Can Kiprop or Kiplagat break the 1500m WR?

Menace · 2012-05-20T17:54:57-04:00

They seem to have the talent to do so. Thoughts anyone?

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14 years ago 05/21/2012 4:15pm EDT

re: ventolin^3

ventolin^3 wrote:
both are good for mid-3'28 now
3'29.6 off a veritable jog to 1200 of 2'50.4 ( 3'33 pace ) shows silas had helluva lot in the tank in last 300
2'48.0 - 2'48.5 & he wouda got mid-3'28
asbel's run was even more impressive as just 0.1s behind & a knock in stretch which couda cost him upto 0.5s loss
mid-3'28 shape in mid-May is damn impressive

I think your being a little optimistic. Kiplagat's first 3 laps while not super fast, was hardly a "jog", and was very evenly paced with 56.5, 57.1 (1:53.6) & 56.8 (2:50.4). Yes the last 300 was v. impressive with a 39.2, but he was eyeballs out trying to beat Kiprop.

I thought you'd already calculated that due to the fast last 300 it was worth an evened out 3:29.1? Where does the extra 0.6 come from?

Surely a 2:48.0 (3 laps of 56.0) would have been followed by a 41.1 based on the worked out evened out time?

I also don't think Kiprop's stumble cost him 0.5. It happened just before the last 100m, which he covered in 12.8 (26.1 last 200m), already exceptional at this pace. He certainly wouldn't have run 12.3. Maybe 12.6.

And what on earth do you make of Kiprop's run in Shanghai?

7th in 1:47.97 after going through 400 in around 51.5!? It wasn't a particularly great field, and he was rested for a week. While I didn't exactly expect him to win against 800 specialists, I certainly would have expected a much faster time and more impressive performance. That wasn't the form of a 3:29 1500 guy!!?

14 years ago 05/21/2012 4:19pm EDT

re: *

* wrote:
deanouk wrote:
I think it will last another 10-15 years.
What happens in 10-15 years that makes it any more likelier than now or in a few years?
I know what you mean. The record is way beyond the current competition.
I thought Butch Reynold's 43.29 for 400m would last as a record for 20 years but it only lasted 11 years.
Although, 24 years later it is the second fastest time ever.
When Sotomayor jumped 8 feet in 1989, after Sjoberg jumped 7'11", I though there would be a number of athletes getting 8 feet after this break through.
No one else has jumped 8 feet some 20 years later.
Just don't know what's going to happen.

Yes, you're right. My prediction is mainly based on my own belief that the 3:26.0 was enhanced somewhat. I don't believe a 3:26.0 is possible currently without some assisstance. I know many will disagree and that's fine. I just don't believe it personally.

14 years ago 05/21/2012 5:14pm EDT

re: deanouk

deanouk wrote:
...Yes, you're right. My prediction is mainly based on my own belief that the 3:26.0 was enhanced somewhat. I don't believe a 3:26.0 is possible currently without some assisstance. I know many will disagree and that's fine. I just don't believe it personally.

Me either. I think we are seeing much "cleaner" times right now. Not to say that there isn't something being used, just not as audaciously or as effective as they were in the 90s (well, maybe in the marathon).

14 years ago 05/21/2012 5:19pm EDT

re: deanouk

deanouk wrote:I think your being a little optimistic. Kiplagat's first 3 laps while not super fast, was hardly a "jog", and was very evenly paced with 56.5, 57.1 (1:53.6) & 56.8 (2:50.4)

3'33 pace at 1200 is a jog for these guys

Yes the last 300 was v. impressive with a 39.2, but he was eyeballs out trying to beat Kiprop

he was near/at maximum for the 300 - asbel clearly wasn't with that stumble

I thought you'd already calculated that due to the fast last 300 it was worth an evened out 3:29.1?

yes

Where does the extra 0.6 come from?

from the observation all the stored energy for 1100/1200m can't bring your time back to theoretical fastest in just 300/400m

a 48s guy with 3'30 ability can pass the bell in slow, tactical race in 2'45 ( 3'45 pace )

to get 3'30 off that 2'45 woud need last lap of

48.76s for 3'33.76

which is not possible as 48s is his open 400

or more extreme, 2'50 at bell ( 3'51 pace ) ->

46.86s for 3'36.86

running slow times to 1100 or 1200 with fast last 400 or 300s still won't get you to your theoretical even-pace limit from the gun ( 3'30 ) as you are limited by your finite 400 or 300 speed

Surely a 2:48.0 (3 laps of 56.0) would have been followed by a 41.1 based on the worked out evened out time?

see above

they were virtually certainly on for much faster than 3'29.1 evened out as they were limited in last 300 by their open 300 ability ( which for silas isn't great, but likely is for asbel )

I also don't think Kiprop's stumble cost him 0.5. It happened just before the last 100m, which he covered in 12.8 (26.1 last 200m), already exceptional at this pace. He certainly wouldn't have run 12.3. Maybe 12.6

he lost almost immediately 1.5m on the vid after the stumble to silas from side-on shot, which grew in the next 1 - 2s on the head-on shot to more like 3 - 4m before asbel fought back

that is upto 0.5s loss

it is very possible for him to have run 12.3 for last 100 without it

And what on earth do you make of Kiprop's run in Shanghai?

cold, wet & miserable

obviously no interest in it

While I didn't exactly expect him to win against 800 specialists

eh ?

only yego in that field has quicker pb

he shouda feared only yego if asbel ran his best

I certainly would have expected a much faster time and more impressive performance

& the 5k was won in an appalling 13'11

no on men's side were interested in chasing times, just appearing to want to eke out a win

That wasn't the form of a 3:29 1500 guy!!?

what part of cold/wet miserable isn't getting thru to you ?

he ran 3'29 just week before

that's what calibre he shoud be considered as slowest for next few weeks

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