Mo and Galen really benefit from the Kenyans pushing the pace. What we don't know is how family life has impacted Galen. In the past he's trained well in relative silence and shown up when it comes. His life situation is a little different now. He could be great or terrible, especially if air quality becomes an issue.
I like how big of a tossup this race is. Except for Mo. He wins this race 95 out of 100 times.
Farah does not want a fast pace
Rupp has shifted from micro- to nano-d*sing. Less likely to get popped, but less benefit. He'll be a well-beaten 6th at best, and a DNS at worst.
I think Rupp will move from about 3 laps out. That seems to be what he and Salazar have been trying to do this year, is be strong with a long drive for home.
Juice Springsteen wrote:
Galen will probably just miss a medal. 5th-7th. He looks just as strong if not stronger than ever, but his closing speed doesn't seem to be there. Maybe if he makes a move inside a mile to go, 1000m at the least, he gives him self the best chance.
Mo can win if the pace is modest. If a collection of runners really try to make the pace fast and honest, Mo could lose.
Such a race would be good for Rupp, if he's fit. People appear to forget that only KB and Lucas Rotich have run faster than Rupp in this decade.
Where'sTony? wrote:
tony the tiger sez mo will finally face a teamwork, but he is going with salazar 2 beijing 4 gold no matter what, to finally show the h8ers he can win any type of race
Myself, I regrettably think Mo will win yet again. The Kenyans will push the pace some, but not enough in the end. Having done a lot of work, they will fade a bit over last lap, Edris will kick for silver and Kamworor will hang on for bronze.
That's my prediction anyway ... I could see it going lots of ways though. Pretty much all of them involve Mo winning.
You never know though ... I doubt much of anyone was picking Jeilan to win in 2011.
Mo is lucky he doesn't have the likes of a Tergat or Shihine to go up against ... or the Tadesse of some years back for that matter.
Watch Kamworor be that runner you fear is going to make a championship race won in the mid-high 26 minute range.
rupp's had a poor year. maybe that 4:00+ was practice for the last mile of the 10k. Salazar should have him solid and the competition seems weak at the 10k this time. He'll have a shot at a medal if conditions aren't terrible for him (a previous world's in maybe Daegu saw him run in the 27:20s and then 26:46 a month later, which was close to what Magness's heat/weight calculator figured Rupp's Daegu performance was--in other words, tough for him to compete with smaller, lighter athletes in the heat), but I don't see him having the burst necessary to keep it close with Farah or even Kamworor--who needs a fast pace the whole way to have a shot with Farah's far superior closing speed.
LetsRun.com wrote:
Mo Farah hasn't lost a global title on the track in 4 years. Will that change on Saturday?
Our race preview is now up:
http://www.letsrun.com/?p=85650Give us your thoughts.
KEnya will destroy Mo Farah. It'll be great team work.
Kipsang for the win.
jjjjjjj wrote:
Salazar should have him solid and the competition seems weak at the 10k this time.
This time? How about every time. The 10k has been weak since ~2009.
RunWild wrote:
Where'sTony? wrote:Mo is lucky he doesn't have the likes of a Tergat or Shihine to go up against ... or the Tadesse of some years back for that matter.
Watch Kamworor be that runner you fear is going to make a championship race won in the mid-high 26 minute range.
Possibly an all time great in the making.
yyy wrote:The 10000m is weaker than in the past due to testing
is this a joke ???
what on earth do you call 27'11 in nairobi ???
ventolin^3 wrote:
yyy wrote:The 10000m is weaker than in the past due to testingis this a joke ???
what on earth do you call 27'11 in nairobi ???
Overrated.
Peter Andersson wrote:For one, are the ugandians sending a full team
who cares ???
where are there 12'50 / 26'40 guys ???
they started building a east african powerhouse of their own over the last cuppla years, ya know?
are you serious ???
who have they got who has broken 13'00 or 27'00 since kipsiro ???
Those two gold medals in the marathon during last two champs should have worked wonders for new talent coming up ready to surprise us by now, not necessarily gold, but getting in the mix at 10000 too
ugandans are smart enough to realise that a guy who has never cracked 2"07 has got incredibly lucky twice
not this time i'm afraid...
where are the 26:30's????
No way Mo loses. It's going to be very warm, humid weather, and that will likely mean no fast pace. I'm guessing a 27:16 or so will win it.
Would love to see Rupp have a strong race and medal. Maybe being rested and under-raced this year will benefit him. He seems confident in his strength. His best chance is a long drive to the finish, and not letting the pace drag in that 5th mile. Rupp also needs to be tenacious in not getting dropped on that final 800 if he wants a chance at a medal.
Many are arguing the weather is too warm and humid. In 2008, in the same city and with similar weather conditions ( temps => 80ºF) Sammy Wanjiru ran the fastest championship time ever( 2:06:xx). That shows the heat and humidity can be conquered if an athlete is well prepared and most importantly, aggressive and fearless. No athlete since Wanjiru has those characteristics than Kamworor. His 27'11" @ altitude does not show the whole picture. He did the most pacework, and at one point in the race 'complained', urging the other two to help. Had there been equal share of pacework, we would be talking of the first 26 minute at altitude or 27'05" at worst. Kamworor will not only win but will Dan the fastest championship ever @ 26'35" with second @ 26'54", third 26'57" and Farah coming 4th @ 27'01". For Mo Farah it will be a repeat of 2015 Monaco 1500m Diamond league race, or better still, 2014 London marathon experience! The Sunday Times ( and the BBC?) Will on Sunday carry the title, "King Mo Farah deposed as Kamworor ascends to the throne!"
Muphaza wrote:
No athlete since Wanjiru has those characteristics than Kamworor. His 27'11" @ altitude does not show the whole picture. He did the most pacework, and at one point in the race 'complained', urging the other two to help.
I hope he won't be depending on help from others in Beijing.
A true great like Komen or Bekele would not need any help from the others.
Ben True will beat Rupp.
J.R. wrote:
Muphaza wrote:No athlete since Wanjiru has those characteristics than Kamworor. His 27'11" @ altitude does not show the whole picture. He did the most pacework, and at one point in the race 'complained', urging the other two to help.
I hope he won't be depending on help from others in Beijing.
A true great like Komen or Bekele would not need any help from the others.
It may take a true great to pull it off but as a spectator I'd love to see someone like Wamworor take it out hard enough to force Farah to make a decision, say by running the first few miles at world record pace. Honestly, I think this is the only way to beat Farah: make it clear from the gun that you are running suicidal and hitting a pace he is afraid to match. Once clear, you ease off a bit and hope no one wants to rabbit the chase pack.
We won't see much in the first 3K to 4K but thereafter, it will be an all-out war with all daggers drawn. So essential it will be a 6K race run in the fastest time humanly possible. But about that first 3K - 4K, no one knows what could happen.