predicting high school runners performances

Flagpole Willy wrote:

a h.s. coach,

I did not post that one in this thread that says how smart I am.

Actually Mr. Humble, you really did make that post, in another thread.

One of my teammates just ran 25:19 for 5 miles. Another just ran 14:50 in a road 5k. The former ran 6 x 1600 the other week and ran 5:14, 5:09, 5:07, 5:02, 5:07, 5:01. He gave himself 1 minute rest. This is an easier workout than 5:05, 3 mile tempo, 5:11, 3 mile tempo, 5:10. That is a ton of volume... 9 miles of quality is a lot. A 6 mile tempo is plenty. I think these guys are probably very tired come race day. But I bet as they mature and get used to the workload, they will run fast in a year or 2.

not stan wrote:

Flagpole Willy wrote:

a h.s. coach,

I did not post that one in this thread that says how smart I am.

Actually Mr. Humble, you really did make that post, in another thread.

Well, now we're splitting hairs.

I've long said that the arrogant posts of mine (which I don't make anymore) were all a joke. I mean, come on, how could they NOT be?

If you REALLY read my stuff, you'll know that I applaud good posts here all the time (often times admitting that I couldn't have done as well), ask people to see a doctor (as I did that Ben guy who asked ME if I knew how to treat depression, and since I'm not a doctor and I DON'T know how, I told him to go see a doctor), and I ask for running advice all the time here. I mean, honestly, I've made a couple of outrageously arrogant posts EVER, clearly have stated they were just jokes, and some (you?) think I'm arrogant?

Holy crap!

pretty sure on this one wrote:

Flagpole Willy wrote:

This is a much better idea. Listen to TZilla.

Yes, Listen to Flagpole. He is a running EXPERT.

So I give props to another guy and that makes ME the arrogant expert?! Wow some of you people are messed up.

Flagpole Willy wrote:

I've long said that the arrogant posts of mine (which I don't make anymore) were all a joke. I mean, come on, how could they NOT be?

If you REALLY read my stuff, you'll know that I applaud good posts here all the time (often times admitting that I couldn't have done as well), ask people to see a doctor (as I did that Ben guy who asked ME if I knew how to treat depression, and since I'm not a doctor and I DON'T know how, I told him to go see a doctor), and I ask for running advice all the time here. I mean, honestly, I've made a couple of outrageously arrogant posts EVER, clearly have stated they were just jokes, and some (you?) think I'm arrogant?

Holy crap!

What a total load of bullshit!!!!!!

get real! wrote:

What a total load of bullshit!!!!!!

Oh yeah?

The proof is in the pudding.

1) I posted recently in this thread after the ORIGINATOR ASKED ME to -

Pretty humble answers if you ask me.

2) Here, in another recent thread someone posts something and I say his idea is BETTER - "Flagpole Willy wrote: This is a much better idea. Listen to TZilla."

3) In the "how much $$ never to work again thread, Adam Smith said this about ME - "For more financial wisdom, ask FW (surprisingly seems to have good advice)" I didn't say that, HE did. In fact, Adam Smith was way ore harsh with the question asker than I was. I even told the guy I didn't see anything too out of whack with his finances (he DID ask for opinions).

4) In this thread -

I told northrunning that he had the best post in said thread and that it was better than anything I could write so I wouldn't even try. Pretty humble once again.

5) In another thread today, I told Future Doctor this after he and I agreed on something - "But Future Doctor, you said it first and you said it best, so you get the CRED."

So, perhaps someone could make the argument that I post too often - some days I post more than others - today is a slow day computer processwise as we're changing domains and I have been doing lots of waiting - but I seriously don't see how anyone could read my posts as a whole and think that I'm arrogant or full of myself or anything of the sort.

Yes, I said I was a baseball expert. Well, that happens to be true. There are lots of things I could say that are true, but it doesn't make me arrogant. I am also a very good piano player and a mediocre guitar player. I am now a very slow runner at age 38, so for those of you in your prime, I'm sure you could ALL beat me now.

How is any of the above arrogant? I'd like to see some concrete example, and not just you telling me I am. How am I arrogant?

FW, for what it's worth, i'm on your side. so chill.

a h.s. coach wrote:

FW, for what it's worth, i'm on your side. so chill.

Thanks brother. I'm chilled though.

I agree with what some of the posters have said: theres no need for 9 freaking miles of quality work at this point in the season. You should be dropping 1000's, 800's, 600's and 400's at a pretty quick pace these days. For the amount of rest that they were given in that 2x8x400m workout, they should be running those a bit faster than 1:15. something we did, which was also a bit of fun, was basically 2 person relays, each person running a 400 and then handing off their partner. the target time was 1:07 to 1:10, and we did about 10-12 of them. this will build fitness. if you want to work on "race pace" have them do 1000's at 3:20, which is 5:20 mile pace. do 5-6 of those with 1:00, 1;30, or 2:00 rest. make sure you pay attention to their form and how they look in general during those, and adjust the rest accordingly. too much rest, however, might also tire them out, as their heart rate might slow too much, and require a while to get back up to the proper pace.

also, to whom it may concern:

if you had an 8:58 two miler at your school, they could drop 25x400 at 70, let alone 75, with a minutes rest. you either dont know your facts or are full of shit. there are plenty of 9:30 guys who could do that, as well.

a h.s. coach wrote:

If I am screwed up for wanting to predict 5K potential, how do others go about determing whether their athletes are running up to their true ability?

What you need to do is compare past race performances with past workouts.

Meaning, when Runner A ran his PR last year of 16:50, he'd just done a workout the week before of 4 x 1600 at 5:20 pace with 2 minutes rest between each.

SO, this year when Runner A can do the same workout at the same approximate effort level, he is probably in 16:50 shape. And if he can do the same workout but each set is 10 seconds faster, or done with less rest, or he can do one more rep, well, then you know he's in better shape than 16:50.

Only THEN, if he continues to race slower than expected, do you start to wonder what's going on.

skeets wrote:

I would just slow them down. In your remaining weeks just do strides for your tournover work and tempo 1000's based off of there more current 5k.

I coached a 8:58 2 miler who could not have done your 400m workout. Remember, they are racing a 5k not the 800m or mile.

With that kind of base behind them, they will come around with a little rest.

So, your 8:58 two miler could do 8x400m in :67 each with 0 seconds of rest (i.e. an 8:58 2 mile) but couldn't do 8x400m in :75 with 60 seconds rest between each? There's no way you're a real coach...

Thanks. Finally a good idea.

We are just cruising this week with no workouts. Race Wednesday (we won league), easy days Thursday and Friday and county meet Saturday. Off Sunday.

I was figuring on doing 20x200 at 30 with 30 secs. rest on Monday; easy Tuesday; a quick mile Weds., then 2x400; easy Thursday; easy Friday; state qualifier Saturday.

Any better ideas? Thoughts? Thanks.

Then again there are some who just know how to race.

Back in Hs we had a 9:01 2 miler who was the slowest SOB in runs & workouts but he could give you one heck of a race.

20x200 at 30 with 30 secs. rest??? They better be 1:50 or better 800m runners with that kind of workout. You are starting to get under the assumption that more is more. Sometimes less is more. They are doing far too much quality, and that is why they are tired come race day. You should be lowering the amount of quality volume, a workout I did this past sunday might help you, 3x(4x220m) up a very slight incline(so you can still run very fast). Gradually decreased the avg. time each set, and started off the repeat of the next set by running whatever the avg. time of the previous set was. Went like this 33.4 avg., first rep of next set, 33.4, 31.3 avg., first rep of last set, 31.3, and 29.7 avg. Just decrease the time with each set, and you should be taking a good amount of rest, mine was a jog back and 6 minutes in between sets. You are going after neuromuscular ability and stride efficiency not the ability to produce lactate as power for an 800, that workout is definitely far too anaerobic for a 5k. Sorry for the rant, that's all I have for now.

I misread the workout. I thought he said 8x400m in 60 with 75 sec. rest.

a h.s. coach wrote:

believe it, there are crappy states out here in the wilderness, especially in the small school divisions.

Here in Michigan there are 10 teams that win a state championship each year. Until a few years ago there were 18 individuals that won a state championship each year. Not that Michigan is crappy by any measure, just that there are a lot of opportunities to win a state championship out there.

I think you should make them train at 16:00 3 mile pace on all their workouts and shorten the rest. They all should work out as a team taking turns leading and pull your three along.