Lausanne 1000m...get ready...

Makhloufi

52.2

1:18.80

1:46.1

2:13.08

Runners often pop big PRs right after the Olympics because they are in peak fitness and have energy built up because of the rest between their Olympic final and next race.

But there is also often a mental let down.

You get what you get wrote:

Ngeny's splits:

400: 49.6

600: 1:16.5

800: 1:44.6

1000: 2:11.96

Coes's splits:

400: 51.15

1:17.8

1:44.5

2:12.18

I think Kiprop and Makhloufi have the best chance of winning, Souleiman has an outside chance.

Those splits for Coe aren't quite right.

The pacer went through 400 in 51.15, Coe went through in 51.3.

And the 600 is wrong. Went through in 1:18.4 not 1:17.8.

400 - 51.3

600- 1:18.4

800- 1:44.56

1000m - 2:12.18

Bad Wigins wrote:

kartelite wrote:

That's obviously wrong, as that would mean an 800m WR en route lol.

1:43 won't be a WR unless Caster's there.

Are you ignorant or just bad at math? 1:15 for 600m is 1:40 pace for 800m. That's under the 800m WR.

kartelite wrote:

Bad Wigins wrote:

1:43 won't be a WR unless Caster's there.

Are you ignorant or just bad at math? 1:15 for 600m is 1:40 pace for 800m. That's under the 800m WR.

Apparently you're bad at math or reading, or both. He's obviously adding 28 (half of 56) to 1:15 which is 1:43.

Embarrassing to call someone ignorant when you're the fool.

Mrr82 wrote:

kartelite wrote:

Are you ignorant or just bad at math? 1:15 for 600m is 1:40 pace for 800m. That's under the 800m WR.

Apparently you're bad at math or reading, or both. He's obviously adding 28 (half of 56) to 1:15 which is 1:43.

Embarrassing to call someone ignorant when you're the fool.

This thread was started by the OP announcing 1:15 for 600m. No one was saying at any point that the objective was to do 25-25-25-28-28, some other poster was using a 1:15 + 56 as context vis-à-vis the world record. The only discussion about pace has been regarding the first 600m, and as I said that would be ridiculous, since a fast 1000m should ideally have even splits which would mean an 800m WR en route.

Star wrote:

Runners often pop big PRs right after the Olympics because they are in peak fitness and have energy built up because of the rest between their Olympic final and next race.

But there is also often a mental let down.

"there is a 50% chance tomorrow will be sunny, and a 50% chance of a torrential downpour lasting all day"

lot depends on weather & jetlag

they are all going to be jet-lagged, so it's unlikely anyone runs to potential

if weather is good, then someone coud muster enough for a dip into 2'12s

Asbel, if he was at peak ( he probably is but ran bad race in rio ) i'd expect his perfect 1500 to be ~ 3'25.75 for WR shape

his 400 shape coud be anywhere between 46.0 - 47.0

if ran "perfect race", he woud be looking at

3'25.75 / 47.00 ->

1'42.25

2'11.13

3'25.75 / 46.75 ->

1'42.01

2'10.94

3'25.75 / 46.50 ->

1'41.78

2'10.75

3'25.75 / 46.25 ->

1'41.54

2'10.56

3'25.75 / 46.00 ->

1'41.30

2'10.37

any hint of peak shape & ideal weather/race, he coud annihilate the WR into the 2'10s & low-mid end

further, i do believe Asbel is still likely a better 800/1k runner than 1500 ( his over-distance is poor ) but 1500 is glory race & i don't believe his ideal distance is 1500 & he doesn't "last 1500" perfectly even if he coud maybe go 3'25-high currently ( probably 3'25-flat/low if his range extended "perfectly" to 1500 )

he ran 1'43.1 back in '09 !!! when his 1500 was 3'32+ despite 1500 gold, so he maya always been better 800 guy than 1500 & his training/inherent ability is better suited to 800/1k than 1500

Why are these guys wasting time and energy in peak fitness running a bogus distance? Run an 800 or 1500.

calculo wrote:

further, i do believe Asbel is still likely a better 800/1k runner than 1500 ( his over-distance is poor ) but 1500 is glory race & i don't believe his ideal distance is 1500 & he doesn't "last 1500" perfectly even if he coud maybe go 3'25-high currently ( probably 3'25-flat/low if his range extended "perfectly" to 1500 )

he ran 1'43.1 back in '09 !!! when his 1500 was 3'32+ despite 1500 gold, so he maya always been better 800 guy than 1500 & his training/inherent ability is better suited to 800/1k than 1500

From the way he reportedly trains, and looking at him race, you're quite probably right about his current sweet spot. However, you're the guy who used to say he needed to add propulsive muscle to be a true middle distance force. Surely adding weight isn't going to help his ability to last over longer distances?

Can't agree that his inherent ability leans towards 800/1k though. He's a stick thin Kenyan that won World Junior Cross Country, and is rarely seen out of breath. If anything he looks like a born 3k/5k man that also has great speed and has worked on that for years.

I just received a text with an update of information for the 1000m in Lausanne. Makhloufi will NOT be running. The pacing duties have also been slightly adjusted to 52-53/1:18-1:19. Kwemoi apparently out for blood after being tripped in Rio.

None of them are capable of the World Record.

Kiprop has shown he is not in great shape with his poor performance in Rio. He certainly has never shown he possess under 47 400 pace. I'd say he may just creep inside 48.0. He's endurance based and 1:42 high looks his absolute limit over 800.

Makhloufi made an attempt on the record last year and couldn't get within a second of it. He probably has the best chance as he's got better speed than Kiprop and his 1500 ability is currently better.

Souleiman is doping and shouldn't even be in the race.

I reckon it will be won in 2:13 high.

I hear Centro is going for the AR

i think 800/1k has always been his sweet-spot even after all these years of 1500 training

it is very hard to change your sweet-spot distance, perhaps impossible

you do your best at whatever distance you choose & he's done well at 1500 but it's not his best distance

we've just seen this with maloofi : his semi & final were intrinsic, perfect possible runs of 1'42-flat & 1'41-high with just 2 days rest !!!

i remember Asbel's 1'43.1 in '09 when just 19y & he charged after kaki after his usual jogging start & nearly caught him

if he'd bothered to make some effort at the start he wouda gone well into the 1'42s & that was 7y ago !!!

that indicated to me that 800 was probably his best distance despite already being 1500 champ

looking at above estimates, he's doing just fine off virtually neutrino-level mass

i dread to think what he wouda been running if he'd actually bothered to put on some muscle in the past

definitely does help

see example of mo after joining Sal

he's physically much much stronger than before '11

unfortunately for him he's never bothered to run it hard from gun

in '14 he ran 1'43.3 walloping a prime nijel, with Asbel running something like 6+m extra on bends & easing off at end

he couda run ~ 1'42-low that day if route-1 & hard to finish line & that's off his usual slow start - much quicker if he'd bothered to go 49+/50-flat on 1st lap

he was "only" in 3'28+ shape that year

he's lived off that x-country glory for too long

he has admittedly ancient 7'42pb which is no great endurance indicator

i doubt he coud crack 7'30 now & hicham ran 7'23 !!!

usual for lot of these guys

no chance

nothing ever great over 3k let alone 5k

is that a joke ???

how many have even bothered to try it seriously outdoors ???

Souly ran 2'14.2 worth ~ 2'12-flat/low outdoors & most reckon Asbel & maloofi are superior runners

maloofi put in intrinsic runs in rio of ~ 1'42-flat & 1'41-high with just 2 days rest !!! & you don't think that he is in shape to break 2'12 ???

no

we don't know his current shape, just that he ran a poor race

in birmingham in windy meet with lack of pacing to bell he ran 3'29.3

he wouda run 3'27+ there if 0 wind & pacing to bell, so pre-games shape was fine

go fetch his 400pb

there is youtube vid of him from years ago running 48+ in an inner lane on crap track in kenya & that was virtually certainly during training & not rested

you can't run 3'26+ with no great over-distance without superb 400 speed

is this a joke ?

he already ran 48+ in kenya years ago whilst likely in training & he wasn't in 3'26+ shape back then

is this a joke ??

his 3k is 7'42pb

that is nonsense over-distance

therefore to run 3'26+ it has to be primarily off speed

maloofi put in intrinsic runs in rio of ~ 1'42-flat & 1'41-high with just 2 days rest !!!

you don't think Asbel woud be right there with him ??

i assume you never saw it

he ran it off crap 1'46+ split because of low-quality pacers

the WR was run of 1'44-mid

if maloofi had got 1'44-mid pacing last year he wouda run 2'12-flat or better

only if Asbel is injured

in birmingham Asbel looked in 3'27+ shape in ideal weather/pacing

i don't think maloofi is any better than that currently

then his doping is crap

he went out in 800 semis & he has 1'42+pb & won a bronze over 800 in '13

worth trying to estimate split schedule for various target times

from research of not too many 1k races available, IMO, the ideal splits for a 1k shoud be slowing 0.33s splits -> ~

2'14.0 :

26.1

26.4 ( 52.5 )

26.8 ( 1'19.3 )

27.2 ( 1'46.5 )

27.4 ( ~ 2'14.0 )

2'13.0 :

25.9

26.2 ( 52.1 )

26.6 ( 1'18.7 )

27.0 ( 1'45.7 )

27.2 ( ~ 2'13.0 )

2'12.0 :

25.7

26.0 ( 51.7 )

26.4 ( 1'18.1 )

26.8 ( 1'44.9 )

27.0 ( ~ 2'12.0 )

if they can work thru the jetlag & try to chase the record, the splits to aim for are

~ 51-high

1'18-flat

1'45-flat

& hold on...

2:14.2 indoors does not equal 2:12 outdoors. The new banked tracks are faster than flat ones.

For 1000m on a 200m banked track (or oversized flat track) you divide by 0.9864 to get it's value on a 200m flat track.

2:14.2 /0.9864 = 2:16.05.

"Banked 200m Tracks and Oversized Tracks (+260m) - research conclusion - there is NO statistical

difference found between performances on a “Banked 200m Track” (BT) and that of an “Oversized Track”

(OT). Therefore, the NCAA has standardized their conversions between flat 200m tracks vs BT/OT

facilities. "

BT = banked tracks, what Souleiman ran on

OT = oversized tracks.

There is no wind and the temperature is controlled for indoors.

With what's happened with his coach Aden, he was probably doped to the eyeballs anyway.

Kiprop is not a superior runner than the doped up Souleiman over 800, which is closer to 1k than the 1500.

It wasn't windy in Birmingham. The LJ was starting at same time and the women's 100m hurdles was the next event, 18 mins later.

The wind reading for the women's race was 0.3m/sec. It was sunny and the temp was 23C. Perfect conditions.

The men's LJ had a highest reading of 2.0m/sec, but the average wind speed of all the jumps in the competition was 0.31m/sec. Identical to the women's race.

Kiprop was paced and had total protection from wind up to 1000m.

His laps were paced well, 54.9, 57.0, 55.8, 41.6.

He went through 1200m in 2:47.7.

He had all the ingredients for a fast run and only needed a 54 flat at bell to run a 3:27. He only managed 55.6.

He was in 3:29 form, nowhere close to 3:27.

He certainly wasnt in 3:27 shape in Rio.

He ran 48.9 in training with competition in 2011.

How you can get 46.0 based on a run of 48.9 is beyond ridiculous.

An estimate of 47 high or 48 flat is far more realistic.

You have no actual evidence to back up that sort of time for 400m. Using your calculator is not evidence.

You assume wrong. I have seen it.

Makhloufi was drafted up to 600m. Ngeny was lucky to be paced to 750m. Most record runs at this distance only get towed to the bell.

Mak went through 600m in 1:19.0, which is 2:11.6 or WR pace. He was given perfect pacing to run at least 2:12, and it's his bad he only ran the next furlong in 27.3. It is more likely that had he gone through 600 in 1:44 mid, a 25.5 (2:07.5 pace), then he would have died terribly in the straight and been even slower.

He should have gone 26.2, 26.7 off his last 2 x 200m for a WR. He went 27.3 and then even off that much slower 200m stretch, he could only manage a 26.7. If he'd run that penultimate 200 1.1 secs faster, you think he's still going to finish as fast in 26.7?

You don't understand the physiology of running a 1000m. It's a very different event to the 8 or the 15.

Good post. Thanks

likely for 1st time

off absolutely no use when split was crap 1'46.1

he was better off going solo from 400 point & solo last 600

is this a joke ???

the pacer was outside Noah by 500m offering no drafting

pacing is about drafting

you not aware of this ???

the pacers completely screwed Noah apart from wide by 500

the opener went 49.66 !!!

utterly suicidal !!!

1'41s have been run off slower 400s !!!

this doesn't include fact Noah ran ~ 6m extra on 1st bend as he coudn't get into lane 1 by 20m which was required by math from his start in outer lane 4 !!!

his intrinsic 1st 400 off estimated 49.9 with ~ 6m extra on 1st bend was

~ 49.1+ !!!

in start of a 1k !!!

i'll give you the math for when Noah shouda ~ got tight into lane 1, the 30cm from kerb :

...

no

imprecise

it has to be directly drafted to bell

noah wasn't

maloofi had nonsense 1'46+ to bell

he needn't have bothered with pacer & kicked past at 400 in

is this a joke ??

did you not read

"0.33s slowing 200s for 1k" ??

that is not far off claiming 50.9 is perfect split for 800WR as it's proportioned time for 1'40.8

is this a joke ???

see previous tables

1'46.1 was "perfect split" for

~ 2'13.5

maoofi already screwd as his 1st 400 was ~ 52.5 which is pace for

~ 2'14.0

all maloofi did was make best of a bad job & dragged 2'14.0 pace at 400 to a 2'13.0

eh ?

learn about the sport

it is little value whatever his next split was

he was consigned to ~ 2'14.0 by 400 & just dragged that rubbish down to 2'13.0

is this a joke ???

similar to thinking 50.9 is perfect split for 1'40.8 ???

no

he ran intrinsic back-to-back 800s in rio of

~ 1'42.0

& then

~ 1'41.8

he already had intrinsic ~ 1'42-low shape in stockholm-'12 after games 4y ago, so likely in at worst 1'43-flat shape in his 1k in perfect race

1'44-mid/high wouda been more than enough for a 2'11.8 & he was in shape to do it providing he had enough rest for it from training

no

i gave estimates above for "ideal splits" for target 1k times

look them up

eh ??

is this a joke ??

i gave ideal splits for various target times & you waste time scrabbling over how he messed around with his pace when i already told you that his opening 400 indicated likely

~ 2'14.0

??

he made herculean effort to drag that down to 2'13.0

i didn't ask for any physiology although happy to discuss it

physiology is not the clock splits

it is the clock splits

kindly make your physiology somewhat comparable to clock splits ??

no

it is a blown up 800

800 requires 0.25s slowing 200s for fastest possible 800 for anyone with concomitant 1s +ve splits built in

1k requires ~ 0.33s slowing 200s...