What time will Asbel Kiprop run in the mile in London on Saturday?

^

Ha, ha!!

Post of the week.

he has a 3:30 pb

3:36 wrote:

Manzano?

MakwalaFan wrote:

....But, in a slower race, would he really be so sure of himself against Souleiman, just coming off a 1:42.97?

Well, if he hadn't run 1:42.97 on a "trampoline track", it wouldn't sound half as good.

It's amazing Radish didn't drop a bomb at Monaco some time during his career yet and break 1:40.

And Centro was how far back from Asbel? Really? A guy in Centro's recent form was nearly 4 seconds back from a 1:30-ish leader?

Bosse just ran 1:44.3 on a trampoline track and Aman 1:44+

Ndiku ran only 7:35, yet smoked Koech .. when they were really running, what, 7:4+ pace? And yet could only beat Garret Heath by less than 3 seconds?

The women only 1 person break 50 on this astonishingly fast track.

Tyson Gay, who's been running well, barely broke 10, and he and Gatlin were the only 2 people in the race to do so.

Super fast track indeed.

Since his loss to Aman in Zurich 2012, Rudisha's fastest time occurred at ______ (guess)

1:45.30, actually. But he's run slower than that on other tracks, and his non-Monaco PR is only 1:43.88. Aman has done far worse this year too. Witness the "bad day" at Monaco. Normally it would be a 1:46.

Since 2013 7 men have gone sub 1:43 a total of 9 times, all but one of which occurred at _______

tactical races can happen anywhere.

Sprinters have higher cadence and less bounce. Monaco works for people with long bouncy strides... Farah... Kiprop... Dibaba... and middle distance in general.

I retract my BOLD prediction of 3:42 from Kiprop. 3:47 at best.

El Keniano wrote:

GoldenMiles wrote:

I'm curious what the Africans think about the mile race in general. I'm sure most of them are far more used to the more commonly run 1,500.

Does anyone know what the great Africans think about the mile race and its history? Alternatively, has anyone ever read any articles about outside perspectives on the all-too-infrequently-run mile distance (and the even less-run two-miler)?

Only Brits and Americans care about the mile. To the rest of the world, it's like pounds, ounces fahrenheit, and yards: we don't get it and never will.

Yeah, I figured/worried that that was the case. I wish more fast Africans had gone after the mile and 2-mile over the years. I suspect we would've seen a 3:42 at least by now.

You only have to look at all the other WRs run over the years on that trampoline track to see Bad's point.

Before Dibaba there was.....um....

suspicious wrote:

You only have to look at all the other WRs run over the years on that trampoline track to see Bad's point.

Before Dibaba there was.....um....

lol No one will ever confuse Bad Wigins with a Mensa candidate. His limited knowledge of the sport in general is amusing to no end.

Bad Wigins wrote:

Since his loss to Aman in Zurich 2012, Rudisha's fastest time occurred at ______ (guess)

You mean since he was injured in early 2013 and hasn't yet retained anything like his top form?

So, you think if the Paris 2012 5000 had been held at Monaco, those guys would've broken Bekele's WR?

When did I say that fast times cant be run in London? I said that (very) fast times are not often run in the UK DL meets. For some reason they are often held mid afternoon (instead of the evening when most people run at their best), and conditions are not usually ideal.

I would love to see Kiprop run really fast, and never said he wouldn't - I'm just not getting my hopes too high (and I was actually there when El Guerrouj ran 3.45 at Crystal Palace mid afternoon, so am aware that outstanding performances are not impossible)

Bad Wigins: it looks to me like Monaco didn't start producing conspicuously fast 1500m times - that is to say, potentially out of line with other fast venues like Rieti and Berlin - until 2012. Do you know when the Monaco track was last re-surfaced? [I did a quick search but didn't find that info.]

I'm tired of playing the realist and always betting on 3:49ish. I want to bet on fast this time! BELIEVE!

3:45.2

george oscar bluth wrote:

I'm tired of playing the realist and always betting on 3:49ish. I want to bet on fast this time! BELIEVE!

3:45.2

3:46.21. He edges Cram's 3:46.32 and moves to #4 on the all time list behind El G, Ngeny and Morcelli.

dkny64 wrote:

Bad Wigins: it looks to me like Monaco didn't start producing conspicuously fast 1500m times - that is to say, potentially out of line with other fast venues like Rieti and Berlin - until 2012. Do you know when the Monaco track was last re-surfaced? [I did a quick search but didn't find that info.]

The track was resurfaced just prior to the 2010 meet there: -

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This is an interesting exert: -

"The work will focus on the resurfacing of the areas concerned: the first few centimetres of the upper layer of the track will be scraped off, then replaced by rubber resin, cast in one jointless block. This is made possible due to the physico-chemical compatibility between the new and old resin. The track will be faster and therefore conducive to new records, including at the next Herculis athletics meeting - Diamond League on Thursday 22nd July 2010."

The Monaco meet was ranked No.2 in 2009 (probably behind Zurich), but was already an established meet, with Baala running 3:30.96 in 2009.

But the fast times en masse didn't start until.... 2010!

That year the 5 fastest men all set those times in Monaco. I did a bit of research and I've put their time in Monaco followed by their non Monaco season's best time:

1. Kiprop ~ 3:29.27 (3:30.61) difference - 1.34

2. Laalou ~ 3:29.53 (3:32.75) " - 3.22

3. Choge ~ 3:30.22 (3:31.81) ' - 1.59

4. Wheating ~ 3:30.90 (3:37.52! - although he ran a Mile in 3:51.74 which = 3:34.57, so I'll take that) - 3.67

5. Gregson ~ 3:31.06 (3:35.42) difference - 4.36.

That's an average difference of 2.84 secs faster at Monaco for those athletes. The fastest non Monaco performance in 2010 was Kiplagat's 3:30.61 in Berlin.

2011 was a bit of a down year, but the meet still produced 4 times in the top 10 for the year.

2. (second fastest that year) Kiplagat ~ 3:30.47 (3:31.39) difference - 0.92

6. Chepseba ~ 3:31.74 (3:30.94) difference + 0.80 * The only athlete in the past 6 seasons (5 if not counting this season) listed here that has run a faster time on another track other than Monaco .

7. Kaki ~ 3:31.76 (didn't run any other listed 1500 that year)

8. Willis ~ 3:31.79 (3:33.22) difference - 1.43

15. Cheboi ~ 3:32.45 (3:33.82) " - 1.37

That's an average of 0.73 secs faster at Monaco for the 4 with other listed times for 1500 that year. The fastest non Monaco performance in 2011 was Kiprop's 3:30.46 in Rieti.

2012 had 6 athletes in the top 10 coming from Monaco's race: -

1. Kiprop ~ 3:28.88 (3:29.78) difference - 0.90

3. Chepseba ~ 3:29.77 ( 3:29.90) " - 0.13

5. Willis ~ 3:30.35 (3:34.70) " - 4.35

6. Makhloufi ~ 3:30.80 (3:32.58) " - 1.78

7. Birgen ~ 3:31.00 (3:31.17) " - 0.17

9. Kiplagat Seuri! ~ 3:31.61 (3:33.27) " - 1.66.

That's an average of 1.50 secs faster at Monaco for the 6 with other listed times for 1500 that year. The fastest non Monaco performance in 2012 was Kiplagat's 3:29.63 in Doha.

2013:-

1. Kiprop ~ 3:27.72 (3:31.13) difference - 3.41

2. Farah ~ 3:28.81 (no other listed 1500 for 2013)

3. Ndiku ~ 3:29.50 (3:33.41) difference - 3.91

5. Birgen ~ 3:30.77 (3:31.90) " - 1.13

6. Tanui-Ozbilen ~ 3:31.30 (3:35.09) " - 3.79

7. Cheboi ~ 3:31.53 (3:32.85) " - 1.32

That's an average of 2.71 secs faster at Monaco for the 5 with other listed times for 1500 that year. The fastest non Monaco performance in 2013 was Kiplagat's 3:30.13 in Rieti.

2014:-

1. Kiplagat ~ 3:27.64 (3:29.70) difference - 2.06

2. Kiprop ~ 3:28.45 (3:29.18) " - 0.73

3. Kwemoi ~ 3:28.81 (3:31.48) " - 2.67

4. Souleiman ~ 3:29.58 (3:30.16) " - 0.58

5. Iguider ~ 3:29.83 (3:32.09) " - 2.26

=6. Wote ~ 3:29.91 (3:30.86) " - 0.95

=6. Willis ~ 3:29.91 (3:34.72) " - 4.81

10. Manzano ~ 3:30.98 (3:34.40) " - 3.42

11. Centrowitz ~ 3:31.09 (3:32.70) " - 1.61

That's an average of 2.12 secs faster at Monaco for the 9 with other listed times for 1500 that year. The fastest non Monaco performance in 2014 was Kiprop's 3:29.18 in Doha.

Monaco clearly has great credentials for fast time and is clearly the fastest/best track in the world for middle distances. This analysis doesn't prove it is in any way illegal, and is certainly not short, but it does raise the question as to why top athletes run on average of 2.03 secs faster (based on the data of the 29 athletes above over the past 5 seasons) on the Monaco track than on any other, over the course of the season?

I would suggest looking at the above data that the number of 'fast times' increased by 2012 and thereafter, as athletes realised that it was an incredibly fast track.

It will be interesting to update this data to include this season's results at the end of it.

Thanks for the link + the number crunching. Would be fun to see what a mile on the Monaco track would produce - quite possibly the first sub-3:45 since 2001. Too bad Webb didn't get a chance to run a 1500m on that surface in 2007 - seems plausible to claim that he was in "Monaco 3:28.5 shape" that year.

dkny64 wrote:

Thanks for the link + the number crunching. Would be fun to see what a mile on the Monaco track would produce - quite possibly the first sub-3:45 since 2001. Too bad Webb didn't get a chance to run a 1500m on that surface in 2007 - seems plausible to claim that he was in "Monaco 3:28.5 shape" that year.

LOL. Yes indeed.

It's interesting that the fastest 1500m since 2010 not run at Monaco is 3:29.18 by Kiprop last year in Doha, which itself throws up ludicrously fast times in the mid and distance events for so early in the season.

In fact even more surprisingly is that there have only been 5 performances under 3:30 in total over the past 6 seasons (2010 - 2015). Something which I think Bad Wigins alluded to before me. That tells me that the 3:30 barrier is still a very difficult one.

I have a theory that since the end of the EPO/EL G era, it was obvious during the rest of the '00's that 3:30 was a difficult time to achieve again, which only reinforced the idea that the period from 94 - 04 was somewhat enhanced. Perhaps the IAAF recognised this and the prospect that no one was ever going to approach the WR of 3:26 for decades. Therefore, they have allowed on their home track of Monaco a superior track surface with extra energy return (or something similar) to enable the elites that are capable of 3:29 run 3:27!

I don't know, even I think that sounds cynical and unlikely, but it's only a theory.

Wow! Great research.

The fact the track was re-layed in 2010, which coincided with the fast times, would imply that the track is significantly faster than others. Though the pace and conditions also play a part.

I think the time Asbel Kiprop will run in the mile in London on Saturday will be 16.44 (British Summer time)

El Keniano wrote:

GoldenMiles wrote:

I'm curious what the Africans think about the mile race in general. I'm sure most of them are far more used to the more commonly run 1,500.

Does anyone know what the great Africans think about the mile race and its history? Alternatively, has anyone ever read any articles about outside perspectives on the all-too-infrequently-run mile distance (and the even less-run two-miler)?

Only Brits and Americans care about the mile. To the rest of the world, it's like pounds, ounces fahrenheit, and yards: we don't get it and never will.

So who holds the world record!

Kenyans highly rate the mile as well

Bad Wigins wrote:

Deanouk wrote:

the Olympic stadium's track is very fast, as shown by Rudisha.

Rudisha showed that Rudisha was very fast, not the track. He ran similar times elsewhere in smaller meets.

Monaco is clearly spring-loaded or something and needs to be banned before other tracks start copying it and making a mockery of "human" performance. Kiprop has not run faster than 3:29 anywhere but there. London is no trampoline so he's not going to do anything amazing.

1.) So Deanouk is stupid for suggesting that London has a 'fast' track, but you're definitely right for suggesting that Monaco has a 'fast' track? Idiot.

2.) What is your evidence that Monaco is "clearly spring-loaded or something" (very scientific, by the way)? Just that fast 1500m times have been run there 3 years in a row? Wow, I guess that coincidence alone rules out ALL other possible factors (monetary bonuses, good pacing, weather, chronological placement within the season, competition, psychology, other factors, and combinations thereof) in your head. Idiot.

3.) Only on this board will you find someone calling for corrective action because a world-record was run. Bad Wigins is an idiot.