Will Jenny Simpson ever beat Shelby Houlihan again?

First, this is a great "problem" for the U.S. to have, 2 women capable of medaling in a championship race. I've enjoyed watching Jenny's career and now am also enjoying Shelby's emergence. I want them both to do well.

On the face of it, you'd have to give the edge to Shelby, but in championship races strange things happen, and Jenny is still more experienced tactically. So I could see Shelby getting in the wrong place at the wrong time while Jenny stays clear.

Yes.

Shelby's bigkick is due to her big increase in steps tempo.

Jenny was figuring that out the last 50 meters.

Jenny just needs to practice that big shift in steps tempo.

steeplechase alert wrote:

Jenny could have been one of the greatest steeplechasers of all time. Too bad she decided to focus on the 1500. Big mistake.

You have the rare condition of being right and wrong both simultaneously. Yes, Mrs. Simpson probably could have been a solid steepler...she was before she focused on 1500/mile. But you're wrong as well. She has multiple medals at World Champs/Olympics and even after a fairly long and consistent career is still mixing it up with competitors ten years younger. Got to give props to that.

Jennywillmedal wrote:

la chula wrote:

If you say yes, you must give a reason.

She did better than I thought she would today but I am still going with no.

Doha final. The race will start 800m to go and Shelby will be at the back and will end up with too much track to cover.

I was thinking the same thing. Hope this doesn't happen though. I'd like to see Houlihan medal, but if she's 2-3 seconds off the back with even 600 to go, it's already over.

WTF2THAT wrote:

steeplechase alert wrote:

Jenny could have been one of the greatest steeplechasers of all time. Too bad she decided to focus on the 1500. Big mistake.

You have the rare condition of being right and wrong both simultaneously. Yes, Mrs. Simpson probably could have been a solid steepler...she was before she focused on 1500/mile. But you're wrong as well. She has multiple medals at World Champs/Olympics and even after a fairly long and consistent career is still mixing it up with competitors ten years younger. Got to give props to that.

Emma Coburn's accomplishments are pretty similar to Jenny's and Jenny is FAR faster over 1500 and 3000. Jenny also had good steeplechase form. Jenny's ceiling in the steeplechase is much higher than her ceiling in the 1500. She could have run 8:50.

Shelby got a 3-meter or so jump on Simpson at about 120m from the finish with her superior acceleration, but once Simpson got up to speed, Houlihan did not pull any farther away. This is an improvement for Jenny over last year, when Houlihan would continually widen the gap over Simpson down the homestretch. Simpson's top-end speed and form looked very good to me coming down to the line. (Faster than anyone in the last 50m, though, was Hiltz.)

Tactically Simpson remains the master, and better in that department than Houlihan who still sometimes either loses focus and lets the leaders get too far ahead in the middle stages in fast Diamond-League races from, say, 1000m to 600m out— or perhaps doesn't quite have the conditioning in some cases to stay as close as she needs to mid-race.

I think Simpson still has the chance to best Houlihan in unpredictable championship-style races where someone like Muir, Hassan, Dibaba, or Kipyegon puts the hammer down mid-race, and Jenny judges the correct response/effort to make better than Houlihan. I can't recall: Has Houlihan prevailed yet in a race over the top guns when that strategy has been employed?

I don't think Jenny is going to beat Shelby anymore in races in which they are clearly the top two competitors. But if Hassan and Muir get thrown into the mix and tactics change, Jenny might finish ahead of Shelby.

I thought Jenny is someone also with a killer kick so why did she use the tactic of going out so soon?

Old vet wrote:

I think Simpson still has the chance to best Houlihan in unpredictable championship-style races where someone like Muir, Hassan, Dibaba, or Kipyegon puts the hammer down mid-race, and Jenny judges the correct response/effort to make better than Houlihan. I can't recall: Has Houlihan prevailed yet in a race over the top guns when that strategy has been employed?

These races are quite rare outside of big finals. As 2016 and 2017 proved it is very hard to judge correctly how fast one can run ca. 700-1200 and still to have enough for the last 300. Kipyegon was supreme and Simpson very good at this while very strong runners like Dibaba, Hassan and Muir were beaten in this fashion. I think Houlihan lost a similar race with a very slow beginning to Chebet last year in Ostrava.

But I do have doubts that this year's worlds final will be such a race. If Tsegay is in the final she will make it fast from the beginning. After two rounds she may not have 3:57 in the tank and she very probably will not medal but she will force a sub 4 pace at the beginning so it will be crucial to run around/sub 4 with a fast finish, not a fast 800 with 700m jogging before that. And there might be more, e.g. Dibaba, preferring a fast race from the start.

Right now I think Muir has the best combination of overall speed (3:55 best, 3:56 SB) and finishing speed (like that sub 58 for 3:58) but quite a few are close enough and Houlihan can also get there.

I'm going to go with yes. An awful lot of amazing 1500m runners have come and gone during jenny's career, and she just keeps making teams and winning medals. Her time is coming up a close, but I think she'll have one last hurrah in some form.

As for steeplechase vs 1500m, doing well and winning medals at the metric mile glory event is a lot more worthwhile than dominating an obscure event like steeple, IMO.

Old vet wrote:

I think Simpson still has the chance to best Houlihan in unpredictable championship-style races where someone like Muir, Hassan, Dibaba, or Kipyegon puts the hammer down mid-race, and Jenny judges the correct response/effort to make better than Houlihan. I can't recall: Has Houlihan prevailed yet in a race over the top guns when that strategy has been employed?

Muir beat Houlihan using this strategy in Brussels last year. (Hassan probably would have beat her as well, but was drained from running a fast 5,000 the day before.)

Even though Houlihan couldn't catch Muir, Simpson couldn't catch Houlihan, who finished second. Simpson was 10th, six seconds behind Muir & Houlihan.

I think Simpson needs a repeat of the Rio final, where lots of people blew up. By not reacting, Simpson was able to blow by them at the end.

Nobody is better than Simpson at waiting for opportunities to open up and then taking advantage of them.

Steeplechase? No, the 1500 is more prestigious, and Jenny did win a world championship.

Yes, Jenny can beat Shelby, but Doha and Tokyo are her last chances. With Dibaba or Muir pushing a fast final 800, Jenny could go along for the ride without having to lead. She would need an American record of 3:56 flat. Only Jenny knows if her training is making that time possible.

Yes, Shelby did have a big Diamond League win over the top runners.

falconrunner22 wrote:

Yes, Shelby did have a big Diamond League win over the top runners.

But this was not with a slow beginning and sub 2:00 last 800m (or correspondingly fast last 600-700) like the finals of Rio 2016 and London 2017.

Opinionated guy wrote:

If there are no outside factors such as illness or injury, I think it woul take SH going with a super fast pace set by Hassan, Dibaba, etc. with JS laying back and picking up the pieces if SH cracks late.

How else can you beat someone who currently appears much stronger, much faster, and more confident?

There is no question that Houlihan is faster and stronger now. But she hasn't won anything yet besides US championships. WC or Olympic finals seldom go as planned. The best championship racers are those that can make tactical adjustments on the fly. Shelby certainly has the talent and hopefully she can deliver on that. Simpson has already proved she can.

56yut wrote:

There is no question that Houlihan is faster and stronger now. But she hasn't won anything yet besides US championships. WC or Olympic finals seldom go as planned. The best championship racers are those that can make tactical adjustments on the fly. Shelby certainly has the talent and hopefully she can deliver on that. Simpson has already proved she can.

I agree with you. It is Houlihan's great acceleration that leads me to believe she has great potential. Of course she has to win something big and take down the big guns but there was a time Edwin Moses had a win streak of 1. I am not anti-Simpson in any way and will not be surprised with any additional major achievements. I am just enamored with Houlihan's upside and potential that seem to me to be aligned with championship racing, needing only additional experience.

Strategist wrote:

If someone can crank a sub 58 last 400 Shelby is done. Only problem is the only person that could do that in the US is the favorite to win the 800. Yes, if you don’t do think Wilson could finish a tactical 1500 very fast you’re on crack

What an uninformed post? If someone closes sub-58 Shelby is done?

I guess you don't realize she won USAs last year with a 57.67 last lap.

As for WIlson closing a tactical 1500 fast, I'll take you up on that. Let's have Shelby and Ajee run at 4:10 pace for 1100 meters. I"ll take Houlihan for the win without hesitation. At Swarthmore this year, Ajee basically did that. She hit 1100 in 3:05.07 and then ran 4:08.17 (63.11 last lap). Yesterday, Houlihan hit 1100 in 3:02.59 and then closed in 60.59.

400 speed means much less than who has the most "left" when it's time to kick.

At Swarthmore... ok and you think she was trying to prove something there? Hoolihan lost to Kate grace in an 800 a few weeks ago... you think she would lose to grace in an 800 at USAs... no.

If Wilson focused on the 1500 and ran it with the intent to kick for the win, she would beat houlihan. Maybe 58 was off and i should have said sub 57, but either way even If it were a fast last 200 like a 27, that would be enough. Watch how Wilson closes the 800 today, she’s much smoother at finishing fast than most of the other runners in the U.S so her kick is underrated. She’s one of the best kickers we’ve ever had. Maybe she hasn’t proven that in a 1500 yet, but certainly has in an 800!

la chula wrote:

If you say yes, you must give a reason.

She did better than I thought she would today but I am still going with no.

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Yes. Jenny Simpson will beat Houlihan in Doha because championship races are all that matters to her. Everything Simpson does is geared towards the World Championships and Olympics. Diamond League points mean nothing to her. She is gearing towards a big peak in late September, eight weeks from now. Jenny is pacing herself through this season. You will see Jenny's dynamic finish in Doha, because that's where she needs it.