Would Lagat have medaled the Rio 1500m?

Lagat is 42 years old and has never run a 400 that fast in his life, so I'm going with no

He lined up against Lagat in the 5th Avenue Mile in 2012. Centro came out on top there as well.

1 3 Matthew Centrowitz 22 Eugene OR Nike 03:52.4 $5000

2 1 Bernard Lagat 37 Tucson AZ Nike 03:52.9

3 2 Leonel Manzano 28 Austin TX Nike 03:53.1

4 14 Craig Huffer 22 Ann Arbor MI Australia 03:53.5

5 7 Ryan Gregson 22 Australia Nike 03:53.7

6 4 David Torrence 26 San Francisco CA Nike 03:53.8

7 5 Craig Miller 25 Madison WI New Balance 03:54.2

8 10 Elliott Heath 23 Palo Alto CA Nike OTC 03:54.3

9 8 Garrett Heath 26 Palo Alto CA Saucony 03:54.4

10 6 Jordan McNamara 25 Eugene OR Nike OTC 03:56.5

11 17 A.J. Acosta 24 Eugene OR 03:57.7

12 12 Haron Lagat 29 Lubbok TX Kenya adidas 03:58.4

13 16 Donn Cabral 22 Glastonbury CT 03:59.1

14 9 Cam Levins 23 Black Creek BC Canada Nike 03:59.1

15 15 Liam Boylan-Pett 27 Washington DC 04:04.8

Here is what Lagat had to say about the race ""I started pushing at 100 to go because I knew these two gentlemen [Centrowitz and Manzano] would be in pursuit, and that’s what happened. With 50 meters to go, a great miler just passed me."

If Centro could hold off Mahk I don't see how you could say there is anyone that would have surely beat him in that situation

Would've, could've, should've!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BALONEY! They all had the same chance.

Let me get this right.

The thinking is that Lagat would have had a chance to medal in the 1500 in 2016 because the the winning time was 3:50.0 and he has a good kick.

Even though he was 41 and his best 1500m time in the last couple years is 3:41.

But in 2011, when Lagat was the reigning 1500m Bronze medalist and had a qualifying time of 3:32 and went on to get Silver in the 5000 that year, he couldn't beat Centro in a race that was won in 3:47.6 at USATF.

Noperest wrote:

Face it, Centro used great tactics combined with luck and tremendous flailing by his competition to win gold. Never will happen again and I'd put money in never seeing Centro line up in 1500 with that type of competition again.--- He's knows he was lucky and doesn't want future comps to reflect that!

Since 2011 Centro has appeared in the final of an Olympic or WC championship 5 times. He finished 3,2,4,8,1. Name a single runner that has been more consistent in the 1500 in this period in championship races.

During the same period he won 4 US Outdoor titles and finished 2nd to Mazano in 2012 - the year Mazano won silver. He also won a indoor Gold (plus an NCAA title). It's absurd to say the Centro is just lucky.

Great post! I would love to see someone put together the list of the top 1500m runners comparing their finishes in the 1500m since 2011. Centro is an amazingly consistent championship racerhaters is the only explanation. i don't like centro's personality, but I must admit he is a damn good runner when it matters

GFR wrote:

Noperest wrote:

Face it, Centro used great tactics combined with luck and tremendous flailing by his competition to win gold. Never will happen again and I'd put money in never seeing Centro line up in 1500 with that type of competition again.--- He's knows he was lucky and doesn't want future comps to reflect that!

Since 2011 Centro has appeared in the final of an Olympic or WC championship 5 times. He finished 3,2,4,8,1. Name a single runner that has been more consistent in the 1500 in this period in championship races.

During the same period he won 4 US Outdoor titles and finished 2nd to Mazano in 2012 - the year Mazano won silver. He also won a indoor Gold (plus an NCAA title). It's absurd to say the Centro is just lucky.

no

Guys like Mo and Lagat have amazing kicks - for 5k runners. What is wrong with everyone not to realize that these guys will fare WORSE in a slow race rather than better? You are used to seeing them race guys like Galen Rupp, that's why they look so fast on the last lap. Their only chance would be to push the pace from the beginning. Either of them probably would have been DFL in that final. Lagat had a great 1500m kick back in the day, but in Rio he would have been out of the picture (literally) at the finish. I'm not even sure El G in his prime could have won given where they were after 3 laps - a Noah Ngeny type would have had a much better chance.

Kiprop has been a shaky racer lately, especially in championship races. Don't get me wrong he is still an unnatural beast being 6'3 as skinny as he is. But who we're all forgetting about is Ronald Kwemoi; who is a great racer and ran 3:28 in the 1500 at the age of 19, he ran 3:30 earlier in 2016 in a great tactical race. Had he not have fallen, he would wave won. But credits to Centro for he is a superb, yet very lucky tactician.

Honestly it was luck by Centro but nonetheless it was insane to watch the turnover. IF Kenya had Manangoi or Cheruiyot racing it would've been a steady race. Possibly low 3:30s & Makhloufi ran really stupid he should've moved up after realizing how slow it was. Same with Souleiman & mark my words London will not be that slow. Kenyans will take it out hard

Are you seriously telling me that El G in him prime would not win?!?! His Pb's are all better than Centro from the 1500 up. His 800 probably could've rivaled centro but his pr came in 95 and he was in his prime in 98/99. El G is 4 seconds faster in the 1500, 7 seconds in the mile and 30 seconds in the 5k. El G is more than capable of beating Centro in his prime.

run sensation wrote:

Are you seriously telling me that El G in him prime would not win?!?! His Pb's are all better than Centro from the 1500 up. His 800 probably could've rivaled centro but his pr came in 95 and he was in his prime in 98/99. El G is 4 seconds faster in the 1500, 7 seconds in the mile and 30 seconds in the 5k. El G is more than capable of beating Centro in his prime.

I said given where they were at the end of the third lap. Unless El G was ahead of Centro, he probably would not have won. El G did not have a devastating kick, he won by driving for home early or pushing the pace the whole time. Did he ever run 50.5 to close any race?

Look, it's simple. El G, Lagat, Farah are strength guys when it comes to the 1500m. As great as they were, they can't win against speed-oriented guys after jogging 4:20+ mile pace until a lap to go. At that point it's all about position and raw speed, not who can time trial the fastest 1500m with rabbits. The 2000 Olympics weren't nearly as slow, but El G got walked down by a guy with better top-end speed on the final stretch.

I've wondered this, surprised nobody asked this before. But this is the answer I must agree with. I actually say Farah would have had the better chance than Lagat, but certainly wouldn't favor him.

Lagat is a cheater, when centro has a coach that is essentially a drug lord and guru. The same coach that has been under investigation by usada, 20+ people have gave evidence to also suggest the same... ya, makes sense.

9/10

Right, as people also forget.

Centro ran a 27.x leading up to the bill.

With 200 to go, Centro had put the field through a 52.x last 400 and then followed that up with another 25.

The 50.6 was excellent, but the 1:17.x last 600 (1:43 pace) was really was did the damage.

Centro has been a better 1500 runner than Lagat since 2011.

Star wrote:

But in 2011, when Lagat was the reigning 1500m Bronze medalist and had a qualifying time of 3:32 and went on to get Silver in the 5000 that year, he couldn't beat Centro in a race that was won in 3:47.6 at USATF.

That said, Galen also beat Lagat over 5000m in the OT and got his a$$ handed to him in the OG. The results of one race don't necessarily say anything at all about the potential results in another.

GFR wrote:

Since 2011 Centro has appeared in the final of an Olympic or WC championship 5 times. He finished 3,4,2,8,1. Name a single runner that has been more consistent in the 1500 in this period in championship races.

In those same 5 races Kiprop finished 1, 12, 1, 1, 6

He had a 3-2 record over Centro and three times as many titles

Ranking their best finishes

Centro/ Kiprop

1/1

2/1

3/1

4/6

8/12

Iguider was decent with 5, 3, SF out, 3, 5

He went 2-2 against Centro in finals (2-3 if you count Ig not making a final)

I agree that Centro is a great championship runner.