Galen Rupp's 5000m Ceiling

Nope wrote:

twins = sleepless nights = new priorities

13:05-13:10 is his new reality

Please.

Ruppy sleeps in an altitude tent every night. Do you think he is going to be doing night-duty with the twins? Do you think for one second those two won't have a team of nannies?

Farah, Lagat, Meb ... all those guys trained just fine with more kids than Rupp ... and probably did more fathering.

Not sure what his 5k limit is nor do I care.

But I am sure he can't deadlift more than 20 lbs.

Galen Rupp Fanatic wrote:

I guess that Cliff Clavin is right about Galen Rupp's 5000m ceiling. He is now 28 years old and he has had many cracks at the 5000m, and he has indeed brushed up against a ceiling right around 13 minutes, just as Cliff said he would. He has broken 13 minutes one time. He does a good job at 10,000m though.

What people constantly seem to underestimate here is the power of opportunity. There are plenty of guys who are racing the 5000 this very year who have run under 12:55 already, but yet haven't done it this year. Rupp has beaten most of them in his couple outdoor 5000's.

These guys didn't suddenly lose their ability to run under 12:55. The number 1 reason they are not is the lack of opportunity. They ran under 12:55 because they were in a race that made that possible. A race that went 12:48 or 12:50 or 12:52 etc. They also happened to be having an A race when that happened. If they had a B race they would have run 12:58 or 13:02. Anyone with an objective mind can clearly see what level Rupp is at, and given his 8:07 and 13:01 indoors, 26:46 and strong 5,000 races in the Diamond League this season Rupp is a level ahead of every American before him (Ritz, Teg, Solinsky, Kennedy) except Lagat.

Don't be surprised if he pops a big PB when people are not expecting it. May be this season or even next summer despite worlds.

I don't see any signs he's getting any faster, at least not over 5k. I suspect he's hit his 5k PR already.

A Tent wrote:

Nope wrote:

twins = sleepless nights = new priorities

13:05-13:10 is his new reality

Please.

Ruppy sleeps in an altitude tent every night. Do you think he is going to be doing night-duty with the twins? Do you think for one second those two won't have a team of nannies?

Please, fanboy. Rupp's new reality is 13:10 as stated. You can dream about Rupp running sub 13's regularly in nightly dreams. Just beware of rolling over any of your night deposits made during your dreams.

12:55

I think I'm more charitable than the rest on here, and will say around 12:50 is his max. Which is a damn good time. If he focused on it, I think he could get the AR in the 5K. But I'm not sure if he will. He already has a great 10,000M time (or two). He should go after those 3,000/5,000 records.

At least that's what I'd do.

I'd goo with 12.55

Oh c'mon people. Rupp's ceiling is 12:50 or even better. I'm not saying he will run that. But the OP's question was about Rupp's ceiling. Given optimal conditions Rupp can definitely run that. Moreover, even at 28 he is still improving.

Remember, we are just talking about maximizing 5000M times. That is totally different than 5000M racing where you basically have to finish in 53 seconds.

Rupp's speed is the bigger issue. At 28 I highly doubt he can getting any faster. Since 2012 has he run a lap faster than 54 seconds? I can't recall that he has.

Ryan Foreman wrote:

Moreover, even at 28 he is still improving.

Magic juice. That is the secret to "still improving" at an elderly age for a runner.

I agree. 12:50 to me seems like his absolute fastest possible mark

Galen Rupp will NEVER break 12:35 for 5000m. This is obvious to all but the most asinine morons. I smell like yak farts.

28 years old is an elderly age for a runner? To achieve a time that doesn't even require running any one lap faster than 61 seconds? How about starting your own thread to discuss that assertion. See what kind of feedback you get.

Magik Juice wrote:

Ryan Foreman wrote:

Moreover, even at 28 he is still improving.

Magic juice. That is the secret to "still improving" at an elderly age for a runner.

Once upon a time, back when he ran his PR at Pre while training though it en route to an Olympic silver medal and beating a few guys who went on to run 12:46-12:50 in Paris that same year, I thought Rupp was capable of a sub-12:50, perhaps 12:48 or so. Now I'm not so sure. He's not too old, but with family obligations and WCs or the Olympics for the next couple of years, I can't see him PRing at anything shorter than 10,000. I think if he got in the right race this year, he could go sub-12:55 and perhaps get the AR, but it would have to be optimal. Perhaps he will prove me wrong.

Rupp ran 26:48 with a 13:06 PR, though he didn't have the speed back then that he does now. He should also be much quicker than 26:44 some three years later. Perhaps he will be by the end of this year.

Again, the issue is Rupp's ceiling if we are sticking to the subject of this thread.

If we want to discuss what kind of time Rupp WILL run, it might be worth pointing out that we are in the month of August and the World Lead is only 12:59.82. In other words, forget about Rupp. Can anyone in the world run faster than 12:59 right now?

Agree, but was Rupp's ceiling in 2012 faster than it is this year? I think so.

Yes, because Rupp is getting older, not only in age, but his overall high-level training mileage is very high. People, like R. Foreman, who think Rupp will continue to improve forever are not willing to face reality.

My question is, will Rupp's fans turn on him if he can no longer run the times they "want" him to?

I am surprised no one has mentioned 12:55

Ugh. I will say it again for about the fourth time. The discussion is about Rupp's ceiling. Year over year season bests is not really the issue. In 2009 Rupp never ran the 10000M faster than his PB he had set in 2007. Did that mean he had hit his ceiling? Obviously it would have been crazy to think that. Look, at 28 years old Rupp is only getting stronger. That is what its all about when challenging for the best times in the 5000M. Ritz in 2009 is a prime example. Top end speed is the first thing to go with age. Show me evidence of that in Rupp before you even get to his ceiling in the 5000M.

Sagarin wrote:

Agree, but was Rupp's ceiling in 2012 faster than it is this year? I think so.