A 5000m and 10000m Reality Check

Your reading comprehension seems to be poor. Not only did you totally misunderstand the point I made in the first place, but If you'd actually read the thread, you'd see Mrr82 already made the point you did. You'd then see that I responded to that, and clarified my initial assertion.

To avoid repetition here, I'll just refer you to that post. Please read the thread more carefully before you respond with such a condescending attitude.

because bekele is totally the same runner that he was NINE YEARS AGO

It is not so much the last lap that will kill rupp--it is being able to BE THERE and be FRESH. Several years ago Rupp couldn't even stay with the leaders. In the last few years, Rupp can stay with the leaders, but is redlining to do so and therefore could not kick hard. Now...could he finally be ready?

lezbehonest wrote:

Your silly little post shows how little you know, when will understand its about what happens before you get to the last lap. Yes Bekele did run only 53.42 last lap in Beijing but you failed to understand his last 2k was 4:55!!!!

Sorry to break it to you but Galen rupp nor Mo Farah will touch Bekele

If you are still failing to understand my point, then have a look at the 2003 World Championshop 10k where Bekele ran his last 5k in 12:57 he closed his last 5k harder than Rupp's lifetime best in an open 5k not to mention he closed his last 200 in 26 low

Sure, not Farah, nor Rupp, nor anyone else could touch Bekele of 2003 or 2008. But that guy isn't running at London 2012. Heck Rupp and Farah both beat Bekele earlier this month. That's not to say he won't beat them in London, but no way Bekele loses that Pre race if he's in the kind of form he had in 2008.

reading 101 wrote:

Average close in the 10K was 54.17 seconds

Average close in the 5k was 53.27 seconds.

Average 10k finish was 27:03.24

Average 5k finish was 13:21.85

In Rupp's 10k, his last lap was 60.9, and finished in 26:48 in a race with Kipchoge, Bekele, and Rotich. He was 25:47.1 at the bell, which is 26:51.56 pace.

Basically, IF the 10K race in London is sub 27, he will have a very difficult time medalling--as his kick is about 6.73 seconds slower than the average of 54.17 (and that average was with a 27:03 average finish time).

It is not "he has no chance," but it will be difficult.

How many championship races have ever gone sub-27? I know of one (2009 Worlds), but can't think of another one. If the race is like 2009 Worlds, whether Rupp medals won't have anything to do with a kick. He could finish 3rd in a race like that by hanging on longer than the pack.

By the way, with your logic above, Bekele's kick should be measured off what he did when he ran the WR. Trust me, he didn't close in 53 in that race.

First, thanks for all the work you put into this: your efforts are surely informative. But one thing that needs to be added, that supports your general point, is that Bekele himself is an outlier--the greatest distance runner ever. That he was able at one point in his career to close at certain speeds, doesn't mean he can do so now, much less than others can emulate that speed. I'd be interested if we take Bekele out of the equation, what the closing 400 looks like. So, as one poster indicated, last year's World Championship 5000 looks, in many respects, strikingly similar to this year's Trials 5000. But let me make the point another way. If one can close in the 52s in a slow 5000, in the 54s in a fast 5000, in the 54s in a slow 10000, and in the 56s for a fast 10000, one has a chance to medal and perhaps even win.

asldkfjadkj wrote:

Your reading comprehension seems to be poor. Not only did you totally misunderstand the point I made in the first place, but If you'd actually read the thread, you'd see Mrr82 already made the point you did. You'd then see that I responded to that, and clarified my initial assertion.

To avoid repetition here, I'll just refer you to that post. Please read the thread more carefully before you respond with such a condescending attitude.

Great addition, thanks. Indeed, I haven't emphasized enough that most of these results come from King Kenenisa Bekele - considered by many to be the greatest of ALL TIME! If you do look into remaining medalists, there is often a different (and encouraging) story told - you don't need to be the best of all time to grab a medal. You have to be exceptional, and I think few people disagree that a number of our (America's) athletes have moved into that territory, Galen Rupp being one of them. This thread is meant to make a general point though, of course.

Clifford R. Clavin wrote:

Good post. The only thing I'll add is that it is not always the last 400m that tells the story..sometimes it is the last 2000m (Bekele) Bejing or sometimes the last 150 or 200m (Lagat) Osaka

Also you are ignoring the conditions which are not normally ideal ie hot & humid

grizz wrote:

Except no one is saying Rupp will definitely win/beat Bekele- only that Rupp's abilities have shown he has one of the men who is a threat to take him A medal.

Which one of "the men" does he have, and which medal will they be taking him?

That should read take HOME A (as opposed to "THE") medal. My apologies for the typo.

Dammit, he IS one of the men. . . don't know what the hell I was typing in my original post. Apologies again. I think I was writing "he has the tools" and "he's one of the men" and wrote half of both. Dammit, brain!

Rupp's splits being so similar to WC's last year is one thing, but quite another is that in doing so he took the scalp of the silver medalist in that race, who was the World Indoor champ this past winter, and who looked very good at Icahn a month ago. Even if he was only "90%", Lagat is a good yardstick.

Lomong's non-factor in the final 200 only buttresses.

I agree with Quenton. In a race where Bekele finishes in 52.5 Rupp finishes in 56. The why was explained in someone's earlier post. In a race with negative splits or when the leaders finish with close to a 4 minute mile in the 5K it will come down to a Kenyan or an Ethiopian for the gold. (Maybe a Somalian now GB or a Kenyan now US as wel)

At Pre, Rupp actually did beat Bekele in a fast 5000. At the Trials, Rupp actually did beat that "Kenyan now US" in a slow 5000. Holy mackerel! It boggles my mind how certain you are that Rupp can't win either the 10 or 5. By my lights, any guy who has run 26:48, 12:58, 3:34, and just beat Lagat finishing in 52 has a chance to win.

nn wrote:

I agree with Quenton. In a race where Bekele finishes in 52.5 Rupp finishes in 56. The why was explained in someone's earlier post. In a race with negative splits or when the leaders finish with close to a 4 minute mile in the 5K it will come down to a Kenyan or an Ethiopian for the gold. (Maybe a Somalian now GB or a Kenyan now US as wel)

Point taken. I'll add that to date Rupp hasn't been battle tested at the World Champs or Olympic Games. Rupp's times indicate potential, but on the day with the medals on the line can he pull off a medal on the big stage? The top Kenyans and Ethiopians seem to be able to run quick times even when they don't have their best race. They have put it on the line in Diamond League and have had a rough go to just make their national team. I like Rupp and wish him well. I also believe even within his own camp his advisors are counselling him along the lines above. He'll be facing proven competitors on the big stage and these runners will do what it takes to run the kick out of the others. This could be a 5 minute last 2 km or a 1:52 last 800m.

I agree, Rupp has to show he has the poise and moxie to succeed in the biggest games (which curiously Ritz has shown he has, witness two World medals), but I do have one caveat. Not all the Kenyans and Ethiopians hit it out of the park at Worlds and the Olympics. But collectively they have six strikes with which to work.

nn wrote:

Point taken. I'll add that to date Rupp hasn't been battle tested at the World Champs or Olympic Games. Rupp's times indicate potential, but on the day with the medals on the line can he pull off a medal on the big stage? The top Kenyans and Ethiopians seem to be able to run quick times even when they don't have their best race. They have put it on the line in Diamond League and have had a rough go to just make their national team. I like Rupp and wish him well. I also believe even within his own camp his advisors are counselling him along the lines above. He'll be facing proven competitors on the big stage and these runners will do what it takes to run the kick out of the others. This could be a 5 minute last 2 km or a 1:52 last 800m.

I hope Rupp peaks at the right time, and has the race of his life in the final of the 5km. I hope he is prepared to negative split, drop a 52 last lap, and withstand whatever team tactics the Kenyans and Ethiopians may throw at him.

make this red hot for all the morons out there.

nn wrote:

I agree with Quenton. In a race where Bekele finishes in 52.5 Rupp finishes in 56. The why was explained in someone's earlier post. In a race with negative splits or when the leaders finish with close to a 4 minute mile in the 5K it will come down to a Kenyan or an Ethiopian for the gold. (Maybe a Somalian now GB or a Kenyan now US as wel)

Funny how this works out... turns out rupp beat all the kenyans and ethiopians.