Haile reveals Bekele´s tactics

Found the thread I was looking for.

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=4658372

manbearpig wrote:

I have seen Farah and Rupp finish races the last two years. They have both been able to run very fast last laps.

Bekele has been out kicked this year at least once pretty handily. Bekele's best days may be 7-8 years in the past. He is not the 26:20 guy. He is a 26:43 guy. He will not be able to get away. And when the bell rings for the last lap, there are two guys ready to run a 52 second final lap with him being in the crosshairs.

I just dont see Bekele winning this race. Besides Rupp and Farah, he has to deal with the Kenyans along with two fellow countrymen. Just too much against him this time.

You mean something like this?

Yeah, you're right. In a 26:40ish race Rupp kicks so hard that Bekele isn't even in the picture when Rupp finishes.

Good point.

"Rupp is the best athlete here by far, he wasnt born at altitude with the unfair advantage of the africans but he has worked harder than any white man and probably african to compete with them at this level.well done rupp, good luck at the olympics mate"Did you see that comment on the video? Had to be someone from LRC.

He was a stride behind KB and Kipchoge with a lap to go and KB and Kipchoge closed in 56:xx while finishing 5 seconds in front of Rupp..So he ran like 61 or 62 for his "kick".

Kenny will have two other Ethiopians helping with the pace for 5, 6, 7,8k ?

Then he can take it from there.

So a 52 last lap after running 26:40 pace?

So that's 25:36 (64 pace) with 400 to go. A 52 last lap off that pace is 26:28 final time. Is that you prediction for Rupp?

Can't we all just hope for a 3-5 man photo finish? That would set back the event as a major interest thing for the next four years, all the way up to Rio 2016, maybe even with several Diamond League races every year.

But if Bekele (or Farah) throws another one of those 50 meter wins on the last lap, then the 10000 is basically dead, 'cept for Jelians possible comeback at Worlds next year, and we'll only see one single gathering of the best in 2013 and one in 2015 before the next Olympics.

that is a few years ago. Can probably not crack 3:40 now.

true north s&f wrote:

You're all forgetting Cam Levins' closing speed. All the big boys had better watch out.

He closed in 60 in a 27:27 race. The Olympics will be faster than that. Do the math.

Why would Galen Rupp be worried? He has run faster than Kenenisa Bekele over the last couple of years.

You're right-- there will be no 52 second last lap if it's run at a decent pace.

Im pretty sure it was either 55 or 58. but i do agree that he probably won't be up there. but I wouldnt put a big fitness jump past a 150mpw man.

rupple stiltskin wrote:

true north s&f wrote:

You're all forgetting Cam Levins' closing speed. All the big boys had better watch out.

He closed in 60 in a 27:27 race. The Olympics will be faster than that. Do the math.

Wrong. It was 55.

Bosl wrote:

Why would Galen Rupp be worried? He has run faster than Kenenisa Bekele over the last couple of years.

You're right of course. 26:48 is obviously faster than 26:43.

Jump to 12:30 and see what happens to our boy when the pace picks up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TkoPeM-5S7s

Saying under 26:40 is not revealing tactics.

Is Kenenisa going to go out and push it?

Is he sending Tariku?

Is Geb Geb going to push it?

Is KB taking over with 4 laps to go? 2 laps to go? 1 lap?

Bill Haverchuck wrote:

Jump to 12:30 and see what happens to our boy when the pace picks up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TkoPeM-5S7s

Everyone on here is so jaded. Don't even bother bringing up Daegu if you're going to talk about Rupp, because it's been almost one year since then, and a lot has changed.

Should I post a link to the 1500 final in Daegu and say that Centro is going to have that kick this summer in the Olympics???

Seriously, guys, don't compare the Bekele of today to the Bekele of the past, and don't do the same thing with Rupp. Bekele is obviously a better racer, more experienced, and far more decorated, but to ignore the strides that Rupp has made in the last year or two is to be completely arrogant and ignorant. Putt the Rupp of this year back in that 5000 final of Daegu, and that last lap would have gone differently. He, at the very least, would have been in the hunt for a medal.

I'm not saying Rupp is going to close in a 52 (why 52? why is it always that arbitrary number?), but I wouldn't put it past him. I like Bekele a lot, but his kick is fading - the question is, has his kick faded to the point that Rupp can kick with him, or even past him? I don't know. We won't know until a few days from now.

But if it's a sit and kick race, I'd be hard pressed to count Rupp out of a medal. If it's an honest, 26:40 type race, I'd be even more excited to see who separates into the lead pack of 4 to 5 guys.

Bekele is so doped up it's absurd.

Rupp has shown a world class kick when the pace has been above 27. Every race he has been in where the pace has been close to or below 27, he has not been able to match the kick of the E. Africans. Rupp has demostrably improved since those races, but is still unproven as a kicker in a sub 27 race.

In the cool temps in London, and absent a wet track, look for 26:50 to be the pace needed to win. 54-53 last lap will be needed to seal the deal. Rupp has the potential to be there, but so do seven other runners.