Kenyan 4 x 1500 Not A Lock For Gold

Crazy Huge Base + Drugs wrote:

If Kenya is smart, run Kiprop first and have him totally blitz the first 800, opening up an insurmountable gap. Game over at that point, but Kenya usually runs completely stupid so they'll probably put him last.

Honestly, who do you think can take Kiprop on the last leg or even the last 100m? When you "Kenya usually runs completely stupid", you mean they don't give others a fair shot because these "stupid" tactics seem to work for them just fine.

Its does not matter who they have run first , last or in the middle , this Kenyan team is good , its 4 runners remember , most teams have only one at their level.

Drafting , Im not sure if the US wore speed skating suits it would matter. I don't know many international athletes or coaches that talk about drafting , more about pace and positioning.

Of course they should put Kiprop last. If their only goal is to win, the only way they lose with Kiprop last is if they hand off significantly behind the others. You could just tell your first three runners to draft off whoever is in first, then Kiprop would win on the anchor.

My point, exactly, is that...Kenya is not a lock for gold.

They have a very high chance of winning, of course. As you stated, though, they all plan to run sub 3:37. Not 3:30, but 3:37. That will probably still be enough to win, but 3:37 gives the other teams hope. How many of the other runners haven't run 3:37 or faster before? In any athletics event, if a team has hope, they have a chance. Even if it's 1 in a 100, it's a chance.

The underdogs must execute perfectly, they can't just "go run their race" and hope for the best.

Ego mania wrote:

I don't know many international athletes or coaches that talk about drafting , more about pace and positioning.

That will change eventually.

If the Kenyans can win the 800m with an inexperienced team sure they can win the 1500m. They don't have to run 3:30s, they just have to run smart and and still win big.

Let's see...strategies for US beating Kenya....

Sending Tonya Harding as Assistant Coach (not as crazy as sending Mitchell)

Praying for the Rapture

Maybe if we had any of those blankets leftover from our mission to the Native Americans

banana peels on the track

Maybe if Team Kenya was sponsored by Brooks they could get DQed

Can anyone think of other strategies? because out running them is simply not an option. I don't know why this is such a big deal. The Kenyans are looking to break the WR, they expect to lead wire to wire. Even with Bernard Lagat, Sydney Maree, Alan Webb, and Andrew Wheating running their PRs US may not have a chance.

And what if Kenya maintains w/ us the first 3 legs, drafts of us, and then hands Kiprop the baton to go head to head against Leo? What will happen then? Then it's just a race between Kiprop and Leo... And we all know how that will turn out, so if Kenya even has the slightest lead going into the last leg w/ Kiprop last then we have a very hard time winning...

Tell him bro...(We)Kenyans can stop to pee and still do it.

CPT Obvious wrote:

Let's see...strategies for US beating Kenya....

Sending Tonya Harding as Assistant Coach (not as crazy as sending Mitchell)

Praying for the Rapture

Maybe if we had any of those blankets leftover from our mission to the Native Americans

banana peels on the track

Maybe if Team Kenya was sponsored by Brooks they could get DQed

Can anyone think of other strategies? because out running them is simply not an option. I don't know why this is such a big deal. The Kenyans are looking to break the WR, they expect to lead wire to wire. Even with Bernard Lagat, Sydney Maree, Alan Webb, and Andrew Wheating running their PRs US may not have a chance.

It only takes one person not running well to lose it. One thing about the Kenyans is they are inconsistent and unpredictable. 1 bad Kenyan leg - like in the 4 x 800m can ruin it. But, the Americans would have to have 4 consistent legs.

Get your best runner to run firat. Don't leave to last like they did with the women.

Uh, you were saying? Stop creating fake drama. This was a foregone conclusion.

Crazy Huge Base + Drugs wrote:

LM wrote:

How is it dangerous in anyway. Kiprop doesn't even have to lead if he doesn't have a gap. He can just cruise 2:55+ or so and kick a 37 or 38 and win easy.

I think you are really underestimating how good Kiprop is.

You think someone is foolish enough to run 2:55 through 1200 with him sitting right behind them? God I really hope not. That would be embarrassing.

Do I think someone is foolish enough to jog 59 seconds laps to the bell. Yea I definitely do. That's snoozefest pace for a guy that can run 55 second laps at that pace.

Remember that one time where David Rudisha ran like 49.x in the Olympics with everyone sitting beyond him? What we are talking about with Kiprop would be like cruising to the bell in 52 or 53 in an 800.

So much for that pie in the sky dream. Casey ran well and Torrence looked good for 1300m. Over after that. Leer ran solid. Manzano showed how much harder it is to run in the wind!

Really impressed with Kiplagat and Kiprop. Sub 3:33 run in this format is brilliant. Hats off to Kenya.

Crazy Huge Base + Drugs wrote:

Haha, YO (super cereal) wrote:

I agree having Kip run the first leg and going out really hard would be the best strategy. Who is the USs first leg? Whoever it is will get their lungs blown out and will probably not be able to stay within 5 seconds.

Haven't heard any details, but would assume none of the Kenyans can run faster than 3:34 solo, which means the US men could theoretically stay very close.

This is an interesting thread but looks like a lot of it was proven to be incorrect as Kenya got at least two 3:32s solo.

OP, your theory sounds good on paper but doesn't work. It's hard to say, "don't let a gap open up." How does a 3:34 guy not let a gap open up when he's racing a 3:27 guy.

If Kenya didn't want to blow it open early, and I think it would have been risky to run Kiprop first, I'd tell him, "Run with the pack and then blow their doors off over the final 600."

Even if it's slow, no one could hang with him or Kiplagat.

rojo wrote:

This is an interesting thread but looks like a lot of it was proven to be incorrect as Kenya got at least two 3:32s solo.

OP, your theory sounds good on paper but doesn't work. It's hard to say, "don't let a gap open up." How does a 3:34 guy not let a gap open up when he's racing a 3:27 guy.

If Kenya didn't want to blow it open early, and I think it would have been risky to run Kiprop first, I'd tell him, "Run with the pack and then blow their doors off over the final 600."

Even if it's slow, no one could hang with him or Kiplagat.

A lot of it was proven to be incorrect? I guess. I mean, two of the Kenyans ran about 1.5 seconds faster than I thought they would.

The part where I mentioned you can save about 1.25 seconds per lap was about right, as the 3:27.72 guy runs...3:32.3, which is 3:27.72 + 1.22 per lap? Sorry I was off by about .03 hundreths of a seconds per lap, my bad. (assuming he really did split 3:32.3) It looks like Kiplagat ran his PR of 3:29.27 + .93 seconds per lap. Off by about .32 seconds per lap. That dude is really fit right now, very impressive run.

Kenya had two guys run 3:38.x (on average) and a 3:32.3 and 3:32.7. Of course it will be impossible for a 3:34 guy to stay with a 3:27 guy, but the hope is that the 3:27 guy is a little off and is a 3:30 guy instead (in a pack) that day and the 3:34 guy is on great form and is a 3:33 guy (in a pack) that day. Suddenly, an upset is possible.

Obviously it didn't happen because two of the Kenyans were on great form and that made up for the two that were just average. You have to have a plan to win and staying on them as long as possible was the only option. Torrence ran great; he stayed on until he blew up.

I think there may have been some misinterpretation all along, like people thought I was saying the US was a favorite to win if they ran tactically astute. All I was saying was that if the US ran properly, they HAD A CHANCE, albeit a very slim one...meaning...Kenya wasn't a lock for gold. That's all.

Manzano didn't really show up to run from the looks of it anyway. Maybe you guys should change your password back to his name.

Sorry, but you're making even less sense. When you say the US "HAD A CHANCE", what does that mean exactly, especially given the gap between 1st and 2nd was a mere 18 seconds?

Obviously it didn't happen because two of the Kenyans were on great form and that made up for the two that were just average.

?????Fuzzy math. If those two Kenyans were "Average" what does that mean for the American or Ethiopian legs...below average? The two "slow" Kenyan legs were slow for them...not slow. Wind wasn't the prime obstacle (the US and Ethiopia/Aus groups were running out by themselves as well). The prime obstacle is that this event is not a common one, knowing how to pace by one's self or in relation to other teams is different than a rabbited or non rabbited race. The mind blowing thing is that Kenya could have substituted a number of runners in there and had similar performances.

The US had no chance, they ran against a team that did this better than anyone else in history...no shame in that. The US should be proud.