10 years ago, US was an embarrassment in mid-d ranks (none in Worlds final of 800/1500), now we are a world power - Why?

not a sheep wrote:

The answer my friend, is pharmaceuticals. Acknowledge, move on.

Which of course ARE available exclusively in the US.

And here is when the ARs for mid distance were set

M800: 1999

M1500: 1983

W800: 1985

W1500: 2005

So I'm not sure that the top ten lists have really been "obliterated."

Consider This wrote:

Which of course ARE available exclusively in the US.

Oh on the contrary, the latest and most undetectable drugs are available every where, and get to all parts of the world at exactly the same time. Always has been that way. Its the reason Jan Ulrich and so many other cyclists that finished behind Lance got caught while Lance didnt. It its probably the reason the most dominant team of all time, US postal, had zero positives while lesser teams where getting destroyed by drug busts.

Consider This wrote:

And here is when the ARs for mid distance were set

M800: 1999

M1500: 1983

W800: 1985

W1500: 2005

So I'm not sure that the top ten lists have really been "obliterated."

do you understand the difference between top ten and top 1?

The internet? Seriously?

Notice that Monti didn't even mention the word internet. I think you know what Salazar and Mary Cain think of internet message boards. But what has been huge are programs like USATF's Podium Education Project (before Terry Crawford ruined it) and USTFCCCA's Symposiums, as well as the programs every year put together by people like Scott Simmons.

THE WRATH OF (Khan) BROOKS JOHNSON

When's the last time you saw Salazar boasting about how many miles his athletes run? But he talks about Rupp's claimed sprinting speed...and he talks about how slow Farah ran his mileage before NOP and how he runs it quite a bit faster now. With Centro, he talks about the 80 meter sprints instituted last spring.

This I think is the primary difference. When he was still on top in the late 2000's and won double medals in two consecutive world championships, Lagat exposed Americans by brute force to what the world competition standard was. Athletes and coaches learned that they had to train harder and faster. And these days it's the Americans that have the smoke in the final lap instead of just running mileage and getting smoked. A LOT more speed.

Total middle distance medals 800/1500, Moscow and London:

USA 5

Kenya 4

CoachB wrote:

Did all of the guys on that list play travel ball as kids?

Usually if you are still playing past age 12, it is some form of advanced competition. From what I remember, Rupp was an ODP player, Bayer, Symmonds and Jordanek played until their Jr year, Wheating switched at 17, Centro and Brown started HS as soccer players, Bumbie was a club player his Fr. year and Leer played throughout HS. Miller and Jager made the change after graduating middle school.

Most of the articles that mention the two sports, either talk about how it was difficult to switch sports or mentioned how soccer helped with their development.

Consider This wrote:

And here is when the ARs for mid distance were set

M800: 1999

M1500: 1983

W800: 1985

W1500: 2005

So I'm not sure that the top ten lists have really been "obliterated."

Not quite. You've got the men's and women's dates reversed.

Horst Girth wrote:

The 5K/10K events, heck I think they are middle distance too. Long middle distance.

From the 800 to 10,000, US runners are training harder and smarter.

Effective testing for EPO has diluted the pool of East African talent at the same range of distances.

The prize money in the half marathon and marathon distances have also diluted the world wide talent pool for the middle/long-middle track races.

Kenya and Ethiopia have as many great runners as ever, they are simply going for the long distance road racing money, and avoiding EPO.

Yeah, East Africans doped, but Americans didn´t. Is that why American T&F athletes have been busted the last decade, but not Africans?

South Eugene Rocks wrote:

Fish don't know they're in water.

Rojo, you nailed it with the internet. Having access to knowledge brings the depth up relative to the current upper limit. Not just the depth of mid-distance runners, but the depth of all human expression. As a famous man once said, "He will do things even greater than these..." So will we (or our descendants) end up transcending the current limitations of sport altogether as knowledge explodes with the convergence of man and machine. Once we are all cyborgs, I'd assume the entire world will be able to run sub 3:40, but I'm not sure anybody will be aware of it, like a fish in water.

The GNR revolution will change our world unimaginably fast, in a way that Axel and Slash changed mine in 5th grade!

Why, then, did America have greater depth in the marathon in the 1980s without internet?

well.. wrote:

Why, then, did America have greater depth in the marathon in the 1980s without internet?

Because more people were running marathons, and they were simply running more mileage. The connections from person to person were there in the sense that people knew what other successful people were doing, which was volume, (and potentially steroids and blood doping.) As the tide turned to the dark ages of the 90's what was thought to be scientific was in fact crap studies that were being misinterpreted.

Now the information is much easier to access and being fooled by bad advice is much more difficult.

We will never get slower again as a race.

The US is world power ?

Last 2 Olympics and 3 world Championships 3 silvers and a bronze,that is

world power ?

rojo wrote:

David Monti has written a good piece on this subject...

Ten years ago, Monti says only 6 american men were under 3:40 outdoors. Wow.

-Rojo

PS. I'll post a few thoughts later.

Upon further review of Monti's article, a few things should be noted.

1. He notes that 41 American men broke 3:40, "seven times the number in 2003". I understand he's a writer, but certainly he owns a calculator, yes? 41 is not evenly divisible by 7.

2. Kenya had 6 guys faster than the USA's fastest, Leo Manzano, who was 19th on the world list. Kenya also claimed 4 of the top 5 spots and 5 of the top 7. The USA's 5th man came in at the 33rd spot.

3. The US population is roughly 725% greater than Kenya. That gives Kenya the equivalent of 196 runners under 3:40, or about 43 guys ahead of the USA's first runner.

4. The US actually did better in the 5000, putting 3 in the top 18.

5. The 800 is where the US actually had a presence. This makes sense given the event is a good distance for the all-rounders that have more fast twitch than the true distance runners of the world, but not as much as the true sprinters.

6. Not trying to knock our guys, as it's great to see them competing, but Monti's stats are a little deceiving. If you want to talk about depth, I'd guess China technically has the most.

rojo wrote:

It sort of shocked me to realize how much faster the US is now than it was 10 years ago. The improvement in depth is amazing.

Here are the summary depth charts:

TOP LIST DATA BY COUNTRY

Men 800m - Nations sub-1:47.00

2013:

KEN 30 athletes

USA 20

MAR 8

ETH 5

CUB 4

GBR 4

GER 4

[total 120]

2003:

KEN 24 athletes

USA 10

RSA 6

FRA 5

GBR 5

ESP 4

MAR 4

RUS 4

Men 1500m - Nations sub-3:40

2013:

USA 41 athletes

KEN 27

MAR 16

ESP 9

ETH 9

GBR 8

AUS 7

ALG 6

2003:

KEN 29 athletes

ESP 11

FRA 7

MAR 6

USA 6

GBR 5

ALG 4

[114 total]

Women 800m - Nations sub-2:02.00

2013:

USA 17 athletes

RUS 16

KEN 9

CAN 6

MAR 5

UKR 5

[97 total]

2003:

RUS 17 athletes

USA 8

GBR 6

GER 4

UKR 4

[86 total]

Women 1500m - Nations sub-4:10

2013:

USA 23 athletes

RUS 12

KEN 11

ETH 10

GBR 8

MAR 6

CAN 4

[101 total]

2003:

RUS 12 athletes

USA 6

ESP 5

ETH 4

GBR 4

KEN 4

POL 4

UKR 4

[77 total]

South Eugene Rocks wrote:

Upon further review of Monti's article, a few things should be noted.

1. He notes that 41 American men broke 3:40, "seven times the number in 2003". I understand he's a writer, but certainly he owns a calculator, yes? 41 is not evenly divisible by 7.

USA went from 6 athletes sub-3:40 in 2003 to 41 in 2013, that is 6.83 times, which I rounded to 7.

--DFM

Rain Dog wrote:

-Drug testing has practically eliminated countries like Spain and Morrocco as MD powers on the men's side, and has cut into Russia's/E Bloc dominance on the women's. Possibly some effect on Kenya as well.

-Post-collegiate training groups throughout the nation. Even Seattle, which has never had a pro running group, now has a an up-and-comer, and it's in the MD category.

-The "Webb Effect". Look at HS times, especially depth, over the past 15 years, and it's like the U.S. of 1999 isn't even the same country as the U.S. of 2014. Of course, the internet is a major influence on this situation, as well as birth demographics.

As a lifelong MD fan, the past 20 years have been a real pleasure on the domestic side. I see no reason for it to subside anytime soon.

Talk about blinders. According to this post, there is a rational explanation of USA success that does not involve doping. However every other coountry owes its successs past or present to doping...Interesting

Consider This wrote:

rojo wrote:

I think the Internet has been huge.

Have the USA's dreams become reality?

Have to say that this surge has coincided with the growth of Letsrun.com.

not a sheep wrote:

do you understand the difference between top ten and top 1?

Of course. But if no one has broken the record it seems odd to say that top ten lists were "obliterated."

It also seems odd because the majority of the top ten times were run more than ten years ago, and some of the ones from the last ten years were by late-1990s runners (e.g. Jearl Miles Clark).

Maggie Vessey's 1:57:84 at Monaco in 2009 was the fastest time of the year if you disregard Caster Semenya.

Vessey and Willard (Pierce) were the dominate 800M runners in 2009.

I think that opened the flood gates for the 800/1500 American women. I remember reading quotes like, "If Maggie Vessey can do it so can I."

After years of injuries she teamed up with a Santa Cruz coach (Greg Brock) and dropped her PR from 2:03 (I believe) to 1:57:84 over 2-3 years. That had to inspire other women who were hovering just above two minutes.

Coach John Cook training methods were a major contribution to the new outlook, believe, and what was possible internationally...... Cook coached Erin Donohue and Shannon Rowbury with success in the middle distances....and everyone was watching and paying attention!....

on the men's side...Leo Manzano

at the time I can remember the excitement of what he was doing! Now you see NOP and other training groups all doing it

David Monti. wrote:

South Eugene Rocks wrote:

Upon further review of Monti's article, a few things should be noted.

1. He notes that 41 American men broke 3:40, "seven times the number in 2003". I understand he's a writer, but certainly he owns a calculator, yes? 41 is not evenly divisible by 7.

USA went from 6 athletes sub-3:40 in 2003 to 41 in 2013, that is 6.83 times, which I rounded to 7.

--DFM

Fair enough; most people aren't anal about numbers. Looking at the tables, the USofA is clearly deeper now than 10 years ago, but still irrelevant at the top, unfortunately.

Interestingly, Lagat is on the Kenya sub 3:40 list in 2003 and the US sub 3:40 list in 2013.

Consider This wrote:

honestyyy wrote:

The US may have gotten a bit deeper but the medal success probably has much to do with the lack of Africans and Europeans nowadays too.

Please tell me you aren't suggesting that they've all turned to the marathon.

Second the first guy. The foreigners are chasing the money on the roads, with less money on the track. There was another article a few days ago about the lack of money on the track right now, with large appearance fees going to only the cream of the crop. Hence, it's easier for Americans to have "success" on the track with less foreigners, which fuels more pursuing it (=more depth).

Ironically, now there's road races cutting prize money/support, so maybe that will cut down the foreigners in the next 10 yrs, and we'll see an American boom on the roads like 30+ yrs ago.