like others I think Pre would have moved up to the 10,000. I think he would have medaled, pushing the pace late in the race and dropping all but 1 or possibly 2.
like others I think Pre would have moved up to the 10,000. I think he would have medaled, pushing the pace late in the race and dropping all but 1 or possibly 2.
The '76 race is very interesting from a 2013 perspective... looks so much like a Farah race. Viren's clearly superior but not by as much as (say) Bekele in his day--it's the combination of speed and perfect positioning at the bell that does it.
Pre probably wouldn't have medaled in the 5000, but almost certainly would have in the 10,000.
ryan foreman wrote:
First of all, I question if that is right. I have Prefontaine Mile PB at 3:54 and change. Quax was 3:56 as of 76'. That is just from a google search. Quax had a little better 1500M PB than Pre but not by much.
Secondly, Shorter said in an interview that he thought Prefontaine had more speed than people give him credit for and should have had more faith in it in championship races.
That said, it was an impressively fast final lap in that 5000M race for that era.
Bottom line. I do think Pre would have run a much smarter race than in 72'. Basically no wild surges and he would have had a lot in the tank in the final lap.
I think he would have been in the mix with that Top 4 or 5 group but realistically would not have beaten Viren. Which is to say that it would have been a close shave between silver and no medal at all.
This is the correct answer. Pre had better closing speed than most gave him credit for.
The problem with this discussion is that people see the '72 race and conclude that Pre would have run the same with the same pre-race strategy, aka run the last mile hard. No one wants to admit that Pre ran a tactically stupid race in Munich, and wasted precious energy with ridiculous moves in that last 600.
In '76 Pre would have been both smarter and having a faster mile pr. He would have battled Viren for that pole position in the last 3 laps, thus that last mile would have been even faster - it would have been no suprised if Viren and Pre gapped the field in that last mile. Maybe Viren, maybe Hildy would have beaten him, but I doubt Quax or Dixon would have been able to handle that last mile and still have their "vaunted" kicks.
Looking at the races, I'd give Pre a bronze or maybe silver in the 10K for '76.
Pre wouldn't medal at any major championship. We sucked at distance running back then. Also his race tactics were terrible.
Great thread, but if your doing hypotheticals better add Yifter (boycott) and Liquori (injured -ranked #1 in world in 1977). My guess is Viren would have won the 5,000 regardless of who was in the race. Liquori and Dixon were fairly equal during 1975-1977 (they were 2-2 in head to head competition) . Quax and Hildeenbrand barley missed Putteman's world record a few weeks before Montreal.
How would Shorter and Pre have done in Montreal 10,000 ? Remember Shorter was ranked #2 in world in 10,000 in 1975. He ran 27;46 and barley lost to Foster in that race. Shorter had qualified for 10,000 but bypassed it to concentrate on marathon. Foster clearly was not in his 74 & 75 form , but managed a bronze.
Again, Viren was in a league by himself, but I think Shorter would have gotten bronze behind Lopes.
As far as Pre goes I have him 5th in both the 5,000 and 10,000.
Prefontaine would have been much faster over 5000 than he was before he died and that in turn could have been a major difference. To those who are saying Pre would have ran smarter by not performing wild surges, He was a FRONTRUNNER and knows his mistake in the 1972 games was not making sure it was fast from the gun. Either that or he would have made the pace harder and harder as the race went on. It would not have been a true kickers race with Prefontaine on the line.
1976 was in the hay day of the government sponsored doping programs, except the US government didn't sponsor shit. Pre would have been the best clean runner. But the medals would have gone to someone else.
What i remember was Lopes leading and Viren stalking him. So Pre probably would have been in that mix. The question is whether he would have waited like Viren to kick or gone earlier to force the pace? I have always felt that he would not have waited. I think the last 800 would have been around 2 flat.
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=reqJQQgGw5A&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DreqJQQgGw5A
Looking at the races, I'd give Pre a bronze or maybe silver in the 10K for '76.
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I agree that Pre would have probably doubled in the 5K and 10K in Montreal and won a medal in the 10. He had been doing some altitude training with Frank Shorter in Colorado and New Mexico in order to improve his endurance.
Yifter
ukathleticscoach wrote:
Yifter
2 gold, viren 4.....
In retrospect, the 10k played out in a fashion that would have favored Pre getting a medal. The African boycott had taken away Yifter and several other good runners. In the race itself, Lopes and Viren broke away from the pack (Lopes doing the work, Viren on his shoulder until the last lap) leaving everyone else to run for bronze. If Pre had been there, I cannot imagine he would have let Lopes and Viren run away alone -- it would've become a three man break, and Pre may have tried to surge with 1500-2000 to go. I think it would've been a good setup for a medal.
That said, there was probably no way for him to know ahead of time that the Africans would boycott (I think the happened at the last minute -- some teams had arrived in Montreal and then had to turn around and leave) or that Brendan Foster (if understand this correctly) would not be at full strength -- Foster hung on for bronze, but normally I think he would've stayed with the lead group.
Given that he had run sub-27:45 near-solo in his first serious effort, and very few others had run that fast, I think moving to 10k would have been sensible. But who knows what Pre would've considered sensible.
Of course, if he had tried to double, the 10k was run first (though back then they had heats for the 10k as well as the 5k -- so anyone doubling had 30k of track racing to do)
Excellent points about Yifter and Liquori. If you're adding guys who weren't there to the '76 5,000 think either of them is at least as interesting a hypothetical if not more than Prefontaine. I think my money would be on Yifter but can't recall what he was doing before 1977.
I think the whole "Pre was a frontrunner" idea is way overstated. He was a frontrunner in a lot of college races because he could and wanted to give the crowd a show. He was that dominant. In some shorter mile races it probably was advisable for him to front run. But there were some races where he didn't front run. Check out this video from the 1970 NCAA 3 mile:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEoFi6fHSvsPre was a smart runner. Problem is, the famous race he is most known for is the one race where he abandoned his race plan and just ran plain stupidly. It doesn't do any help when Pre fans ignore his racing intelligence and laud him for his courage and desire to leave it all on the track.
RunWild wrote:
Prefontaine would have been much faster over 5000 than he was before he died and that in turn could have been a major difference. To those who are saying Pre would have ran smarter by not performing wild surges, He was a FRONTRUNNER and knows his mistake in the 1972 games was not making sure it was fast from the gun. Either that or he would have made the pace harder and harder as the race went on. It would not have been a true kickers race with Prefontaine on the line.
uh, Viren was a well-known pioneer of blood-doping.
google Lasse Viren and blood-doping and see 1000s of sites.
I'm sure he was also on testosterone just like most scandinavian runners since Paavo Nurmi did it in the 1920s - google that too.
Drug-cheating is universal in the West. Unfort, it is increasingly common in Africa too.
In the 5k he would have been one of 6 or so guys in the running for medals. Would he have been a favorite? Nope. A contender yes. Who knows what would have happened with one more guy willing to put a hard move 1200-2k from home. In the 10k, you would have had to like his chances as he was probably faster than every one but Viren if they had to kick over 400ms and he would have had the strength/stamina to go with Lopes. Of course all of this assumes he could have stayed healthy. He easily could have pulled a Liquori and missed the games.
HRE wrote:
Maybe if he'd moved to the 10,000. I don't think he could have done it at the 5,000. Quax and Dixon both had faster 5,000 and mile times than he did so it's unlikely he could have run away from them at the front or have outkicked them. And as Dixon couldn't beat Hidebrandt and none of them could beat Viren it seems unlikely that he'd have gotten a medal. But you never know.
Add Henry Rono to that list.
[quote]ryan foreman wrote:
I think the whole "Pre was a frontrunner" idea is way overstated. He was a frontrunner in a lot of college races because he could and wanted to give the crowd a show. He was that dominant. In some shorter mile races it probably was advisable for him to front run. But there were some races where he didn't front run. Check out this video from the 1970 NCAA 3 mile:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEoFi6fHSvs
Good point. I was around then but,not being American, I did not follow his races in detail, can someone name examples where he front-ran in races outside the US?
Also, as we all know, a fast mile time does not necessarily mean a 'kicker'. Despite similar mile times, I would still bet on Quax or Dixon over Pre with 100 to go....