Whoops, I also forgot to add in Iona into the mix!!
Whoops, I also forgot to add in Iona into the mix!!
inevitable wrote:
The Syracuse coach does not give his athletes the tools to run well (twice) over the 10k cross distance in 2 weeks. They lack the aerobic base to run consistently well over 10k xc. They are trained for a good track 5k or 8k cross but not 10k and it will show at the big dance.
Hopefully their coach will realize that they need to work more in order to run well in upcoming years. All Im saying is those guys need high mileage and bigger 10k geared workouts.
What makes you say this? You know these guys train in flagstaff over the summer, right? Their aerobic base is likely just as good as any other team's.
Oregon has as good or better of a 1-2 punch than any other team. Two extremely low numbers helps out quite a bit in a large, talent-laden field like NC's. Their 3 thru 7 are packed very well together and proved up to the challenge of helping Oregon win their Regional Meet. I don't understand the reasoning behind predicting a "choke". These aren't the same guys that underperformed in the past. It's a different group of guys. By the logic of the originator of the thread, and that logic being that since they "choked" in the past then they will choke again, you could just as easily say that since they have won championships in the past (and fairly recently) that they should win. Either way, it's flawed and ignorant logic. One thing that is certain is that Oregon has a very, very good team capable of a trophy finish.
You guys just don't get it. The bigger the field, the more important 4 and 5 are compared to 1 and 2. If 1 and 2 run 10 seconds slower you add about 10 points, if 4 and 5 are ten seconds slower, you add about 50 points. Is third-grade math really that hard?Yes it helps to have a better 1 and 2 but not compared to having a better 4 and 5.
Overrated? wrote:
Oregon has as good or better of a 1-2 punch than any other team. Two extremely low numbers helps out quite a bit in a large, talent-laden field like NC's.
Fftfttffttffuhuh wrote:
WHICH ONE? :) wrote:... Yes, they are good, but wont finish top 3.
Ok, please share, who will finish top 3?
I assume Colorado...
But who are the 2 other schools?
Oklahoma State and Wisconsin
I disagree here when we're talking about Cuse and Oregon. Cuse's 1-2 will not be only 10 seconds back of Oregon's 1-2. (And it's not 2.5 points per second, it's more like 1.5-2 points per second.)
You say "the bigger the field the more important 4 and 5 are compared to 1 and 2", but I'm not sure that's true. A big field up front displaces all 5 of Syracuse's runners. It only displaces 3 of Oregon's runners. So the bottom line is you're essentially scoring 3 versus 5.
Exactly. In a large field, having 2 extremely low sticks is like scoring 3 runners. Yes, to win a National title you are going to still need effective 4th and 5th guys but at this stage in the game the top 10 projected teams all have decent 4th and 5th guys. They don't all have Edward Chez and Eric Jenkins. Oregon could score super minimal points up front and essentially have the huge advantage of only having to score 3 to 3 and a half guys.
Don't forget BYU's Ed Eyestone. Many time NCAA champ, two time olympian.
If Syracuse goes out hard and tries to beat Colorado and idea and finishes fifth, is that a failure? I\'d say no. I think a lot of people agree that SU has the best chance to beat Colorado, so why would they be content to sit back and let them win. Crazy stuff happens all the time. People get sick. Whole teams get sick. Colorado may blow up and not run their best and if Syracuse is just sitting back trying to finish on the podium, they won\'t have a chance.
I hope they at least try to hang near the front through 6k and then see what happens. You never know. And if they do die and finish 5th, people will come on here and bash them... And they\'re idiots.
Martin Hehir is the m'fin man! That kid improved so much since high school, especially since junior year of high school. I like Syracuse because a lot of those kids are from New York. This is one of the best Syracuse teams in a very long time, yes?
It seems that Syracuse is the deepest team other than Colorado (though Wisconsin ran 2-7 within five seconds at Regionals). Deep teams may be important because the footing might be an issue.
Many days of cold temps freezing the ground, then cold rain early. It warms up some, but that might just make the top layer slip against the frozen clay underneath. Multiple people might go down or have problems and that can change a race pretty quickly. I have never been on the course, I am just guessing here but what do others think?
It's been amusing to read how people have changed the goalposts for Syracuse all year. They lost 3 of their top 5, got no love, got smushed in Boston to Oregon, became a one hit Wisconsin wonder, crushed their conference by "dying the last 2k", cruised regionals apparently over Iona but now it's if they aren't top 2-3 they are chokers even though they seem to have exceeded everybody's expectation, except their own, already. Got to love the letsrun crowd.
Fighting Duckies wrote:
Historically, Oregon does well at these big events. Look only as far back as last year when the women won the championship, or a couple years ago when the men won it with Rupp. I don't look for Oregon to choke, I look for them to fight and claw for both men's and women's titles again.
This is a reasonable take.
The coaching at Oregon is excellent these days.
Cuse has a chance wrote:
If Syracuse goes out hard and tries to beat Colorado and idea and finishes fifth, is that a failure? I'd say no. I think a lot of people agree that SU has the best chance to beat Colorado, so why would they be content to sit back and let them win. Crazy stuff happens all the time. People get sick. Whole teams get sick. Colorado may blow up and not run their best and if Syracuse is just sitting back trying to finish on the podium, they won't have a chance.
I hope they at least try to hang near the front through 6k and then see what happens. You never know. And if they do die and finish 5th, people will come on here and bash them... And they're idiots.
Why in the world to people think this is a good idea? The pay off isn't any bigger than waiting and storming home after 5 miles, but the risk is so much bigger. Look at colardo's past championship wins, and the scores at each split.
Reply number 19 or 20: tell me 9 seconds doesn't matter at nationals. Go look at places 30 through 50 and see what 9 seconds will do to you.
Above poster: this thread in general is confusing choking and being overrated. Some posters are saying syracuse is overrated, I am not. I am saying they will choke.
Posters think 5th place is still good? When you come in ranked 2nd, 5th is a bonk. Wherever you start the season is irrelevent: if they don't live up to their level ina big way, it is a choke. Most would agree 2nd or 3rd is their level right now. 4th is a poor day, 5th is a bonk, 6th plus is choking. (Its all words anyway, please don't argue about the vocabulary)
A Duck wrote:
Fighting Duckies wrote:Historically, Oregon does well at these big events. Look only as far back as last year when the women won the championship, or a couple years ago when the men won it with Rupp. I don't look for Oregon to choke, I look for them to fight and claw for both men's and women's titles again.
This is a reasonable take.
The coaching at Oregon is excellent these days.
No it's not. It has been a bit since the Duck men had a good NCAA XC performance.
inevitable wrote:
Both of these teams are way overrated. I don\'t even think Syracuse will podium.
Syracuse won NE regionals sitting out 2 of the top 5 guys on the squad. I\'m picking them to go 2nd behind Colorado. Colorado isn\'t going to win as easily as some people may think. I see a lot of similarities between cuse and CU. Both teams have extremely solid packs. My prediction: Team title comes within the last 1km of the race!
Honey wrote:
Why in the world to people think this is a good idea? The pay off isn't any bigger than waiting and storming home after 5 miles, but the risk is so much bigger. Look at colorado's past championship wins, and the scores at each split.
While going out fast has been recognized as sometimes being problematic (especially at NCAAs with the 10k distance and with soggy terrain), going out too slowly can result in being caught in traffic and with difficulty in linking up with teammates. This has hurt top teams in the past.
Oregon will get 2nd in the Men's and 2nd in the Women's. Too bad Sarah Baxter is injured or red shirting because i think the Oregon Women would win NCAA's if she was running. I don't see after Cheserek and Jenkins go 1-2 in this race that Oregon choked or will choke 2nd place at NCAA's isn't choking.
26mi235 wrote:
wareaglet wrote:...correction...I would throw in Ray Tracey (PC) and Rob Gary (Furman).
anyone else? I know that's not the magic formula but it does offer credence to what Syracuse has accomplished by way of their coaching.
Was Mick Byrne before your time?
That's your list of DI coaches who were good athletes? Come on. Obviously you got Byrne. There's Ed Eyestone at BYU. Dave Smith was Big 10 champ in the 10k. The new guy at Michigan used to be a pretty good miler I heard. The list goes on.
That being said, I hope Syracuse makes the podium. It's good to see a team do well that's not usually in the mix, or at least hasn't been for awhile. And it's cool to see a long term strategy like that pay off. He's been taking baby steps for a few years bringing that team along really well.
Yup. 5th at the Olympics strikes me as pretty good too.