Efraimson 4:33

- wrote:

WA state population has nearly doubled in 30 or so years. There should be more running sub 4:16.

Do the odds of running under 4:16 increase with more runners running near that pace? Yes, actually we should expect even more at this level than expected by increasing numbers alone. With a few fast competitors, the race is more likely to become tactical, lagging before a kick. Again with more in the race, more likely someone will deem it sensible to run hard early to avoid jostling or get position.

This isn't to say the coaching isn't better or the races more competitive, but still demographics are demographics.

http://www.pop.org/content/u-s-birth-echo-boom-fades-away-1088

That may be true overall, but school-aged populations have been declining, at least in Spokane, over the past 10 years. North Central, Mount Spokane, University, and Shadle Park all used to qualify as 4A schools; now they are 3A. East Valley was a 3A school; not it is 2A. There haven't been any new high schools built in Spokane in the past 15 years. So, there are definitely less high school students in Spokane now then there were in the mid to late 90s, when University, Mead, and Ferris were the top teams in the nation as opposed to North Central.

She also ran a solo 4:37 last week, and 2:06.

spokanexc wrote:

That may be true overall, but school-aged populations have been declining, at least in Spokane, over the past 10 years. North Central, Mount Spokane, University, and Shadle Park all used to qualify as 4A schools; now they are 3A. East Valley was a 3A school; not it is 2A. There haven't been any new high schools built in Spokane in the past 15 years. So, there are definitely less high school students in Spokane now then there were in the mid to late 90s, when University, Mead, and Ferris were the top teams in the nation as opposed to North Central.

Do you know how school classifications are determined? It's not based on a set number of students. They just take the 65 biggest schools and call them 4A and move along down from there. Therefore, schools changing classification is totally unrelated to total population of students in the state.

Ran across this video:

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=m8iEqbMJZvY

West of the Cascades wrote:

including a WA Soph record in the 4A race (4:08.50).

And ELEVEN runners under 4:15. I can't recall a deeper state race than that.[/quote]

lol. CA has had several years much deeper.

juzzzt sayin wrote:

West of the Cascades wrote:

including a WA Soph record in the 4A race (4:08.50).

And ELEVEN runners under 4:15. I can't recall a deeper state race than that.

lol. CA has had several years much deeper.[/quote]

Care to share which years?

Also, that was just the 4A race.

+1

However, some of those schools HAVE been shrinking (as is always the case, enrollments fluctuate within schools all across the state - snapshots). Spokane might have fewer (or at least not any more) HS students than they did 20 years ago, but places like the Tri-Cities, Vancouver, and probably Seattle have more.

Overall, the # of students in Washington probably hasn't changed dramatically, but I'd guess there are about as many students today as there were in the mid/late 90's (which, by the way, is at the beginning end of the "Echo Boom" generation referenced before, which should have started graduating in the early/mid 90's and should have started tapering off only last year or so). That can actually be tracked (roughly) back to 1996, or at least the public school enrollment figures can be:

October '96 - 974,504 students in WA Public schools (K-12)

October '97 - 991,235 students in WA Public schools (K-12)

October '98 - 999,616 students in WA Public schools (K-12)

October '99 - 1,003,701 students in WA Public schools (K-12)

October '00 - 1,004,843 students in WA Public schools (K-12)

October '01 - 1,010,424 students in WA Public schools (K-12)

October '02 - 1,015,968 students in WA Public schools (K-12)

October '03 - 1,021,309 students in WA Public schools (K-12)

October '04 - 1,020,959 students in WA Public schools (K-12)

October '05 - 1,013,189 students in WA Public schools (K-12)

October '06 - 1,026,682 students in WA Public schools (K-12)

October '07 - 1,031,846 students in WA Public schools (K-12)

October '08 - 1,038,345 students in WA Public schools (K-12)

October '09 - 1,036,135 students in WA Public schools (K-12)

October '10 - 1,041,892 students in WA Public schools (K-12)

October '11 - 1,043,536 students in WA Public schools (K-12)

October '12 - 1,050,900 students in WA Public schools (K-12)

... that shows a gradual increase in public school enrollment in Washington over the past 17 years, with a notable increase from 1996-2002 but then a more gradual increase (trend) since.

coach comments nicely wrote:

Care to share which years?

Also, that was just the 4A race.

Tonight, at just the SoCal (SS) Masters Meet (not the State Meet), here's the 1600m breakdown:

4:09

4:10

4:10

4:11

4:11

4:12

4:12

4:13

4:13

4:15

4:15

4:16

That's all levels, SoCal only (Southern Section). only the top 9 are going to state.

Tamagno ran 4:10.65, and he's a sophomore, so keep an eye on him.

Girls had 10 under 5:00 (again, SoCal only). 5 under 4:50.

easy there... wrote:

coach comments nicely wrote:

Care to share which years?

Also, that was just the 4A race.

Tonight, at just the SoCal (SS) Masters Meet (not the State Meet), here's the 1600m breakdown:

4:09

4:10

4:10

4:11

4:11

4:12

4:12

4:13

4:13

4:15

4:15

4:16

That's all levels, SoCal only (Southern Section). only the top 9 are going to state.

Tamagno ran 4:10.65, and he's a sophomore, so keep an eye on him.

Girls had 10 under 5:00 (again, SoCal only). 5 under 4:50.

http://www.prepcaltrack.com

That didn't exactly answer the question. However, I certainly wouldn't be surprised if California has had a few years with more sub-4:15's... California is many times larger, and has only one class at state. A more fair comparison would be CIF-SS Division 1 Finals (though CIF-SS is still almost three times as big).

watchout wrote:

That didn't exactly answer the question. However, I certainly wouldn't be surprised if California has had a few years with more sub-4:15's... California is many times larger, and has only one class at state. A more fair comparison would be CIF-SS Division 1 Finals (though CIF-SS is still almost three times as big).

Well, the original poster didn't ask for a 'fair comparison'. If you want to even out populations, you're gonna need to pay me for that analysis...

But since you brought up SS D1 Finals...

4:11

4:11

4:11

4:11

4:11

4:12

4:16

4:17

4:17

D2? 4:06, 4:07, 4:10, 4:14, 4:16

D3? 4:09, 4:10, 4:10, 4:11, 4:13, 4:16

D4? 4:13, 4:15.

Also consider that this is two meets BEFORE the State Meet. One would expect faster times at State.

No area of the country comes close to the depth in California's SS, no doubt.

easy there... wrote:

watchout wrote:

That didn't exactly answer the question. However, I certainly wouldn't be surprised if California has had a few years with more sub-4:15's... California is many times larger, and has only one class at state. A more fair comparison would be CIF-SS Division 1 Finals (though CIF-SS is still almost three times as big).

Well, the original poster didn't ask for a 'fair comparison'. If you want to even out populations, you're gonna need to pay me for that analysis...

But since you brought up SS D1 Finals...

4:11

4:11

4:11

4:11

4:11

4:12

4:16

4:17

4:17

D2? 4:06, 4:07, 4:10, 4:14, 4:16

D3? 4:09, 4:10, 4:10, 4:11, 4:13, 4:16

D4? 4:13, 4:15.

Also consider that this is two meets BEFORE the State Meet. One would expect faster times at State.

No area of the country comes close to the depth in California's SS, no doubt.

Sorry, but your post wasn't exactly sticking to the OP either, which is why I noted the difference between California and Washington populations.

A good answer to the OP would have been "California had 11 guys at 4:14 or better at state last year" (at which point we could have noted that California is more than 8x the size of Washington and only has 1 classification, versus Washington's 6, but regardless it would have been on point with the OP).

I think Alexa will show her medal and dominate those 2 girls! She has caught up with them a year before I thought she would. Her rookie antics are a thing of the past. That speed is sick!

My Summer Predictions:

Alexa Efraimson

800m 2:01.23 (the .23 is for Jordan, clutch baby)

1500m 4:04.04 (Silver at the World Junior Championships)

Mary Cain

800m 2:00.00 (Tough season/year)

1500m 4:06.99 (3rd at the World Junior Championships)

Elise Cranny

800m 2:02

1500m 4:10 (No breaks, she ran too hard already, burnt)

Wonderful fluidity to her running style. She makes a fast pace look effortless.

watchout wrote:

Xcrunnerdude wrote:

Not to take anything away from Alexa's performance but this is just a good performance for her not a great one. Christine Babcock ran a 4:33 1600 her senior year and was a phenomenal runner but Alexa is on a different level.

obviously not as fast as her 4:32y, but still a good race considering it was solo (and she has tended to not run so well when she's not pacing off others). This was clearly her best solo effort to date.

babcock's race was also solo, was it not?

Stupid Belligerent Drunk wrote:

watchout wrote:

obviously not as fast as her 4:32y, but still a good race considering it was solo (and she has tended to not run so well when she's not pacing off others). This was clearly her best solo effort to date.

babcock's race was also solo, was it not?

I'm not sure what that has to do with Efraimson, but... yes, Babcock's former record was also a solo effort (#2 in Babcock's race was 4:49.63, while Christen ran 4:49.43 behind Efraimson's record).

LOLWUT.