He ran the 5000/10000 at the trials because he thought he had a better chance at medalling instead of the stacked 1500m field. He then closed the 5000m trials in 52.82 and made it look easy. Centro closed in 50.62 after a slow race. Would this be the perfect race for the master tactician?
I believe so, however it makes you wonder, could Mo Farah have won, his tactics are also extremely good, he can close in 49 off a slow 5k.
??YES?? wrote:
I believe so, however it makes you wonder, could Mo Farah have won, his tactics are also extremely good, he can close in 49 off a slow 5k.
Agreed, many kickers could have out kicked Centro in a 3:50 race. Hell, at that pace, Rudisha would have clobbered Centro. So would Farah and Murphy. Easily. ----They wouldn't have succumbed to Centro's block at the bell lap either. Farah would have blown by @ 500 to go, Rudisha with 300 to go, or Murphy with 50 to go. Lagat would have cooked em all from the beginning, Kiprop excluded. Face it, Centro used great tactics combined with luck and tremendous flailing by his competition to win gold. Never will happen again and I'd put money in never seeing Centro line up in 1500 with that type of competition again.--- He's knows he was lucky and doesn't want future comps to reflect that!
Noperest wrote:
??YES?? wrote:I believe so, however it makes you wonder, could Mo Farah have won, his tactics are also extremely good, he can close in 49 off a slow 5k.
Agreed, many kickers could have out kicked Centro in a 3:50 race. Hell, at that pace, Rudisha would have clobbered Centro. So would Farah and Murphy. Easily. ----They wouldn't have succumbed to Centro's block at the bell lap either. Farah would have blown by @ 500 to go, Rudisha with 300 to go, or Murphy with 50 to go. Lagat would have cooked em all from the beginning, Kiprop excluded. Face it, Centro used great tactics combined with luck and tremendous flailing by his competition to win gold. Never will happen again and I'd put money in never seeing Centro line up in 1500 with that type of competition again.--- He's knows he was lucky and doesn't want future comps to reflect that!
So, let's see. Kiprop, Makhloufi, Souleiman, and Iguider, all of whom have run under 3:30, were unable to clobber Centro Jr. when it counted. And they all took a shot at it.
But Farah, Rudisha, and Murphy could all have clobbered Centro Jr. This is ventolinesque...
dose of reality wrote:
Noperest wrote:Agreed, many kickers could have out kicked Centro in a 3:50 race. Hell, at that pace, Rudisha would have clobbered Centro. So would Farah and Murphy. Easily. ----They wouldn't have succumbed to Centro's block at the bell lap either. Farah would have blown by @ 500 to go, Rudisha with 300 to go, or Murphy with 50 to go. Lagat would have cooked em all from the beginning, Kiprop excluded. Face it, Centro used great tactics combined with luck and tremendous flailing by his competition to win gold. Never will happen again and I'd put money in never seeing Centro line up in 1500 with that type of competition again.--- He's knows he was lucky and doesn't want future comps to reflect that!
So, let's see. Kiprop, Makhloufi, Souleiman, and Iguider, all of whom have run under 3:30, were unable to clobber Centro Jr. when it counted. And they all took a shot at it.
But Farah, Rudisha, and Murphy could all have clobbered Centro Jr. This is ventolinesque...
The point is that the Kiprop and the like let it be tactical until the end when it was too late whereas Farah and Rudisha would have taken control with longer to go. But the 1500m final was a stroke of luck for Centro. If Kiprop was actually on it, Centro shouldn't have won. But, it's all about what version of you shows up that day
??YES?? wrote:
I believe so, however it makes you wonder, could Mo Farah have won, his tactics are also extremely good, he can close in 49 off a slow 5k.
I'm not saying he hasn't, but I'd be curious to know which 5k farah closed in 49. Thanks.
DB Snooper wrote:
??YES?? wrote:I believe so, however it makes you wonder, could Mo Farah have won, his tactics are also extremely good, he can close in 49 off a slow 5k.
I'm not saying he hasn't, but I'd be curious to know which 5k farah closed in 49. Thanks.
It was some 14:xx Mo-show jog-and-kick in England.
It was kind of embarrassing that he kicked that hard in such an unimpressive run.
it was abt 50pt. also to earlier poster. if race played out the same. i agree mo probably wouldve held lead with centro and mightve won. def close though. as for rudisha, no way hed try to kick from further out than 400 hes an 800 runner not a strength guy. id wager hed try to rely on his finishing speed to win
No. First Lagat would have had to make it through prelims. Then if he made the final, he likely would not have went to the front like Centro (assuming the race plays out exactly same way the first 3 laps). Centro avoided the circus behind him and ran a perfect race for the day. No one in the field expected the race to go that slow and have not one person try to push the pace including Centro. Lagat likely would have started in the back or mid pack for the first part of the race expecting the pace to pick up. When that does not happen after 2.5 laps, he would have to navigate through the mess of all the runners jockeying for position for the last lap to contend for the win. I'm taking Centro who remains relaxed up front, out of the mess, and running in lane 1 the whole race vs old man legs that had to jockey for position and likely run out to lane 3 just to have a shot the last lap.
dose of reality wrote:
So, let's see. Kiprop, Makhloufi, Souleiman, and Iguider, all of whom have run under 3:30, were unable to clobber Centro Jr. when it counted. And they all took a shot at it.
But Farah, Rudisha, and Murphy could all have clobbered Centro Jr. This is ventolinesque...
It's a little ridiculous. Centro Jr. has silver, and bronze medals from world championships and a gold at a world indoor championship.
So either he somehow keeps getting lucky in championship events, or maybe he runs very well in championship settings and keeps outperforming where he should based on time alone...
master mind wrote:
He ran the 5000/10000 at the trials because he thought he had a better chance at medalling instead of the stacked 1500m field. He then closed the 5000m trials in 52.82 and made it look easy. Centro closed in 50.62 after a slow race. Would this be the perfect race for the master tactician?
2011 USATF 1500m:
1 Matthew Centrowitz Oregon 3:47.63
2 Bernard Lagat Nike 3:47.96
3 Leonel Manzano Nike 3:48.16
4 Andrew Wheating Oregon TC Elite 3:48.19
5 William Leer Nike 3:48.20
6 David Torrence Nike 3:48.31
After this race, Lagat mostly gave up on the 1500. He doesn't like getting beat by Americans. I don't think he lined up with Centro again at 1500 or mile until 2015 Millrose. Lagat had shown very good form that season but Centro beat him easily. Centro's competition in that race was Willis, who also had no problem with Lagat.
So Lagat couldn't beat Centro in 2011 in a 3:47 race but he's going to beat him in 2016? No. And Lagat's not outkicking Makhloufi or Wills either. Big difference between 50 point and 52-53.
And, by the way, these are the official splits from Rio. Centro closed in 50.5. Makh and Wills the same No hundredths because the intermediate splits were only taken in tenths.
http://www.runmichigan.com/mynews/data/upimages/subfolders/results/atm015101_raceanalysis_2016_08_20_fa422345_4b53_492c_88e4_83ad0877c893.pdf??YES?? wrote:
he can close in 49 off a slow 5k.
No he cannot.
Mo would have won. Historic triple.
what it is wrote:
DB Snooper wrote:I'm not saying he hasn't, but I'd be curious to know which 5k farah closed in 49. Thanks.
It was some 14:xx Mo-show jog-and-kick in England.
It was kind of embarrassing that he kicked that hard in such an unimpressive run.
50.89 isn't 49.
The Mo Show wouldn't have gone according to script.
Actually, I think if Robbie had not been DQ'd, and had advanced to the final, that race may have been set up for him to win.
Alternate Reality wrote:
Actually, I think if Robbie had not been DQ'd, and had advanced to the final, that race may have been set up for him to win.
I think Robbie would have had too many to go by as he doesn't like to stay near the front.
Rab Bit wrote:
Alternate Reality wrote:Actually, I think if Robbie had not been DQ'd, and had advanced to the final, that race may have been set up for him to win.
I think Robbie would have had too many to go by as he doesn't like to stay near the front.
The only person who seriously believes that Robby has a world-beating kick...is Robby. I can think of no other reason why he would consistently put himself in the VERY BACK of the field and try to sprint past (or in Rio, straight through) everybody in the last 150. I hope that DQ was a wake-up call regarding his consistently godawful strategy.
Anyway, no, Lagat would not have medaled in the Rio 1500.
you guys forget that they had to qualify in their countries and then run rounds at the olympics to get to the final that was slow. Then, they had to be in the right position at the bell to win. At some point, Centro knew that he was going to need to run a sub 51 last lap to win, and that he had to be in 1st place at the bell so that anyone who was going to beat him would have to run a faster 400m. other guys may have even run a faster final 400m than him, but he ran less distance so he won. it was a brilliant presence of mind to do that.the people in the final were the best (fastest) 1500m runners on earth, and that includes ability to weather the rounds and stay strong. not just PR strength.
master mind wrote:
He ran the 5000/10000 at the trials because he thought he had a better chance at medalling instead of the stacked 1500m field. He then closed the 5000m trials in 52.82 and made it look easy. Centro closed in 50.62 after a slow race. Would this be the perfect race for the master tactician?
No
who cares...lagat is cheater