Josh Rohatinsky's Thoughts on Salazar: "Galens progression from 2006-2012 was highly suspicious to me."

Skuj wrote:

3 years from 3:57 to 3:52 is not "suddenly".

Yes it is, He was a 4:01 HS miler in 2004, in 2011 his PRs were 3:57/3:39. For 8 years he was stuck in the 4:01-3:57 range. Suddenly he drops to 3:34 in 2012.

KABOOM!

Maybe you didn't see my post above, you know, the one I linked from IAAF Progression?

In 2010 his PR was 3:57. Three years later his PR was 3:52. That is less than 2sec per year. (And all that time he was improving in 5000m/10000m). When you stand back and look at the forest, you see there is nothing "sudden". This board was not "OMFG where did THAT come from" when he did it. (Or shall I prove that?)

Doping expert wrote:

Solinksy anyone? wrote:

The sport is a mess. But the real damage was done by Dr. Gabriele Rosa, Jos Hermens and other purveyors of drug use. Able to avoid testing because of location.

It sure was

This story is 100x bigger than NOP

Is there *any* chance proof will emerge of your accusation about Rosa and Hermens? Those of us on the outside have zero ability to assess whether or not you are making wild accusations or are speaking from a place of first hand knowledge.

Another thing that pisses me off about Rohatinsky is....Rupp ran 26:48 BEFORE the Olympics, didn't he? Like, a YEAR before??

Correct me if I am wrong.

"He was a 4:01 miler in high school" ... potentially "aided" 4:01 miler in high school.

I'm reposting something I made before, a compilation of 5K and 10K PRs for the top distance runners in history:

I made a plot of PR progressions for the top 10K guys in history. I'm lazy so I did it in a sloppy way, but you can get the idea.

Here's what I did:

1. Go to IAAF.org and record 5K and 10K bests for each person from each calendar year.

2. Subtract the calendar year of the race from the calendar year of the DOB. So if the race was run December 31 2014 and the guy has a January 1 2000 birthday I'm still calling it 14 years old even though the guy is closer to 15. Deal with it, I'm too damn lazy to figure out a better system.

3. Convert 10K times to 5K times by dividing by 2 and then by a further 1.044. That way a 26:20 10K is worth a 12:37 5K. If you don't like it, tough.

4. Combine the 10K and 5K times as if they were both 5K times and only plot the PRs, not the yearly bests (if they get slower I'm not plotting that).

5. The legend has two line thicknesses and a bunch of different confusing shades of colors, I hope you're not colorblind. My ambition is finite.

6. Let me know if I made mistakes.

Voila:

http://i.imgur.com/S57Jag5.png

Read more:

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5835748#ixzz3cyu9Q9ul

Rupp was never primarily, or even secondarily, a miler. His 15/mile progression isn't that important a subject at this point.

Reposting more of what I said in that previous thread:

I forgot to say that the list of athletes was taken from Wikipedias entry on the fastest 10,000 meter runners in the world, so if youre wondering why I stopped at 25 athletes, thats your answer.

What I learned:

-Rupp and Farah have more datapoints than the other athletes and made progress more slowly than most of them.

-One thing that surprises me is how many curves seem fairly linear (for instance, look at Hissous progression or Rupps progression to the age of 25 (ignoring his last data point))

I was expecting curves that looked more like [asymptotic] exponentials. Haile G is really the one that makes the strongest case for an exponential. Farahs has a bit of curvature but it doesn't look like it has flattened out. There must be something psychological about pushing past the point of diminishing returns. From that point of view, Haile G is the biggest badass on the list, I knew I liked that guy.

Read more:

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5835748#ixzz3cyurYM19

Skuj wrote:

Maybe you didn't see my post above, you know, the one I linked from IAAF Progression?

In 2010 his PR was 3:57. Three years later his PR was 3:52. That is less than 2sec per year. (And all that time he was improving in 5000m/10000m). When you stand back and look at the forest, you see there is nothing "sudden". This board was not "OMFG where did THAT come from" when he did it. (Or shall I prove that?)

Perhaps you aren't understand common sense. Rupp didn't improve 2s per year, he improved 5s in ONE year.

What to you say about Rupp's kick against Abdi?

Bring Back the 880 wrote:

Rupp was never primarily, or even secondarily, a miler. His 15/mile progression isn't that important a subject at this point.

I agree, but his 1500/Mile progression show nothing "sudden", like all of his other progressions. There were some big leaps taken in 10000m due to limited number of time trial races done. has anyone at letsrun ever been shocked by a Rupp performance? Every big PR was something that so very many of us predicted when it happened, right?

So why the F$%K is Rohatinsky so suspicious?

afdsjasdgdsf wrote:

http://i.imgur.com/S57Jag5.png

Read more:

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5835748#ixzz3cyu9Q9ul

I like how you give everyone credit for low 12:40s even though they never ran anywhere near that. Very kind of you, sir.

Sudden Impact wrote:

Rupp didn't improve 2s per year, he improved 5s in ONE year.

NO!!!

He improved 5sec over 3 years.

Are we really having this conversation?

Your whole premise is a mistake which makes whatever point you are trying to make invalid. What point are you even trying to make or show?

You can't convert everyone's 10k times to 5k times using the same number (1.044) unless they all have the same speed/endurance profile (they don't). Farah and Tadesse are complete opposites yet you are using the same conversion number for both of them.

Your other big mistake is assuming that their yearly bests were the same as their yearly capabilities. This is hugely wrong. People rarely even time trial 10k. It's usually just a kicking race. Fast times in the 5k are slightly more frequent but you aren't showing this. You have to separate ability from performance. For instance, Bekele has been able to run near the world record in the 10k every year, but he only ever tried 3 times. Using a high 26:xx or low 27:xx isn't accurate.

A for effort. F for usefulness.

Skuj wrote:

So why the F$%K is Rohatinsky so suspicious?

Because he was close to what was happening.

This thread could have been good if it hadn't attracted a bunch of idiots.

on the contrary, Rohatinsky SAYS that he did not witness what went on behind the "wall of separation" dividing Rupp and the Wizard from the rest of the team.

Here's a summary of JR's comments:

1. He was never asked to take anything illegal.

2. He sensed a wall between AS and GR in relation to everyone else in the group (of course, we should keep in mind that AS has always treated GR like a son).

3. He never saw anything illegal going on.

4. He is suspicious of GR's progress, apparently because he trained with him and was able to beat him when younger (he is almost four years older than Rupp).

All of this now leads to an extensive discussion of whether GR could have improved as much as he did legally. Oi veh.

And about GR's vaunted kick, apart from the Olympics, when has that kick be in evidence against world-class Africans?

What's of greatest interest to me is not the "evidence" that has been produced--yes, AS seems to have lived in the gray area of prescription drugs (I say "seems" because I don't know), and maybe he drifted into the black area--but that no one of all these guys who apparently spoke to Epstein and BBC has said anything about top end PEDs, which is what many on this board have for years accused AS of providing. Moreover, and I think I mentioned this on another thread, everything charged seems to pertain to Rupp (forget Decker, because whether AS was her coach (whatever that term means), he did not have total control over her the way he has with NOP). That's a curious thing.

been in evidence -- sorry

Logically wrote:

Skuj wrote:

So why the F$%K is Rohatinsky so suspicious?

Because he was close to what was happening.

Actually, he was not there when Galen made progress onto the world stage. I have a huge problem with much that is written here:

"5. GALENS PROGRESS. Galen was improving during my time with the group and began making World Championship teams and so forth. He obviously didnt peak until a few years after I left, when he took silver in London in the 10k. I have to admit, watching that race live was surreal to me. Seeing someone I had trained with consistently for two years not too long before - and beaten several times in races in the years prior to that in college - push through that last lap and accelerate on the homestretch to beat the likes of the Bekele brothers was incredible. And when I say incredible I mean it in the literal sense of the word. How does that amount of progress happen in that short of a time frame? Supporters always point to hard work, but let me break it to you we all worked our butts off. It reminds me of the Lance Armstrong commercial, What Am I On? (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIl5RxhLZ5U). As everyone knew long before he got busted, that pathetic liar was on a lot more than his bike. Alberto himself said back around the year 2000 that he believes its near impossible to medal in a distance event clean. Did the sport get any cleaner from 2000-2012 to make that possible? No. Galens progression from 2006-2012 was highly suspicious to me, particularly since I spent two of those six years with him. Again, he worked his butt off and I can attest to that but even with that, the progression just doesnt add up to me."

He trained consistently with Galen for 2 years "not too long before" 2012? (It was 2006/7 wasn't it?) Beating him in college is significant? How many years prior was that? What did Bekele bros do in 2011/2012 that would leave us shocked if Galen beat them? Why are we immediately rushing to Lance Armstrong commercials for enlightenment?

The progress in 2006-2012 is NOT suspicious when you look at the numbers right across the board. NEWSFLASH: 2012 was a 5 years after Rohatinsky departed.