, which definitely lines up with the XC performance. I would guess that is off XC training as there hasn’t been much time to sharpen for shorter races like this.

I posted earlier saying PP would win.... But after today's race by Newbury Park, WOW was I wrong!

NP might go 1234 and 14:44 for their fifth on a cross country course is very good. At least 40th. That puts NP at 50 and PP at 100.

D3 winner ran 13:58 today. And keep in mind that you are talking about 8k. NP only runs 60MPW.

Craig's Mullet wrote:

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Easily have 4 in the top 6? Do you really think they would all guaranteed beat Henry Pick, Aidan Ryan, Simon Heys, David Fassbender, Tyler Morris, etc? In their first race over 5km AND their first of the season where they wouldn't be able to front run and time trial the whole thing?

Plenty of guys could be viewed as "All-American locks" that blew up and finished well behind of where they should've. That's what happens in big collegiate championship races. (And those guys actually have experience racing the 8k distance).

Newbury Park's top 4 today were WAY more impressive than Pick running 8:11 over 3k on the fastest indoor track in the country.

run man 742 wrote:

Craig's Mullet wrote:

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Easily have 4 in the top 6? Do you really think they would all guaranteed beat Henry Pick, Aidan Ryan, Simon Heys, David Fassbender, Tyler Morris, etc? In their first race over 5km AND their first of the season where they wouldn't be able to front run and time trial the whole thing?

Plenty of guys could be viewed as "All-American locks" that blew up and finished well behind of where they should've. That's what happens in big collegiate championship races. (And those guys actually have experience racing the 8k distance).

Newbury Park's top 4 today were WAY more impressive than Pick running 8:11 over 3k on the fastest indoor track in the country.

Glad you happy, it’s a great sport to follow isn’t it? Whether 16 year old D1 talents and possible future pros or D3 runners who improve so much through years of work, there is much to admire in all of them.

perfect cell wrote:

Just to drive the point home more consider this fact.

Nico Young ran 7:56.97 his senior year in his only 3k of his shortened season.

There are only 2 runners in the history of NCAA D2 (Noble and Gidabuday) who have run faster than that.

And there are no NCAA D3 runners faster than that in all of history.

Sahlman and the twins are basically equal with Nico which means they could go 1-2-3 at nationals in both D2 or D3.

Do you honestly think they can just "Magically" add 2-3 miles in race distance and perform the same? Maybe, in a 5K race, they can compete against a D-3 team. NO chance at 8k and definitely NO chance at 10k.

First track race since April, likely hasn't done much speed and runs a solid 8:47 3,200 equivalent. Not really seeing what this means for an 23-25 minute 8K race on an XC course. Or how NP running on a lightning fast 5K course with little traffic has much relevance.

Everyone here acknowledges if D3 nationals was a 3K time trial, NP would fare really well.

Wise Old Man wrote:

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

It’s a lightning-fast course. NP is really good and everyone acknowledges their top 4 would mix it up real well with the best D3 guys. But the 8k distance, and the gap to their 5th guy remains the issue.

+1

Did you see Aaron Sahlman right after he crossed the line today? His time over the theoretical next 3K would have been infinity. NP is amazing, but we have NO reliable data upon which to argue that they could beat PP at 8K. I’ve seen PP race and train, and these are young men, while the NP group are still boys. Of course the NP runners are more talented and in 3-4 years they would dominate D3, but dropping the NP of today into D3 nationals, no, they’d get smoked. Probably they would lose by 100 points.

THANK YOU!

I honestly think the NP fanboys and girls on this thread have never raced X-C before at either of these distances. Seriously, go out and run your 5k personal best (or close to it) and then keep running for another 2 miles (8k) and 3 miles (10k). Yeah Right! Good luck with that.

Unless you've competed at any of these distances in X-C at the elite level in high school and college you truly have NO idea what you're talking about.

24:25 8k, Pomona-Pitzer's average recently in xc, is pretty close to 15:15 5000m pace. Newbury Park just had something like 14:03/5/6/15/44, so yes, I do think that they could easily run 15:15 5000m pace for 8k. That's close to 20 seconds per mile slower for the first four guys, which is very much sustainable for an 8k. They might average 24 flat.

xczvzxcv wrote:

24:25 8k, Pomona-Pitzer's average recently in xc, is pretty close to 15:15 5000m pace. Newbury Park just had something like 14:03/5/6/15/44, so yes, I do think that they could easily run 15:15 5000m pace for 8k. That's close to 20 seconds per mile slower for the first four guys, which is very much sustainable for an 8k. They might average 24 flat.

You're just missing context. They ran really fast, but it was an incredibly fast course. In addition when you're training for a 5K you do not automatically run as well at 8K. The 60mpw they do makes them lightly-trained for the 8K distance, but close enough to optimally trained for a 5K. Especially with a tougher course this will be compounded, where they'll be on their feet for 10 minutes longer (or more). Also, Pomona-Pitzer averaged 24:09 at Nationals, so not sure where you're getting your numbers from.

More to the point if Newbury Park averaged 24flat let's play that out.

4 guys average 23:45, 5th guy 24:45.

Pomona-Pitzer goes to 100 points. Newbury Park scores 5-6-7-8-77 = 103. So they still narrowly lose even under this crazy optimistic scenario.

And I think I did did my math wrong the 5th would be at 25 flat. That would be more like 103 points that he alone would score.

No one in D3 is competing at the elite level. Maybe one or two kids a year if that.