7:18.94
7:18.94
I think it's too early in the season to run something like this but you know what, they were absolutely reliable last year when they set up his 5000m wr attempt and then his 10000m wr attempt. They also were sure to tamp down speculation on his running a half marathon world best, saying that he'd peaked for the 10 record and taken some time off, and so we shouldn't have been too surprised to see Kiplimo (but maybe not the others) beat him at that. So, you have to take the attempt seriously. He does not appear to have the 1500m speed right now to hold a 3:40 but they're saying it and they're pretty reliable about this, so maybe he'll get close. Plus, like I said, if less than gold medal types are running sub 7:25, then Cheptegei can run close. If he's in 12:30s 5000m shape, then, I predict 7:21-22.
Or put another way, everyone we have heard of is doping. And is this only the case in Africa or worldwide?
Armstronglivs wrote:
Tommy2Nutz wrote:
Could you do us all a favor and tell us which ones are NOT doping?
I would suggest the ones you have never heard of and never will.
What are your thoughts on Russia? Deserve that ban right?
Wavelight. Sucks. Asterisk*
A record-setting athlete should be out there on their own, boldly going where no-one has gone before.
Now we can have a (w) beside some assisted distance races, too.
10,000m CHEPTEGEI, Joshua 26:11.00(w)
What a moran, I forgot the asterisk😁
10,000m CHEPTEGEI, Joshua 26:11.00*(W)
ya..... wrote:
There is 100% no possible way this is a world record attempt. That would require significant training block alterations, planning, and is always associated with months of lead up. Remember how long we talked about the 5000 and 10000 before it happened...
This isn't quite correct. Attempting a fast 3000m now fits in pretty well with a preparation for 5000m/10000m in Tokyo this summer.
One looks at this without the super spikes and one says no chance. Hicham could have likely run 7:20 in the super spikes. Daniel ran 3:29 and 12:39 in August 1997. In September 1996 Daniel ran 7:20 with bests of 3:34 and 12:45 at that time. However this is misleading.
1996
August 14 12:45.09
August 16 3:34.17
September 1 7:20.67
So one can see that the 3:34 was run just 2 days after the 12:45.
In August 1997 Daniel was on fire:
August 16 3:29.46
August 22 12:39.74
August 26 3:46.38 mile
Daniel surely was more gifted at 3000m than Joshua. Hicham likely was too. Kenenisa and Haile surely were as gifted as Joshua at 3000m. Are the shoes and wave lights enough? I do not think so BUT stay tuned...
Cheptegei’s splits were 60.70, 61.70, 60.64, 60.41, 61.25, 60.91, 60.03, 60.10, 60.18, 60.33, 59.97 and 59.64.
that is 731 3000m split close,
near average pace.
here is Chep finishing close behind a 330 1500 guy.... which is all i can do for the moment to calibrate his speed.
https://worldathletics.org/athletes/uganda/ronald-musagala-14486104
https://runningmagazine.ca/sections/runs-races/joshua-cheptegei-breaks-5000m-world-record/
based on all the data here, its a long shot to break the 3000m record, however, this guy has succeeded in both record attempts to date,
you have to give him 723 -725
if it was later in the season and we saw some multiple speed work-races, then you'd know.
in other words, the dude has to run a 330 1500m to have a proper shot = same as komen.
thinking some more.
Chep probably ran a very crazy 2000m time trial (or 1200-1600-2000 ish thing) recently, and that's why they are going for it.
In other words, it's not so much about the speed, but maintaining.
none the less, no how matter you slice and dice it, the WR 3000m time guarantees a great 1500.
Armstronglivs wrote:
rekrunner wrote:
What I have already explained is that modern training would prescribe and predict a 1500m, this early in the season, as fast as 3:35, and not faster. Take into account 1-2 seconds for altitude, and the reality matches the prediction pretty much spot on.
As further confirmation, modern training suggests a 7:20-7:23-ish attempt at 3000m, about 1 month later, as a logical progression towards extending the established intensity, on the way to 5000m.
Whatever everybody else is doing, and whatever else Cheptegei is doing, modern training offers a highly superior explanation for a 3:37 1500m at altitude in April, and a world record attempt at 3000m in May, in preparation for a 5000m/10000m Olympics this summer.
So you can't answer any of my questions. I thought not. All you can claim is that without any knowledge of Cheptegei's "modern training" he will run in the region of 7.23. But all your assertions are made without knowledge.
I answered what was relevant, and found your remaining questions irrelevant, as my answer explains completely why I am satisfied with his 1500m time in April, and a 3000m world record attempt in May.
But here are your answers:
- My knowledge of "modern training" does not suggest that everybody trains the same.
- I can explain that Cheptegei training includes developing SPECIFIC 5000m race pace INTENSITY, and then EXTENDING that INTENSITY to longer distances, as the training progresses.
- I know this because he ran a 1500m time trial in April at a SPECIFIC 5000m pace, and in mid-May he is attempting a 3000m race, which will also be at a SPECIFIC 5000m pace if it is anywhere between 7:20-7:33 (actually any time between 7:10-7:56), and then he will attempt 5000m and 10000m in Tokyo this summer, presumably at SPECIFIC race paces.
- I know that 1500, followed by 3000, then followed by 5000 and 10000 are progressively longer because of FIRST GRADE MATH.
I did not claim he *WILL RUN* in the region of 7:23, but that modern training suggests attempting it, as part of a progression of EXTENSION. I also said we could "reasonably expect" a 7:23-7:25.
Armstronglivs wrote:
You need "3.40 endurance"? Not quite. Old boy - you need the endurance to run two of them consecutively; not quite the same thing and something no one has managed in 25 years. You certainly won't have the endurance to run two of them if you can't manage to run much faster for just one.
So you think his 10k record predicts 7.11 for 3k? That's two of Herb Elliott's 1500 world records from Rome run back to back. It is also incidentally faster than Cheptegei has so far managed for just one 1500. It's amazing what "modern training" can do. Especially amongst Africans.
My original statement, just 23 hours ago, was:
"What you need is the endurance to run 3:40 speed for 3000m."
No one with 3:29 speed has managed that in 25 years either.
No one thinks that Cheptegei "can't manage to run much faster for just one".
Talk to a native English speaker about the distinction between "has not" and "cannot".
I don't "think his 10k record predicts 7.11 for 3k" -- this is not something I think or don't think but a value in a prediction table.
I have a newsflash for you -- times from 1960 are slow by today's standards. No disrespect to Herb Elliot, but that was 61 years ago. It is time for you to move on.
Bythebay12 wrote:
His 5000m and 10000m performances absolutely do not predict a 3000m that fast. You might be using the Jack Daniels performance tables. Just know that those tables badly mis-predict 3000m time, likely due to their incorrect calculation of how long Vo2max can be held for. Based on Joshua’s 5000m performance in Monaco, he should be able to run about 7:20.0 if he gets decent pacing to 2000m. The big X factor is we don’t really know Joshua’s true 1500m ability.
You are half right. The ranges I gave use two predictors: Daniels' VDOT and Purdy (predictors can be found at runnerspace.com).
VDOT is based on speed for oxygen measurements, and Purdy is based on WR performances, albeit very old ones.
I'm aware of the limitations of Daniels VDOT, especially for shorter distances, and the limitations of Purdy. Purdy is better for shorter distances.
Having said that, we both draw the same conclusion "Based on Joshua’s 5000m performance in Monaco, he should be able to run about 7:20.0 if he gets decent pacing ..."
I don't predict 7:11 to 7:16 now, but used these common predictors to not completely rule out a 7:20 World Record. Assuming weather and pacing and shoes and lights, the largest variable (besides true 1500m ability) is how his training is right now in mid-May.
It’s established that the rule change from WA 5 years ago brought along feather-esque performance enhancing shoes/spikes. Together with the wavelight which I also dislike (removes a big mental part of the game, as well as the skill of maintaining pace by yourself) I give Cheptegei decent chances of breaking this. Think 7:20-23 is a good guess.
That being said, if you factor in the spikes (~15s at a 10k) he’s insane, but not quite Bekele/Geb/Komen/El G crazy. Assuming everyone is about as doped.
The saddest thing is there really isnt a winner here. If he does do it we'll just assume it's the spikes and/or doping. If he doesn't it will confirm that Komen was one of very few to never get pinged for doping ...
drtoneill wrote:
The saddest thing is there really isnt a winner here. If he does do it we'll just assume it's the spikes and/or doping. If he doesn't it will confirm that Komen was one of very few to never get pinged for doping ...
How do the pass all the doping tests? In cycling they get catched again and again ....
lexel wrote:
drtoneill wrote:
The saddest thing is there really isnt a winner here. If he does do it we'll just assume it's the spikes and/or doping. If he doesn't it will confirm that Komen was one of very few to never get pinged for doping ...
How do the pass all the doping tests? In cycling they get catched again and again ....
Microdozing and/or new doping methods not detectable yet. Most people probably mostly dope off-season.
JohnnyS wrote:
lexel wrote:
How do the pass all the doping tests? In cycling they get catched again and again ....
Microdozing and/or new doping methods not detectable yet. Most people probably mostly dope off-season.
Microdozing EPO this is what Lance Armstrong did, he get caught.
I am just wondering if the runners get protected from doping controls? (e.g. no controls off-season) If they dope this could be one explanation (a big system behind).
In cycling the freeze the blood probe, so they can catch you later on. And they do.
Fitting if this was an actual race between two people though. “A once unbeatable record, and the unbreakable runner who can beat it ”, should have been the title.
Honey, it is time to come upstairs and take your your medication. You have had enough screentime.