MARY CAIN - 4:04 FROM LANE 2 THE WHOLE WAY!!!!

There is no reason to expect that the tactics that Mo uses to win a 10,000 against lesser runners would be optimal to get Mary into the 1500 final against equal or better runners.

Mo is the best in the world by a lot. He *can* make moves like that, as needed, without killing himself, to get himself to the front when he needs to be there.

Also, there is much more opportunity to make moves when running at 10,000 meter pace/effort for ~27 minutes than when running at 1500 pace/effort for ~4 minutes.

I think she did what she needed to do. How many times have we seen Webb get boxed in or be in the wrong position and miss an opportunity. Cain was smart to be out of trouble even if it means running outside a bit.

I suspect the goal was to stay out of trouble and advance. She did that.

Mo Farah is a master tactician . . . and he's thirty years old. Cain has had so few races of the highest caliber and she's so young, that even if by nature she has a tactical sense, the intuition that comes from experience does not yet exist. However, in the right race (by which I mean a fast pace in which the actions of the other women leave her in a good position), she looks as if she's ready for high 4:02s or low 4:03s. With luck, the right race will fall her way in the finals.

tell me stories wrote:

Are you people serious? I stay as far away from the inside of lane 1 as possible.

Outside of lane 1/inside of lane 2 is the best place to be.

Agree. This is true for most racers but especially for a youngster on the world stage for the first time. She's a crazy talent but she doesn't need to get stuck on the rail in a WC heat. She doesn't have the experience to mix it up with veteran racers. Too much risk of going down or getting boxed.

cain FTW wrote:

She is the best 1515 meter runner in the world!

Scary how fast she will be in a time trial! 3:57?

15 meters = 7 seconds ????

cain FTW wrote:

She is the best 1515 meter runner in the world!

Scary how fast she will be in a time trial! 3:57?

Jabdbe wrote:

15 meters = 7 seconds ????

That's essentially the type of exaggerations I was trying to help people avoid a bit earlier. While I definitely think that Cain has amazing potential, the inhabitants of the LRC boards often tend to get carried away with the hype. For example, how many of you remember the following discussion from four years ago?

That was from early 2009, and we are still waiting!

Charlie Freak wrote:

tell me stories wrote:

Are you people serious? I stay as far away from the inside of lane 1 as possible.

Outside of lane 1/inside of lane 2 is the best place to be.

Agree. This is true for most racers but especially for a youngster on the world stage for the first time. She's a crazy talent but she doesn't need to get stuck on the rail in a WC heat. She doesn't have the experience to mix it up with veteran racers. Too much risk of going down or getting boxed.

In Peter Coe's book, he said that the outside of lane 1 was the best position. It made it harder the person behind you to pass, and if/when they did, you would be able to react quicker.

Riding the rail in a championship race with a large pack is horrible tactics. Come on guys, you should know better.

so...let's say in the final she settles into a bernard lagat-like 3rd place on the rail for meters 300-1200...how does she not medal? She can outkick everyone except maybe aregawi.

I think she was really trying to get to the rail near the front but she didn't count on the pace being so fast fast fast - she smartly decided not to run 61 for lap 1 but then she got stranded.

alls I know is that I can't concentrate for anything right now after her semi - that was thrilling.

And what if it's a slow pace, then what?

agip wrote:

so...let's say in the final she settles into a bernard lagat-like 3rd place on the rail for meters 300-1200...how does she not medal? She can outkick everyone except maybe aregawi.

I think she was really trying to get to the rail near the front but she didn't count on the pace being so fast fast fast - she smartly decided not to run 61 for lap 1 but then she got stranded.

alls I know is that I can't concentrate for anything right now after her semi - that was thrilling.

agip wrote:

so...let's say in the final she settles into a bernard lagat-like 3rd place on the rail for meters 300-1200...how does she not medal? She can outkick everyone except maybe aregawi.

I think she was really trying to get to the rail near the front but she didn't count on the pace being so fast fast fast - she smartly decided not to run 61 for lap 1 but then she got stranded.

alls I know is that I can't concentrate for anything right now after her semi - that was thrilling.

How does she not medal you ask? If you watch many championship races, somebody can be toward the front of the field on the rial, and at any single moment (usually at the bell), they can be passed by half the field. You have to be in a position to react to moves like that, and the rail is one of the worst places to do that.

I agree Cain's tactics don't look good, but in the rounds the first 3 laps are supposed to be slow enough that nothing really matters, you just want to stay out of trouble and be in position with about 300 to go. If you are a marginal athlete and just looking to run a PB at the WCs, I guess not wasting energy and staying in lane one is advisable, but I am sure the goal for Cain was to make the finals and her tactics worked good for that. If that race was on a sub-4 pace from the gun, Cain would have been on the rail.

The Animal Within wrote:

Riding the rail in a championship race with a large pack is horrible tactics. Come on guys, you should know better.

Correct.

I think she ran very smart , stayed near the front , out of trouble , could watch the field the entire time. Many elites use this tactic , smart for her not to get caught on the rail and have to go out the back swing around to get a position.

kiprop, on the rail at 1100, wins daegu 1500

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKWxxVhL5kg

kamel, on rail at 1100 wins berlin 1500

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydUYRRQQlSA

ramzi, 2005 world champs 1500, on rail at 1100, wins

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=abxUL7zz1nI

it may be the worst...or maybe it is the best. You decide.

The Animal Within wrote:

Riding the rail in a championship race with a large pack is horrible tactics. Come on guys, you should know better.

^^^^^THIS

although you may argue fairly that there was not a large pack at 1100 in any of those races.

___

I just went through the last few championship 1500s and the winner was almost invariably on the rail at the bell.

agip wrote:

although you may argue fairly that there was not a large pack at 1100 in any of those races.

Exactly.

This may not be the best example, being that it's a 5000 and Rupp not being on the the rail, but the move with 400 to go perfectly shows how the race changes very quickly. Watch Rupp go from second to eighth in the matter of 30 meters