Adidas Boys Dream Mile Prediction Thread

So what are you expecting Connor to make the 2024 Olympic Marathon team at age 27?

NotAustin18 wrote:

Shawn H wrote:

Conner ran that 4:10 at nearly 5000 feet altitude in Provo, Utah. I'm not saying he has Saarel's speed yet, and he might not get there in high school, but he can run a 26 second 200 meters. With enough strength, which he has in spades, he could get his 400 down to 53-54. Win or lose, he should set a PB at Adidas. Just wait and see what he does at Footlocker next Fall. The kid's going to be great, I believe, at some distance. Right now my long term bet for him is the 10K (Eyestone did it and so can Mantz) and then the marathon.

So what are you expecting Connor to make the 2024 Olympic Marathon team at age 27?

Too many people burn out or stop improving or choose to do something else with their time or get injured for any predictions to make sense. You keep saying Maton is going to be NOP when he grows up, but that's just unnecessary pressure. Magness ran 4:00 and he never amounted to anything better than that.

That said, ConnEr Mantz has huge potential. He doesn't do high mileage yet has crazy endurance and has shown that he might be the greatest long distance talent of his class. Assuming he stays healthy and goes to a good coach and a million and five things go right, he could end up running 27:10 or 2:08. However, there are many more busts than booms.

Appreciate the athletes for what they are--incredible high school runners--rather than what they might be. It should be a fantastic race.

Grant Fisher is a really really good runner , and would have been my pick, saw him run Indoors and was a monster.

But what he has run is a long way from the 3:45.x and 4:01.x that O'Toole has run.and 1:50.16 carries some weight also.And he has run under 9 minutes.

Haik! Very impressive at St. Louis and the State Meet.

He loves soccer and continues to play it.

http://www.runnersworld.com/high-school-profiles/foot-locker-champion-fisher-is-a-two-sport-star

Here is a good article on it.

Amygdala wrote:

Too many people burn out or stop improving or choose to do something else with their time or get injured for any predictions to make sense. You keep saying Maton is going to be NOP when he grows up, but that's just unnecessary pressure. Magness ran 4:00 and he never amounted to anything better than that.

That said, ConnEr Mantz has huge potential. He doesn't do high mileage yet has crazy endurance and has shown that he might be the greatest long distance talent of his class. Assuming he stays healthy and goes to a good coach and a million and five things go right, he could end up running 27:10 or 2:08. However, there are many more busts than booms.

Appreciate the athletes for what they are--incredible high school runners--rather than what they might be. It should be a fantastic race.

Well said, Amygdala.

O'Toole 4:00.7

Tell me what the 1/2 mile split is and I'll tell you who win. Slower than 2:04? the Wyoming kid will win by 10 meters. There is a very big difference between low 48 speed and high 50.

Faster than 2:01? O'toole.

If I'm not mistaken the Wyoming kid was at NXN, so he isn't completely gutless when it comes to a base he can work from. Anyone know if the kid ran an all out 3200 this year?

O'Toole has plenty of underside speed to win a slower paced mile .

Also, you kick off of strength , not just raw flat speed.

O'Toole as a sub 9 and a 1:50.16 guy , has plenty of both.

kdawgMike wrote:

Tell me what the 1/2 mile split is and I'll tell you who win. Slower than 2:04? the Wyoming kid will win by 10 meters. There is a very big difference between low 48 speed and high 50.

Faster than 2:01? O'toole.

If I'm not mistaken the Wyoming kid was at NXN, so he isn't completely gutless when it comes to a base he can work from. Anyone know if the kid ran an all out 3200 this year?

Andres Arroyo had the best raw speed of the class in the dream mile last year, they reached the bell at like 3:06, and he folded "like a bad hand of cards," in the words of another poster. Raw speed doesn't determine a huge kick. However, Faure certainly does have a big kick. He's outkicked fellow dream miler Conner Mantz in an indoor 3200, as well as most of the other people he's ever raced. However, I wouldn't say he's a lock to win if it's slower than 2:04 at the 800; Grant Fisher might be the favorite in that case.

My money is on cerake gebrkidane. He is underrated but always finds a way to race in big meets. Watch---he'll get it done.

When is the Race and how can it be viewed?

therealslims26 wrote:

My money is on cerake gebrkidane. He is underrated but always finds a way to race in big meets. Watch---he'll get it done.

He's right, never bet against an East African

Going to go with Maton.

Mostly as I grew up in Bend (though Summit didn't exist when I went through high school).

The thing about Maton is he hasn't race a ton this year, and from what I read he has been point towards/peaking with the summer races (Jr championships ) in mind.

He ran a couple 800s early. Ran a couple 1500s hard, Really only 1 3k. The rest were mostly just running for wins with a hard last couple of laps.

I'm not sure of the others but he won't be tired/fried from a long track season.

I think someone will take it out fast and carry the field to 2:00 at 800. O'Toole will sit at the back of the back and work his way up on the 3rd quarter, and finish under 4:00.

He looked very strong at the Adrian Martinez Classic, and he was wasn't pressing to get that 4:01. He finished with a pretty killer last 200. 3:59.6

I'm going with wrote:

Going to go with Maton.

Mostly as I grew up in Bend (though Summit didn't exist when I went through high school).

The thing about Maton is he hasn't race a ton this year, and from what I read he has been point towards/peaking with the summer races (Jr championships ) in mind.

He ran a couple 800s early. Ran a couple 1500s hard, Really only 1 3k. The rest were mostly just running for wins with a hard last couple of laps.

I'm not sure of the others but he won't be tired/fried from a long track season.

exactly! Oregon needs to represent!

Grant Fisher FTW.

Garyb wrote:

Grant Fisher FTW.

Just a Junior, well coached, always has the right race plan going in. Great kid!

Coulda told you that was going to happen. That's why he's the BOSS.Where are all those NXN guys? Where are those Washington/Oregon boys? Where are those fast 800 guys?Hahaha- Love this site. Full of morons.

Garyb wrote:

Grant Fisher FTW.