To beat Lagat at worlds people should take it out HARD

coach d wrote:

When Bekele did NOT ramp it up with 600m to go in 2007, Lagat beat him. You CANNOT beat a miler at the miler's game if you're not one of them. They should have learned that in 2004 when they tried to pull that same stunt against El Guerrouj.

I believe Hill could have taken out Rupp if he had gone with 3 laps to go, Bekele style.

Wrong Bekele, but he learned from his brother's mistake sure.

cbenson4 wrote:

Some Things Should Be Obvious wrote:

Folks' top priority is not beating Lagat. It is maximizing their chances at a medal - hopefully a gold.

Unless you are clearly superior to THE FIELD than you are likely committing suicide by setting a hard pace and letting others draft off of you.

Why is this so hard for you SUPPOSED runners to understand?!?

If Gebremeskel and Gebrhiwet shared the lead (don't know if they'd be willing to agree to that) then it would be possible.

Possible? Anything is possible. So what?

Gebremeskel and Gebrhiwet are two different individuals, each with a mind of his own, each with the motivation to go for the gold himself. Elementary game theory says that the odds are strongly against cooperation. Why is this so difficult to understand?

Some Things Should Be Obvious wrote:

cbenson4 wrote:

If Gebremeskel and Gebrhiwet shared the lead (don't know if they'd be willing to agree to that) then it would be possible.

Possible? Anything is possible. So what?

Gebremeskel and Gebrhiwet are two different individuals, each with a mind of his own, each with the motivation to go for the gold himself. Elementary game theory says that the odds are strongly against cooperation. Why is this so difficult to understand?

Why are you getting so frustrated? I understand completely what you're saying. I was just thinking they'd have a good shot out burning out Lagat if they went hard because I think both of them are in better shape than Lagat.

coach d wrote:

--If you want to beat Lagat, you do what Bekele and El Guerrouj (or Cram) did--ramp it up hard from 600 out. THIS is what I would have done if I was coaching Hill in Albuquerque.

Yeah, do what Bekele and El Guerrouj (or Cram) did.

Become a world record holder and then outrun them.

Brilliant strategy!

Did Hill set a world record that I don't know about?

cbenson4 wrote:

Some Things Should Be Obvious wrote:

Possible? Anything is possible. So what?

Gebremeskel and Gebrhiwet are two different individuals, each with a mind of his own, each with the motivation to go for the gold himself. Elementary game theory says that the odds are strongly against cooperation. Why is this so difficult to understand?

Why are you getting so frustrated? I understand completely what you're saying. I was just thinking they'd have a good shot out burning out Lagat if they went hard because I think both of them are in better shape than Lagat.

Frustrated? Not me. You must have me confused with someone else.

Yes, of course they could beat Lagat if they took it hard from the gun. I don't disagree with that.

kenyuh wrote:

* wrote:

Kenya got a medal in the 5 and 10 last year. That's good.

They weren't going to beat Farah at any pace.

That's only true if you think no Kenyan was in sub 26:45ish shape. Farah clearly wasn't.

How do you clearly know that Farah wasn't in 26:45 pace?

Did he try that pace somewhere and fall off?

Was there a race I missed where he couldn't keep up?

I know he ran a 3:28 1500 last year and a competitive half marathon against Bekele. And he ran 26:45 a couple years before that.

What makes you think he was in worse shape while winning two Golds?

not really guy wrote:

And what was the finishing time of the race genius.

12.52. Not fast for 2003 El Guerrouj.

game theory deals with atomic individuals. in the past, ethiopia, kenya, and morocco had a spirit of communal cooperation and used team tactics in championship meets. it's easier to sacrifice someone when there are three on your team and/or you have a dominant athlete, far better than the others (el g, geb). But in recent years, they've not had this spirit of sacrifice at all. I don't see it starting at world indoor. Lagat will put himself into position to win and we'll see if gebremeskel and/or gebhriwet have what it takes to hold him off. Lagat's got a great shot at a medal and it would not surprise me at all if it were gold. However, G-Wet might be the next big thing. We'll see if he makes that leap in this race.

* wrote:

How do you clearly know that Farah wasn't in 26:45 pace?

Did he try that pace somewhere and fall off?

Was there a race I missed where he couldn't keep up?

I know he ran a 3:28 1500 last year and a competitive half marathon against Bekele. And he ran 26:45 a couple years before that.

What makes you think he was in worse shape while winning two Golds?

Because winning golds in a sit and kick 27:30 10k race has little to do with being in sub 26:45 shape. Anyone with a brain realizes this. Asbel Kiprop could have won or at least gotten a medal in that race.

And also because Farah LOST that half marathon and was completely spent. And his kick was noinexistent. That clearly shows that 60:10 was close to his max that day. A 26:45 Farah would have been able to run his usual 52ish final 400m if he was really in that shape. But he didn't. His final 400m was around 59 or 60.

And he also dodged Bekele at Pre when Bekele asked for a fast pace. And everyone else in the group showed increased speed and decreased endurance.

162430 wrote:

Luckily for Lagat, the Gebrs are moronic racers. They will try to sit and kick and Lagat will dust them all on the last lap. 7:49 FTW. Those fools.

Like he did in Moscow?

He had that clever tactic of stepping out to lane 2 right after HG torched the backstretch in 12.55, I guess. That forced Hagos to slow to 13.97 as he waited for Bernie to get the hell out of his way. That kept him from quite catching Farah even with a 13.05 homestretch. But it sure beat the hell out of Lagat's 15.02 crabwalk.

HG had the fastest last lap despite losing an entire second to the traffic. I don't think Lagat is gonna outkick him.

Why is this so hard to understand?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=---LOIB8idE

No killing hard pace through most of the race, but Bekele starts to wind it up with 600 to go--and winds it up seriously at the bell. Lagat's right there but can never get past him.

I'm with Mr. Wigins on this... I don't think Lagat can beat Gebrhiwet in this one.

Agreed. At this level, I think Lagat has often show poor tactics, and lost more races that he should have because of it.

LOL II wrote:

not really guy wrote:

And what was the finishing time of the race genius.

12.52. Not fast for 2003 El Guerrouj.

About two seconds faster than his PB, which he ran in a race where he was beaten by Shaheen. Clearly a fast pace for El G.

well,. wrote:

About two seconds faster than his PB, which he ran in a race where he was beaten by Shaheen. Clearly a fast pace for El G.

Point taken.

jjjjjjjjj wrote:

game theory deals with atomic individuals. ...

Actually, no, it does not limit itself in this way.

But thank you for playing.

kenyuh wrote:

Because winning golds in a sit and kick 27:30 10k race has little to do with being in sub 26:45 shape. Anyone with a brain realizes this. Asbel Kiprop could have won or at least gotten a medal in that race.

And also because Farah LOST that half marathon and was completely spent. And his kick was noinexistent. That clearly shows that 60:10 was close to his max that day. A 26:45 Farah would have been able to run his usual 52ish final 400m if he was really in that shape. But he didn't. His final 400m was around 59 or 60.

And he also dodged Bekele at Pre when Bekele asked for a fast pace. And everyone else in the group showed increased speed and decreased endurance.

Farah ran 27:21 not 27:30.

He closed in 54, not 59 or 60.

It was 80 degrees and humid.

Huma, Merga and Gebremeskel were the only ones under 27 last year and none of them got a medal. I don't see how they were going to lead and win.

Winning a slow race doesn't show you can't run fast.

Being beaten badly would show you may not be able to run fast.

Farah lost by one second in that half marathon, so you can't judge his fitness there either.

Dodging Bekele at Pre did suck but that race was slow enough that Bekele didn't make the 4 man Ethiopian team.

Because anyone who dare sets a fast pace will be DQed by Lord Salazar. While the coach of said athlete will receive a physical beat down from Darth Salazar.

kenyuh wrote:

That's only true if you think no Kenyan was in sub 26:45ish shape. Farah clearly wasn't.

What exactly makes you think Farah "clearly" wasn't in sub 26:45 shape?