Who has the edge? Shelby Houlihan vs Caster Semenya at 1500 in Lausanne on Thursday

osm wrote:

In my estimation - wrote:

Muir is not going to run 3:49. Your prediction is way off.

I generally hate the 'fastest western white woman is the only one who's clean' game, but Dibaba hasn't touched her world record form since her coach got busted with EPO, and everyone else ahead of Muir was a Chinese/Eastern European lab experiment. I don't think Muir wins this one, but my point was that she's so good at her best that you can't count her out of any race she enters.

Nobody can entirely vouch that Muir is clean but she is by far the most likely to be the clean wr holder in the event.

Only chance Shelby has is to man up and grow some balls!

Tinman wrote:

If the pace is steady-fast throughout, we could see ~3:55.01

It will be interesting!

I'd love to be sitting near the finish line on this beautiful Swiss day, a cup of fine beer in my hand, for one of the few great days of T&F left. Perhaps jazz at Montreaux later?

On a sour note: does Shelby have cornrows in that pic? What's up with this girl's hair? Always something wacky.

LM is number 16 on the all-time list. Boulnerka might also be clean.no?

1 3:50.07 Genzebe DIBABA 08 FEB 1991 ETH ETH 1 Monaco (MON) 17 JUL 2015

2 3:50.46 Yunxia QU 25 DEC 1972 CHN CHN 1 Beijing (CHN) 11 SEP 1993

3 3:50.98 Jiang BO 13 MAR 1977 CHN CHN 1 Shanghai (CHN) 18 OCT 1997

4 3:51.34 Yinglai LANG 22 AUG 1979 CHN CHN 2 Shanghai (CHN) 18 OCT 1997

5 3:51.92 Junxia WANG 09 JAN 1973 CHN CHN 2 Beijing (CHN) 11 SEP 1993

6 3:52.47 Tatyana KAZANKINA 17 DEC 1951 URS URS 1 Zürich (SUI) 13 AUG 1980

7 3:53.91 Lili YIN 11 NOV 1979 CHN CHN 3 Shanghai (CHN) 18 OCT 1997

8 3:53.96 Paula IVAN 20 JUL 1963 ROU ROU 1 Seoul (KOR) 01 OCT 1988

9 3:53.97 Lixin LAN 14 FEB 1979 CHN CHN 4 Shanghai (CHN) 18 OCT 1997

10 3:54.11 Genzebe DIBABA 08 FEB 1991 ETH ETH 1 Barcelona (ESP) 08 JUL 2015

11 3:54.23 Olga DVIRNA 11 FEB 1953 URS URS 1f1 Kiev (URS) 27 JUL 1982

12 3:54.52 Ling ZHANG 13 APR 1980 CHN CHN 5 Shanghai (CHN) 18 OCT 1997

13 3:55.0h Tatyana KAZANKINA 17 DEC 1951 URS URS 1 Moskva (URS) 06 JUL 1980

14 3:55.01 Lixin LAN 14 FEB 1979 CHN CHN h Shanghai (CHN) 17 OCT 1997

15 3:55.07 Yanmei DONG 16 FEB 1977 CHN CHN 6 Shanghai (CHN) 18 OCT 1997

16 3:55.22 Laura MUIR 09 MAY 1993 GBR GBR 1 Paris (FRA) 27 AUG 2016

17 3:55.30 Hassiba BOULMERKA 10 JUL 1968 ALG ALG 1 Barcelona (ESP) 08 AUG 1992

18 3:55.33 Süreyya AYHAN-KOP 06 SEP 1978 TUR TUR 1 Bruxelles (BEL) 05 SEP 2003

19 3:55.38 Yunxia QU 25 DEC 1972 CHN CHN h Shanghai (CHN) 17 OCT 1997

20 3:55.47 Ling ZHANG 13 APR 1980 CHN CHN h Shanghai (CHN) 17 OCT 1997

Muir is 13th all time.

We have no idea who above her is clean or dirty however. I don't see why Paula Ivan is apparently a doper? She's Romanian which hopefully my US friends know was never in the Soviet Union.

manbearpig 1 wrote:

If she would have been in the 3:50 race with Dibaba . Well the wr wouldn't be 350.

But since that time I doubt she would still be competing either.

I am not sure anyone but a few select actually know how fast she truly can go.

Nah, Semenya finds the 1500 much harder than the 800.

Watch the DL race she won in 3:59. For one of the first times ever you see her flailing a bit (by her standards) on the back straight of the last lap.

I'd say she's a 3:56 runner at best.

Subway Surfers Addiction wrote:

Nobody can entirely vouch that Muir is clean but she is by far the most likely to be the clean wr holder in the event.

Compared to Semenya anyway, but not to the others.

yyy wrote:

LM is number 16 on the all-time list. Boulmerka might also be clean.no?

Yes, and everyone else ahead of her, who isn't a man like Semenya.

aha! didn't count some twice.

This is not proof against Ivan but the SU was obviously not the only doping country in the 1980s (or at any other time). Whereas sub 3:57 are rare and sub 3:55 times were only run by Dibaba, the Chinese and Eastern bloc athletes in the 80s, so there is enough prima facie facts against Ivan to be at least suspicious.

I really wonder what Semenya will do. She did not seem to run full out at her 3:59 PB earlier this year. But I don't think her 1:54 (or potentially faster) will fully tranfer to the 1500. She also ran a 1000m South African record, a distance rarely run, so "sandbagging" should not be necessary, but she ran only 2:35 which seems very weak compared to her 800m times.

Anyone know why Jenny is not running?

David Rudisha could become a woman like Semenya, and probably smash the 1500 record, though that would be a stretch for her. She would more easily smash the 800 record, provided she was still in shape.

New records wrote:

David Rudisha could become a woman like Semenya, and probably smash the 1500 record, though that would be a stretch for her. She would more easily smash the 800 record, provided she was still in shape.

Wonder if he'd be willing to put on a wig and lipstick

yyy wrote:

LM is number 16 on the all-time list. Boulnerka might also be clean.no?

16 3:55.22 Laura MUIR 09 MAY 1993 GBR GBR 1 Paris (FRA) 27 AUG 2016

17 3:55.30 Hassiba BOULMERKA 10 JUL 1968 ALG ALG 1 Barcelona (ESP) 08 AUG 1992

What this sexy beast?

You do know North Africans are notoriously dodgy?

Mourhit, Boulami etc I know. I wonder about Khalid Skah. Early 90s...EPO...???

The pacemakers will run up to 1000m at 3'54 pace

Subway Surfers Addiction wrote:

yyy wrote:

LM is number 16 on the all-time list. Boulnerka might also be clean.no?

16 3:55.22 Laura MUIR 09 MAY 1993 GBR GBR 1 Paris (FRA) 27 AUG 2016

17 3:55.30 Hassiba BOULMERKA 10 JUL 1968 ALG ALG 1 Barcelona (ESP) 08 AUG 1992

What this sexy beast?

Is what this site is reduced to? The W800m is nothing but an ogling event here.

yyy wrote:

Mourhit, Boulami etc I know. I wonder about Khalid Skah. Early 90s...EPO...???

Yes you could safely bet the house on it.

Is this a porn site or what? wrote:

Subway Surfers Addiction wrote:

What this sexy beast?

Is what this site is reduced to? The W800m is nothing but an ogling event here.

I bet that you're still watching ?