A closer look at EPO-era performances

Subway Surfers Addiction wrote:

EPO would benefit the 800m runner by making the athlete fitter and able to push harder on the second lap.

+1

Are you alright?

Sounds like you accept that epo works, it also sounds like you are open to steriods in the 1980s (which is clearly visible for female events).

But the problem we still have is what effect blood doping plus steriods may have had pre1990.

The Spanish were really milers (maybe 3k), but traditionally it is thought that these events required a high vo2max, hence the use of epo.

I noticed Boulami on the list, then I wondered how many athletes are on the list that subsequently failed tests (Mourhit, Saidi Sief, Ramzi, Goumri).

Domestically, Western athletes had OOC testing for steroids/testosterone in the 1990s while Africans didn't, ceteris paribus, Western athletes would not be able to close the gap with Africans doing epo + steriods. Though HGH is a possibility.

Subway Surfers Addiction wrote:

rekrunner wrote:

Well, maybe depth in Europe declined, but then again, I was only looking "5-deep", over a period spanning 28 years, at a group representing all nations from five continents, or about 85% of the population, versus groups of about 6% and 3%.

I'm told that Spain is one of the best examples of EPO abuse, yet within their own group of "non-African 5 continents" Spanish performances hardly stood out, let alone compared to the Africans.

I'm not sure what you count as the end of the EPO-era, but I also notice that these European records are all currently set by athletes of East African or North African descent, with the recent exception of Moen in the marathon, and old ones like Cram in the mile and 2000m.

They were doping to win championship medals.

Check this article about the Spanish marathoners and their domination in EC & WC events during the 90s. According to report, there was organized doping with EPO where the most effective dosage was analyzed, comparing "the time trial tests of these athletes on the track before and after taking EPO." (was Ferrari behind the scene on this? Lol).

Everyone's looking for an edge wrote:

They were doping to win championship medals.

Check this article about the Spanish marathoners and their domination in EC & WC events during the 90s. According to report, there was organized doping with EPO where the most effective dosage was analyzed, comparing "the time trial tests of these athletes on the track before and after taking EPO." (was Ferrari behind the scene on this? Lol).

]

I stand corrected, 1500m + the marathon.

""It was impossible to fight on equal terms. The whole Spanish team is contaminated with performances around 2 hours 8 mins."

Five Spaniards, including Anton, and the 1995 world champion Martin Fiz, who finished eighth in Saturday's race, have run 2:08.5 or better. But Miguel Mostaza, who acts as a manager for Anton and Fiz and for Reyes Estevez, the bronze medallist in the 1500 metres." ?

1500 Metres 3:30.57 Sevilla (ESP) 24 AUG 1999 (the 3rd fastest championship time of all time, I think).

Subway Surfers Addiction wrote:

But the problem we still have is what effect blood doping plus steriods may have had pre1990.

Right. And we have evidence that the amphetamine doping started (at least) in the 50s, steroids started in the early 60s, blood transfusions in the early 70s. Especially blood doping was obviously much easier in Europe and America than in Africa 30 - 40 years ago (and let's not forget the wars and famine), explaining why a) Europeans and Americans won a lot more medals than Africans back then, and why b) Africans improved a lot more after 1990, particularly when considering this:

Subway Surfers Addiction wrote:

Domestically, Western athletes had OOC testing for steroids/testosterone in the 1990s while Africans didn't, ceteris paribus, Western athletes would not be able to close the gap with Africans doing epo + steriods. Though HGH is a possibility.

After all these years, you'd think that rekrunner would begin to acknowledge the facts... or at least start trolling with a different handle.

We can speculate what we want about doping, but like you said, we only know about doping busts that are published. Here is the men's results: pre-1990's cutoff: 01:42.11 1990 data: 1:40.9 David Rudisha KEN 17.12.88 London 09.08.2012 1:41.1 Wilson Kipketer DEN 12.12.70 Köln 24.08.1997 1:41.7 Nijel Amos BOT 15.03.94 London 09.08.2012 I would pose the same question: -- if "EPO/blood doping & androgens combo" is so effective, why only 3 from East Africa, and no one in North Africa, and no one outside of Africa could equal Sebastien Coe from 1981 (1:41.7)? Here is the Women's results: pre-1990's cutoff: 01:54.18 1990 data: 1:54.0 Pamela Jelimo KEN 15.12.89 Zürich 29.08.2008 Ceplak and others who tested hot for EPO ran too slowly to beat the 1980's cut-off. Doped Russians like Soboleva and Savinova, likely taking mouth rinse cocktails of steroids along with EPO, ran too slowly to beat the 1980's cut-off. In fact, if we only used #5 (pre-1990) Tatyana Kazankina's time from 1976 (1:54.9), we would add only one more name to the post-1990 list: Yelena Soboleva's annulled time of 1:54.8. The only one who makes the cutoff is Pamela Jelimo, who was not busted for steroids or EPO, and some wonder if she has the same "testosterone issue" as Caster Semenya. I'm not seeing a strong case for replacing transfusions with EPO boosting VO2max to new levels of performances, for men or women. It looks like on the women's side, EPO effectiveness is completely shadowed by steroids -- or we need a different measure.

Haha, EPO was the great 'equalizer' enabling the likes of El G and Lagat to compete on a level playing field at last, hahahha.

You do make something of a good point though - if PEDs were legalized, white runners would again dominate, similar to cycling, because we'd have the best labs etc.

What wars and famines were taking place in Morocco in the 70s and early 80s btw?

And why are whiteys suddenly doing much better, with some of the best emerging talent such as Jakob and the British middle-distance juniors? Just a coincidence that better testing is being introduced, or is it because of some new doping technique that can only take place in high-tech European labs?

Do you think this guy was clean? I mean he was an elite bodyguard to the Ethiopian emporer (BEFORE he started competing as a runner). He would have had access to any PED in the world at the time he wanted with zero possibility of detection.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abebe_Bikila

For me, "EPO works" or "EPO doesn't work" are faithful declarations of belief we cannot resolve with current knowledge, intended to plant a flag, end the discussion, and close your mind. I'm open to "EPO works", but more interested in defining where it works, by how much, and when it doesn't, based on real data, rather than speculation and innuendo. It can be "EPO works" for some events, while completely ineffective for others. Look again at where Russian doping success was, and was not. Or the Chinese. Above I've looked at real performances, but have no way of knowing the effect of any combination of drugs, pre-1990 or post-1990, except to look at averages and trends, and make speculations. There are many variables that have changed between 1980 and post-1990. EPO and steroids are two. Evolution of testing is a third. There are many more. I've only looked at final performance results without speculating the causes. If East African dominance comes from drugs, it should be repeatable, i.e. in Spain, one of the worst abusers. It wasn't repeated in Spain. I've repeatedly said my own "beliefs" -- you may agree or disagree: - If EPO works *at the top*, it is less than the ~1% (from 1980s) we see in non-Africans *at the top* - I'm not buying steroids for the men for distance events like 5000m, 10000m and marathon - We must look for other "local" reasons to explain East African and North African dominance of up to 3% (from 1980s), not "global" reasons like EPO - If anything, high altitude East Africans should have inherent oxygen-related advantages, and training at altitude should make EPO less effective, if not superfluous. The benefits are not strictly cumulative. - Steroids and Testosterone and other male hormones work, especially for women - Your "Western" OOC testing may be true for some countries, but is it true for ALL? It seems like when it suits, OOC testing is extremely effective. Then in the next thread, it is completely beatable and useless. It doesn't ring true at all when we look at the history of cycling. It doesn't ring true for countries like Russia and China. Recall, I'm only looking for 5 athletes over 28 years able to beat 1980s standards, even the busted ones. I found 36 non-African men in six events (assuming no duplicates) after the introduction of this "game changing" drug that promises 3% improvement for top athletes. In all my data, there are 0 Russian and Chinese male performances, but 161 Russian and 154 Chinese female performances. More real data: Spain was strongest in 3000m, with 3 making the cutoff (Isaac Viciosa, Manuel Pancorbo, Enrique Molina) -- I know -- who? Only Viciosa was in the Top-5 of "5 continents". Otherwise, only Cacho (1500m), Fabián Roncero (10000m), and Julio Rey (marathon) made the cut-off. Cacho was 1st, Roncero was 5th, and Rey (EPO doper) was 12th, in "5 continents". Poster-boy Ramzi (CERA doper) made the 1500m cut-off, but was 6th fastest North African, out of the top 5. Mourhit was 4th, 2nd, and 2nd fastest North African in 3000m, 5000m, and 10000m respectively. Ali Saidi-Sief was 7th, 2nd, and 6th fastest North African in 1500m, 3000m, and 5000m respectively. Goumri was 12th, 4th, 3rd, and 2nd fastest North African in 3000m, 5000m, 10000m and marathon respectively. None of them were strong factors against East Africans, except Mourhit in 3000m.

Subway Surfers Addiction wrote:

Are you alright?

Sounds like you accept that epo works, it also sounds like you are open to steriods in the 1980s (which is clearly visible for female events).

But the problem we still have is what effect blood doping plus steriods may have had pre1990.

The Spanish were really milers (maybe 3k), but traditionally it is thought that these events required a high vo2max, hence the use of epo.

I noticed Boulami on the list, then I wondered how many athletes are on the list that subsequently failed tests (Mourhit, Saidi Sief, Ramzi, Goumri).

Domestically, Western athletes had OOC testing for steroids/testosterone in the 1990s while Africans didn't, ceteris paribus, Western athletes would not be able to close the gap with Africans doing epo + steriods. Though HGH is a possibility.

I'm more than willing to acknowledge facts. Are you willing to acknowledge your beliefs?

casual obsever wrote:

After all these years, you'd think that rekrunner would begin to acknowledge the facts... or at least start trolling with a different handle.

Coevett wrote:

What wars and famines were taking place in Morocco in the 70s and early 80s btw?

I said in Africa, not in all African countries. Ask google, if you really don't know.

Coevett wrote:

And why are whiteys suddenly doing much better, with some of the best emerging talent such as Jakob and the British middle-distance juniors? Just a coincidence that better testing is being introduced, or is it because of some new doping technique that can only take place in high-tech European labs?

Kenyans have been losing the advantage of (next to no) OOC testing. Makes a difference whether you can increase your Hct as you please before competition, or whether you have to limit yourself to the 10 - 15% allowed by the ABP.

And the Aden and Rosa groups have to hold back, as they are being target tested.

Plus Diack is out - maybe the IAAF doesn't accept bribes anymore?

rekrunner wrote:

I've repeatedly said my own "beliefs" -- you may agree or disagree:

- If EPO works *at the top*, it is less than the ~1% (from 1980s) we see in non-Africans *at the top*

- I'm not buying steroids for the men for distance events like 5000m, 10000m and marathon

You should buy the steroids, as there are quite a few examples on top of the studies.

That in turn shows your 1% estimate EPO benefit to be more than questionable, for the dopers had to cut back on steroids while adding EPO (which allowed them to use fewer or smaller blood transfusions).

Thus EPO added, steroids + blood transfusions decreased : 1% gain. (Roughly of course, because that ignores training + nutrition + track improvements.)

Anabolic steroids have the biggest impact for female runners in shorter distances (100-800m). That is why the fastest times have been set by Eastern European runners in the 80s in 400m as well as in 800m.

Maybe you do need a different measure Gary. And "doping busts" are clear cut and allows for the analysis of progression trends, PBs, competition record & performance post-ban for those who returned to competition. For example, Ceplak had a big 3 second jump in one year before she set her sizzling 1:55 PB. And when she came back from her ban, she was crap never running anything near her fastest times and not even coming close to breaking 2 again. Another 800 female: Halima Hachlaf (1:58.27) cut ~6 freaking seconds in 2 yrs going from 2:04 to 1:58. ?. She was sanctioned for anomalies in her ABP - no proof of androgens. And Hachlaf has the rare distinction of having a family member banned for doping as her brother, Abdelkader, was banned in 04 (must run in the family ?).

So, show me where Ceplak & Hachlaf were using androgens? The record shows an EPO positive & anomalies on a passport, respectively. Where's the freaking roids with these girls Gary? When rocket fuel became available not every 800m female used androgens. And VO2max is a major component of the 800, so rocket fuel would fit right into that equation (geez...Imagine that). But it's probably a waste of time to keep digging up 800m females banned/sanctioned for EPO or hematological anomalies who showed rapid performance jumps when you will (and have in the past) chalk it off to BS like improved nutrition, yoga, box jumps, aerodynamic bun huggers and the like. ?

rekrunner wrote:

- Steroids and Testosterone and other male hormones work, especially for women

I don't know about that for endurance events as the studies show otherwise:

rekrunner wrote:

For me, "EPO works" or "EPO doesn't work" are faithful declarations of belief we cannot resolve with current knowledge, intended to plant a flag, end the discussion, and close your mind.

I'm open to "EPO works", but more interested in defining where it works, by how much, and when it doesn't, based on real data, rather than speculation and innuendo.

Natural EPO production is part of homeostasis. Synthetic EPO injection is not.

Homeostasis is real not imaginary. Magic potions that give super human strength are the stuff of fairy tales.

People want to believe in some kind, any kind of short cut that delivers an edge. It's part of human nature.

No-one on lestsrun in all the 15 years I've been here really wants to get to grips with the psychology of doping, never mind the actual science of homeostasis. Too much hard work.

rekrunner wrote:

If you want to know what "the biggest effect rekrunner is seeing", here is what I said at the top:

The thing that strikes me as most anomalous, when you look at athletes from "5 continents"...

1) why there were are so few examples making the cut-off, and

2) why their respective improvements were significantly smaller

during a period spanning decades, when ... there existed a "game-changing" undetectable drug that would have helped them close the gap, and "level" the playing field.

3hr_marathoner wrote:

The most striking set of numbers is:

# East-African males better than the 80's cutoffs: 16, 49, 25, 91, 101, 183

# non-African males better than the '80s cutoffs: 2, 9, 2, 8, 5, 12

So the biggest effect rekrunner is seeing that of the emerging depth of East-African talent in men's distance running which happens to coincide with the beginning of the EPO era. I doubt that any statistical method can separate the effects of these two factors.

Thanks for doing this, BTW. It took a long time to read so I can only imagine how long it took to put together.

I should have said there are two striking trends in the data. The first is the null result you note: namely the absence of a huge jump in performances coincident with the purported time of adoption of EPO. These data pretty conclusively disprove, for instance, the hypothesis that EPO has a 10% effect on the performance of the most elite endurance athletes because we don't see an order 10% drop in times. I'm not sure anyone seriously believed this, but if so, it should be put to rest. I think we can rule out 5% as well. I don't think the data speak conclusively to a smaller but still useful advantage, however, and I'm not encouraged about looking into the data more deeply in the hopes of settling this because of conflating factor which is the second trend: the dramatic rise in the depth of times driven by East Africa.

One thing that concerns me about the null result is that EPO is all about raising red blood cell counts but even before EPO there existed blood doping methods to raise RBC counts. One possibility therefore is that EPO improves performances hugely but so does the blood doping that it replaced, hence the lack of an abrupt drop in the fastest times when EPO was introduced.

Thanks for putting this together. It was interesting to read.

From the evidence I've seen in this thread, I don't think we can attribute the changes you observed to EPO. I think the most we can conclude is that "East Africa has improved far more than the rest of the world since 1990." However, I don't think this evidence can help us draw any causal relationship.

One question for rekrunner - how did you get the data from all-athletics? Is there a way to download data, or did you have to scrape the site?

Women in the 800 should be allowed to dope fully in order to keep up with the dudes who the CAS is allowing to compete in that event.