A 5000m and 10000m Reality Check

Excellent post, thank you.

Good post. The only thing I'll add is that it is not always the last 400m that tells the story..sometimes it is the last 2000m (Bekele) Bejing or sometimes the last 150 or 200m (Lagat) Osaka

asldkfjadkj wrote:

5000m:

Winner: Mo Farah

Final Lap: 52.61

Final Time: 13:23.36

Comments: Final time reasonable, though fast last lap. Lagat and Gebremeskel close behind.

Wow so Rupp pretty much ran exactly the exact same race as Farah when he won the 5k last year!

All of the runners in the examples you site are African born. Just saying.

Africans use the base-10 system, just like the rest of the world.

proofnodoubt wrote:

All of the runners in the examples you site are African born. Just saying.

This is like saying nothing.

No other countries with lots of caucasians(sp) has an Oregon Project -- or any other kind of support system.

Times are changing a little bit.

My pleasure. I felt compelled to do it as these claims were thrown around increasingly often. Intelligent speculation is great discussion fodder, and I just think these misguided or flat out wrong "analyses" detract from it.

Good analysis. I imagine in many of those races the 2nd and 3rd place guys were running more like 56+ (not all the races but many)

makes sense to me....but it won't for the Haters

proofnodoubt wrote:

All of the runners in the examples you site are African born. Just saying.

Oh right, good point. Bekele running 53.5 would obviously be worth something different than if Rupp runs 53.5.

You do realize that those races were run with ridiculous negative splits and rupp ran a fairly even split race last night. Some of those kicks were after some huge surges and dawdling early laps. Tadesse threw in some sub 60 laps in there well before the kickers started kicking. Don't fool yourself the Olympic games are going to be much more cut throat than Rupp Lopez and Kip running in the front without any real move made until 400 to go. Rupp is an equal among Olympians while at the trials everyone clearly respected what the leaders were doing. There will be several guys in the games who could have easily beat Rupp at the trials. I do believe Rupp can medal but it is going to take the best possible race of his life to do it and even then he needs some serious luck.

You didn't prove anything. As I mentioned in another thread EL's 52.9 was not an all out 400 like Rupps was. He could have closed in 50 flat. You need to actually watch the races to know what you're talking about. Being able to close in 52 is not enough in similar conditions to last night most years. Weather, laps before the last, and when the real kick starts matter. EL G blazed the last 150 in that win going out to lane 2. You can see the huge difference in effort compared to Rupp for the first 250 of that last lap.

He proved exactly what he said he'd prove: that very often, "closing in 52 off of sub 13 pace" does NOT happen. In fact, if you interpreted that literally, it would mean someone ALREADY running sub 13 pace, THEN kicking a 52. That has never to my knowledge happened in a championship race.

But to your point, it is true that you can't capture the whole race by looking at the last 400 and the overall time. I would also point out that, while it's tempting to compare Rupp's finish to the world champs last year, you also need to account for all of the other races out there that resulted in similar finishes, but were won by someone who was never a factor in a major race.

For example, if I recall correctly, Teg and Solinsky closed the 2009 USA 5k in 53 to hit 13:20. So 0.5-1 seconds slower on the last lap, 2 seconds faster overall. I do think Rupp is better now than they were then, but it HAS been done before.

Average close in the 10K was 54.17 seconds

Average close in the 5k was 53.27 seconds.

Average 10k finish was 27:03.24

Average 5k finish was 13:21.85

In Rupp's 10k, his last lap was 60.9, and finished in 26:48 in a race with Kipchoge, Bekele, and Rotich. He was 25:47.1 at the bell, which is 26:51.56 pace.

Basically, IF the 10K race in London is sub 27, he will have a very difficult time medalling--as his kick is about 6.73 seconds slower than the average of 54.17 (and that average was with a 27:03 average finish time).

It is not "he has no chance," but it will be difficult.

That as Last Years kick.

This years kick we don't know about yet.

Thanks, glad I didn't have to post this myself.

Mrr82, I don't think I disagree with most of your points. I think that the dynamics of races extend far beyond how fast the last lap is. This was simply analyzing a frequently held opinion that can be convincingly demonstrated to be false.

You can make any number of arguments on how Rupp's fitness compares to the past champions and medalists. You could argue he's peaking early, or that he doesn't have the smooth change of gears required to match the often volatile pace of championship finals. I don't agree with these, but I don't have to agree with everything - all I am looking for is arguments to be based in fact. And if one contends that 52-53 closing speed off of a sub 13/sub 27 pace is a requisite for MEDALIST territory, then he is quite mistaken.

Your analysis shows that, save for 2-3 posters, the LRC crowd

doesn't much about distance running. They are distant followers.

Your silly little post shows how little you know, when will understand its about what happens before you get to the last lap. Yes Bekele did run only 53.42 last lap in Beijing but you failed to understand his last 2k was 4:55!!!!

Sorry to break it to you but Galen rupp nor Mo Farah will touch Bekele

If you are still failing to understand my point, then have a look at the 2003 World Championshop 10k where Bekele ran his last 5k in 12:57 he closed his last 5k harder than Rupp's lifetime best in an open 5k not to mention he closed his last 200 in 26 low

The African don't respect him but he might beat them