Can Kiprop Break the 1500M WR?

oosk wrote:

violent crime wrote:

as is Geb's

Thanks for supporting my point

If supporting means saying the opposite, you're welcome.

While both styles of training (championship and time trial styles) will obviously get you in great shape, there's a factor of specificity in championship style racing in working on your kick. Obviously in a time trial you'll want to be able to kick as well, but you'd more care about being able to hold a faster pace and not falling apart than you would about being to close in 52 off a slower pace.

violent crime wrote:

If supporting means saying the opposite, you're welcome.

The fact that you're saying the opposite is what strengthens my point. Learn to comprehend what you're reading.

I explained it in the comment above you. There is much more to factor in than just recent times. The 1500 ceiling is lower for the men than the women. Maybe he'll prove me wrong, but I doubt it. The women have more room to work with based on how slow their accumilative times are.

Women milers have been atrociously weak the last 3+ decades. Consider that if the suspect Chinese records were erased from the books the real world record in the women's 1500 would be 3:52 set in 1980! That would stand as the oldest record in the books and would be the longest standing record ever in the FAT era.

Aregawi and Dibaba and even the other women milers right now are all really young and talented, they are all capable of going much faster. It's more of a psychological barrier for them right now. Once they do it, believe me it will be an avalanche of girls going sub-3:50

oosk wrote:

violent crime wrote:

If supporting means saying the opposite, you're welcome.

The fact that you're saying the opposite is what strengthens my point. Learn to comprehend what you're reading.

I'm saying the opposite of what you're saying.

Learn to comprehend what you're reading.

Compared to the day Guerrouj set the 1500m record, Asbel already has better credentials in the 1500, 800, and championship racing.

Guerrouj did have a 3:44 in the books, and would later go on to run dozens of sub 3:30s, including three or four 3:26s, but he was only a 1:47/3:28 man when he broke the 1500 record.

Dead times are more relevant when evaluating sprints. 1500 races have so much more going on tactically. You can have a really brilliant run but it ends up a slow time because the pace or there was a really physical race or a box race. Lots can happen.

Looks to me like one of his shoes may have been untied during the 3:32.

I'm not sure he can do it unless one of his own countrymen sacrifices their own race for his sake. The most likely man would be Kiplagat but I don't see someone with his accomplishments and goals willing to do so. I would expect him to lead Kiprop all the way through 1200 but then hobble home in >3:30.

Before 24 Guerrouj had broken the record he ran 3:28.92 & 3:28.91 (both in '97, at age 23). His 3:26 came the next year and he never ran that quick again - but was fit enough to run sub 3:27 again in '98, once in '01, and twice in '02. I don't know if WCs were run every odd year back then, but if they were that's 4/5 in non championship seasons.

Kiprop ran 3:28.88 at 23 in '12, and the 3:27.7 was last year.

I guess numerically it's ok.

There is a huge gap between 3:27 high and sub 3:26.

Kiprop had good pacing to the bell and guys close enough behind to keep him going last year in Monaco. With absolute perfect conditions and pacing he might be able to get to 3:27 low based on that run last year. I don't think he's shown enough yet to convince he's in much better form than last year.

A 3:26 would require someone drafting him to bell in 2:31/2:32 and then someone close enough to maintain that pace pushing from behind over the last lap.

I don't see him breaking 3:27.

nonsense

he went out in a stoopid 53-low, when near 55-flat was required

he then ran about 2.5m wide on 3rd from last bend stalking pacer, which alone cost ~ 0.35s

he then was solo from nearly 500 out as pacer coudn't go fast enough

he couda gone 3'26-mid with perfect even pacing to bell + tight lane 1

hicham in his wr couda gone 3'25-mid with a perfect race

the intrinsic difference between them is more like

1.0s

he needs muscle mass to get there

whether he has put it on will depend on his comments &/or careful vid analysis

Caged wrote:I don't think Kiprop has that kind of speed. I think he's maxed out his potential.

I think Aregawi has a better chance of getting the women's mark. That Chinese mark is a bit of a soft mark nowadays, and Aregawi has the speed, but hasn't targeted it yet. When she does, look out.

some of biggest drivel i've seen posted here

the swede hasn't even cracked 3'56 & now she is in 3'49 shape ???

she coudn't even crack 3'58 in doha

chinese mark soft ???

utter drivel

where are the bucketloads of recent 3'51s/3'52s to suggest this ???

swede has the speed ???

qu had 1'56.24 speed at the time

what is the swede's 800pb ???

Unless the info is already out there, and I missed it, I'm guessing Asbel is going to go for it in Monaco.

We're about six or seven weeks out from that. What sort of performance would you expect him to drop at Pre as preparation?

If he's gunning to be the first man under 3:26, a 3:48 mile at pre won't be what he's looking for. But would he want to be running 3:44 at this point?

extra muscle mass would ruin his insane running economy.

he can go 3:23 any day now - in a perfectly rabbited race,

Evening out splits and taking off 0.3 for wide running will not bring a 3:27.7 down by 1.2secs.

You stated last week that drafting was worth 0.7 a lap, so 100m is equal to less than 0.2. Or is lack of drafting worth 1.0 sec for Kiprop, the same as Ryun?

i haven't looked closely at his doha 1500, but he didn't look too overly ambitious until last 50 or 60m

i need to watch race again

i just got impression he just wanted to whup maloofi & silas, who have both beat him last coupla years

he did look to be toying with them

he's obviously in at worst 3'28-flat/low at present in perfect + flat-out run

his current upper limit is unknown

eugene is usually windy/cool

i think 3'47 is all he woud aim for

if eugene wanted serious time, they need to get magut pacing

( he's now a 3'30 guy !!! ) & offer serious $$$ for a 3'44/3'45

something like :

- $100k for a 3'45

- $150k for a 3'44

they woud need to look for $200k+ payout for 3'43.12wr

sounds outrageous money, but mo got ? $1m for 2y london M deal

asbel won't be chasing anything super-fast unless he gets offered serious $ incentive & they will pay magut to pace him

I'd love to at least see Asbel run a 3:45 or 3:27/3:26 high this year. That would still mark him as the best miler in recent times, at least in my book.

Anyways, I appreciate all the informed responses, guys!

ventolin^3 wrote:

Caged wrote:I don't think Kiprop has that kind of speed. I think he's maxed out his potential.

I think Aregawi has a better chance of getting the women's mark. That Chinese mark is a bit of a soft mark nowadays, and Aregawi has the speed, but hasn't targeted it yet. When she does, look out.

some of biggest drivel i've seen posted here

the swede hasn't even cracked 3'56 & now she is in 3'49 shape ???

she coudn't even crack 3'58 in doha

chinese mark soft ???

utter drivel

where are the bucketloads of recent 3'51s/3'52s to suggest this ???

swede has the speed ???

qu had 1'56.24 speed at the time

what is the swede's 800pb ???

No, the drivel is every retard post I've seen by you, especially the one where you said Genzebe would beat Aregawi every time they raced this season. Dibaba doesn't even want to face her, she's ducking her. Who avoids running their best event after breaking an indoor world record? LMAO!

If you had any brains you could comprehend the rest of my posts and my explanation as to why the women's 1500 is vulnerable. Explaining something to you is like trying to communicate with a squid.

Caged wrote:

ventolin^3 wrote:

some of biggest drivel i've seen posted here

the swede hasn't even cracked 3'56 & now she is in 3'49 shape ???

she coudn't even crack 3'58 in doha

chinese mark soft ???

utter drivel

where are the bucketloads of recent 3'51s/3'52s to suggest this ???

swede has the speed ???

qu had 1'56.24 speed at the time

what is the swede's 800pb ???

No, the drivel is every retard post I've seen by you, especially the one where you said Genzebe would beat Aregawi every time they raced this season. Dibaba doesn't even want to face her, she's ducking her. Who avoids running their best event after breaking an indoor world record? LMAO!

If you had any brains you could comprehend the rest of my posts and my explanation as to why the women's 1500 is vulnerable. Explaining something to you is like trying to communicate with a squid.

Gonna have to agree with ventolin. Aregawi is worlds away from the 1500m WR. Her PR is 3:56 and you think she's a threat to go 3:49!!! Hahaha what are you smoking? She's never done a thing to show she's remotely capable of a time like that. I'll be stunned is she ever even goes sub 3:54. Get a clue dude