Today is Alexa Efraimson's 20th birthday - How good do you think she'll end up being?

lkgkj wrote:

Anyone want to guess on this one?

1500 METRES VIEW GRAPH

PERFORMANCE PLACE DATE

2016 4:03.94 Greenville, SC 04 JUN

2015 4:09.31 Birmingham (Alexander), GBR 07 JUN

2014 4:04.76 Paris Saint-Denis (Stade de France) 05 JUL

2013 4:08.49 Birmingham (Alexander), GBR 30 JUN

2013 4:08.49 New York City (Icahn), NY 25 MAY

2012 4:01.59 Roma (Stadio Olimpico) 31 MAY

2011 4:00.06 Bruxelles (Boudewijnstadion) 16 SEP

2010 4:02.40 Lausanne (Pontaise) 08 JUL

2009 4:09.95 Luzern 15 JUL

2008 4:06.93 Luzern 16 JUL

2007 4:17.18 13 MAY

Uceny

Except Eraimson and Cain cannot be compared to college runners because they turned pro as teenagers. For college runners, lack of progression can be hidden by team goals or academic pursuits or social life, but for a pro, lack of progression cannot. It's a single-minded focus with no distractions, and if that focus does not bring results then it's plain as day with excuses difficult if not impossible. That is probably why Cain went back to college -- to hedge her bets and reduce the pressure that being a pro brings.

Meseret Defar and Tirunesh Dibaba were running like 8:40 for 3000 and 15:06 for 5000 at 15-16 years old, sprinter Angela Williams was breaking age records at age 10 and she wound up a 4 time NCAA champion and Olympian.

No truth that early success means you will be burn out as an adult

Defar 15:08 at 16, Tirunesh Dibaba won Worlds at 17-18.

other sports Floyd Mayweather jr was winning tournaments at 8 years old, John Smith and Cael Sanderson and Dan Gable were state champions in high school.

Burnout is a myth, the only reason a prodigy does not become the best in the world is lousy coaching.

If Efraimson is not breaking world records and winning World and Olympic Gold medals the reason would be lousy coaching, no reason to sugar coat it.

douglas burke wrote:

other sports Floyd Mayweather jr was winning tournaments at 8 years old, John Smith and Cael Sanderson and Dan Gable were state champions in high school.

Burnout is a myth, the only reason a prodigy does not become the best in the world is lousy coaching.

If Efraimson is not breaking world records and winning World and Olympic Gold medals the reason would be lousy coaching, no reason to sugar coat it.

This is your dumbest post. That's saying a lot too.

You think no other female is capable of edging her out for those laurels?

She was too good for college competition. And her "club" coach convinceced her changing coaches would be bad. He had a vested interest in her staying with him - he is now a pro coach. For her, she lost to college kids at her last race, so maybe racing in college and learning strategy would have helped... hell both Jenny Simpson and centrowicz have said in the last year college running made them who they are and why they won't medals...

What is Klosterhalfen's secret? Perhaps Efraimson and all of the other high school phenoms should follow what she does. Klosterhalfen is nicely improving each year and has rocketed past Alexa and Cain in times. 4:04 indoors is fantastic!!

Her coaches just assume she will magically learn how to win races. Even though she jumped past the phase that teaches winning races. That showed this weekend, she doesn't know how to race.

Georgie Clarke is not a good example to use as her career ended after multiple stress fractures due to an eating disorder.

Cain was phenomenal and then puberty hit her. Some girls don't change much while others gain wider hips and more curves etc. And no, I am not suggesting there is anything wrong with this. By comparison, it seems that puberty has not visibly changed Efraimson's body proportions.

I don't think there is anything to worry about with respect to Efraimson's path at current. She ran really fast at a young age, so progression is obviously going to less than many girls going from HS to college.

Regression is rife within females who are phenomenal prior to puberty. Anna Laman at Stanford is a good example. She ran 4.13 as a 15 year old/2.05 as a 17 year old, and now a junior, she has only managed to run 4.29 /2.07 in college.

One potential scenario for Efraimson would be to train with fellow Nike athletes Rowbury and Hassan at the nearby Nike campus at least a day or two each week. Those two could push her to the next level in workouts.

Unreached potential wrote:

One potential scenario for Efraimson would be to train with fellow Nike athletes Rowbury and Hassan at the nearby Nike campus at least a day or two each week. Those two could push her to the next level in workouts.

True, or for her to train with BTC

I coach HS girls and it's very obvious that most girls go through something(puberty) while in high school that usually results in setback or plateau for about 8-12 months. This is almost always located sometime during their sophomore year in HS.

So we think Cain hit this part of her life way later? It is possible. Also I think there is something to high mileage maybe holding off on the puberty for sometime which is why I think in some of these phenoms the crash is so hard. If you ran a lot and are able to hold off puberty for a year or 2 you get extra time pre-puberty and are running a lot so you are going to be a stud. But nature always catches up.

The only people who can testify authoritatively are Salazar and Hickey. They won't for obvious professional reasons. Some day we will get a coherent explanation for the stagnation factor of these young American athletes. On the flip side, how do you explain Laura Muir who has startled us by progressing from ordinary to spectacular over the last two years?

lkgkj wrote:

Don't look too much into her lack of progression in the last year. Care to name this American sweetheart? Should we have crucified Jenny Simpson from 2009-2014?? 4 years of non-improvement.

1500 METRES VIEW GRAPH

PERFORMANCE PLACE DATE

2016 3:58.19 Paris Saint-Denis (Stade de France) 27 AUG

2015 3:57.30 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 17 JUL

2014 3:57.22 Paris Saint-Denis (Stade de France) 05 JUL

2013 4:00.48 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 19 JUL

2012 4:04.07 Rovereto (Stadio Quercia) 04 SEP

2011 4:03.54 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 22 JUL

2010 4:03.63 New York City (Icahn), NY 12 JUN

2009 3:59.90 Eugene, OR 07 JUN

2008 4:11.36 Luzern 16 JUL

The giant difference between simpson and the others is that simpson wasnt primarily a 1500 runner until 2010-2011, before that she focused on the steeplechase. That 2009 Prefontaine race was the definition of lightning in a bottle also, as her only other 1500 that year (that i can find) was a 4:08 race at oregon relays. If you put that into the graph, it looks a lot smoother in terms of development.

Some other reasons you cant compare her to the rest:

-Jenny was far more accomplished internationally (1500 gold in 2011, silver in 2013)

-The world as a whole was slower in that time frame, as shown by the # of women under 4:00 along with the world lead (2011: 0/4:00.06, 2012: 7/3:56.54, 2013: 4/3:56.60, 2014: 7/3:57.00, 2015: 8/3:50.07, 9/3:55.22

All this obsession with prediction. The point of sports is that it is unscripted. Nobody knows how good she will be, that is why it is interesting. Regarding the early-pro route vs the collegiate route; I can understand the impulse to condemn those who go pro early, because there are some salient examples of wunderkinden who never matured into the stars we hoped they would be. On the other hand, many athletes born outside North America essentially "go pro" early because they the collegiate system does not exist in their regions. Many of them develop slowly and mature in their 20s, as we hope Cain and Efraimson will. Best of luck to them.

lkgkj wrote:

Last one -

1500 METRES VIEW GRAPH

PERFORMANCE PLACE DATE

2004 4:09.74 Sacramento, CA 16 JUL

2003 4:01.69 Roma (Stadio Olimpico) 11 JUL

2002 3:59.10 Zürich 16 AUG

2001 4:00.38 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 20 JUL

2000 3:57.40 Oslo (Bislett) 28 JUL

1998 3:58.38 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 08 AUG

1997 4:03.50 Sheffield 29 JUN

1995 4:05.14 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 25 JUL

1994 4:06.60 Monaco (Stade Louis II) 02 AUG

1993 4:15.07 San José, CA 29 MAY

1991 4:15.54 Tokyo (Olympic Stadium) 29 AUG

1987 4:09.10 San José (Estadio Nacional), CRC 27 JUN

1986 4:23.83 Athína (Olympic Stadium) 20 JUL

Suzy Favor-Hamilton

I always find this obsession over the career paths of former high school phenoms, always girls, not boys, to be more than a little creepy... That's Let's Run.

jungleroy59 wrote:

I always find this obsession over the career paths of former high school phenoms, always girls, not boys, to be more than a little creepy... That's Let's Run.

Um, ever heard of German Fernandez? Or Lukas Verzbicas? Or Alan Webb? Or Galen Rupp? If somehow you haven't, do a quick search of these forums, you'll find about a billion threads critiquing their progression from HS all the way through the present.

How can you seriously say that letsrun focuses more on career paths of former high school girl phenoms than boy phenoms...