What time will Asbel Kiprop run in the mile in London on Saturday?

A number of these guys are in fantastic shape, so we should see Kiprop run 3:43-45, right? That's after all, the 1.08x conversion and we know he's in 3:26.69 shape. This would be a great time to get a commensurate mile in the books since he's in that shape.

Unfortunately, it's unlikely that he will go for one. He tends to go for one fast time all year and that's the 1500m at Monaco. He's never run even 3:47 (or 3:48?) before. I'll bet Centro wants to break 3:50 but he won't be going with the pacers.

Weak field...I say he coasts to a 3:52 victory.

Kiprop is in 3:44 - 3:45 shape.

I'm more disappointed in Tuka running today at a smaller meet because they wouldn't squeeze him into the 800 in London. The rumor is Rudisha vetoed it - said he wouldn't race if Tuka was dropped in at the last minute. Tuka is good but he's no Rudisha...yet. Very strange because we all know how gutsy Rudisha is. Maybe things will change, but then Tuka wouldn't be going in as fresh as some of the others. Track is bizarre. I hope this story isn't true, but ...

And where did you hear this nonsense story

How is the field weak? In addition to Kiprop, you have Souleiman, Iguider, and Centro who are all medal contenders, and a number of other solid names. But yes, I doubt Kiprop will want to chase the clock again, and everyone else will be too afraid of him to run a hard pace, so the time should be north of 3:50.

osm wrote:

How is the field weak? In addition to Kiprop, you have Souleiman, Iguider, and Centro who are all medal contenders, and a number of other solid names. But yes, I doubt Kiprop will want to chase the clock again, and everyone else will be too afraid of him to run a hard pace, so the time should be north of 3:50.

You forgot Manzano too - he and Centro are 3:47-equivalent milers. Either could set the American record with the right circumstances.

Manzano?

I will have to say that I don't see Kiprop blazing an absurd time even though he is definitely in shape for it. This is due to the fact that everyday, he probably remembers the 2012 Olympics where he was out of medal contention because of his many previous races.

So with this in consideration I will go out on a limb and say Souleiman goes with the pacers, which I will assume will go out on 3:46-3:48 pace. Kiprop will follow and probably go hard from 600-500 out and finish around 3:48.

If no one goes with the pacers, Kiprop will probably sit back with the pack and just kick it in from 600-500 out which will most likely lead to a 3:50-3:52 finish.

All of my prediction uses the assumption that there will be good weather.

Kiprop's 2012 Olympics sucked because at the Kenyan camp he and the other 1500m runners didn't do reps longer than 400m. Because of this training, Kiprop suffered a hamstring injury.

3:42

a BOLD prediction

you wlll be stunned, your jaws will go clunk onto the floor and ants will crawl into your mouth but you won't notice

I'm curious what the Africans think about the mile race in general. I'm sure most of them are far more used to the more commonly run 1,500.

Does anyone know what the great Africans think about the mile race and its history? Alternatively, has anyone ever read any articles about outside perspectives on the all-too-infrequently-run mile distance (and the even less-run two-miler)?

Wouldn't be surprised to see it outside 3.50. Performances nearly always disappointing in the British DL meets, as conditions are really good. You don't see many fast times set on breezy afternoons...

Assuming Kiprop gets the win, it might be safe to bet on sub-3:50 at least.

I remember an article from Track and Field News not long ago about sub-3:50 miles, and how it would be very rare not to see one this year.

I couldn't find it again, but went to the IAAF world lists archives and since the first sub-3:50 mile was ran in 1975, the only years with out a sub-3:50 have been 1976, 1977, 1978, and 2006.

In 2006 it was close ... leader that year was 3:50.32 (Alex Kipchirchir Rono ... a guy with a 3:30.46 1500m PB, so clearly capable of better).

I did find a post at Jesse Squire's blog about all sub-3:50s and the metric equivalent (sub-3:33.00 apparently). Plenty of guys in Saturday's field have ran under 3:33 (some way under ...), but it seems the mile races are often more tactical.

Most go out somewhat quick, slow 3rd lap, then a big kick ... 3:48/49 for the win.

As to Kiprop ... I'm not sure he wouldn't want to make it a fast race. He just ran 3:26, so clearly if he goes all out or even close to that, no one will touch him in the mile either.

But, in a slower race, would he really be so sure of himself against Souleiman, just coming off a 1:42.97?

UW wrote:

Wouldn't be surprised to see it outside 3.50. Performances nearly always disappointing in the British DL meets, as conditions are really good. You don't see many fast times set on breezy afternoons...

Really! There were a couple of world records there and a clutch of fast times at the 2012 Olympics. Weather forecast is good for this weekend.

The old Crystal Palace track was a pretty slow one, but the Olympic stadium's track is very fast, as shown by Rudisha. Not sure if it's as fast as the Monaco track, but certainly it's one of the fastest out there.

It won't be the weather or the track that will mitigate a slow mile. It will really depend on whether good pacing is laid on and whether any of the big guns decide to follow it.

Deanouk wrote:

the Olympic stadium's track is very fast, as shown by Rudisha.

Rudisha showed that Rudisha was very fast, not the track. He ran similar times elsewhere in smaller meets.

Monaco is clearly spring-loaded or something and needs to be banned before other tracks start copying it and making a mockery of "human" performance. Kiprop has not run faster than 3:29 anywhere but there. London is no trampoline so he's not going to do anything amazing.

I agree with you that the Monaco track is faster, probably illegally so. This would be because it is the HQ of the IAAF.

But nonetheless, the London track is fast compared to others and there have been a lot of fast times run on it. I was just suggesting to another poster who implied that London never had fast times, that he/ she was wrong.

This is exactly my prediction - minus the part about them not noticing the ants; they'll notice....

Bad Wigins wrote:

3:42

a BOLD prediction

you wlll be stunned, your jaws will go clunk onto the floor and ants will crawl into your mouth but you won't notice

GoldenMiles wrote:

I'm curious what the Africans think about the mile race in general. I'm sure most of them are far more used to the more commonly run 1,500.

Does anyone know what the great Africans think about the mile race and its history? Alternatively, has anyone ever read any articles about outside perspectives on the all-too-infrequently-run mile distance (and the even less-run two-miler)?

Only Brits and Americans care about the mile. To the rest of the world, it's like pounds, ounces fahrenheit, and yards: we don't get it and never will.

Bad Wigins wrote:

Deanouk wrote:

the Olympic stadium's track is very fast, as shown by Rudisha.

Rudisha showed that Rudisha was very fast, not the track. He ran similar times elsewhere in smaller meets.

Monaco is clearly spring-loaded or something and needs to be banned before other tracks start copying it and making a mockery of "human" performance. Kiprop has not run faster than 3:29 anywhere but there. London is no trampoline so he's not going to do anything amazing.

Only on Letsrun do people have to point that the athlete who ran a world record time ran very fast.

3.50 hasn't convinced the board in Dibaba's case. The Herculis track ran that world record. It's the only track record that track has ever run, Dibaba was just in the right place at the right time. That track was in awesome shape.

Two Olympic golds, three World Championship golds couldn't win them over either. Any athlete worth their salt knows that you've never truly made it until you've convinced Letsrun.