Can Kiprop or Kiplagat break the 1500m WR?

No

NO, JAMMAL AARRASS WILL CLAIM THE WR

After Kiprop's race at Pre in 2007 (I think it was 2007?), I thought he had a chance. Now, I can confidently say it will not be this generation that breaks 3:26.

Yes.

They need to set up a bunch of races where they just really go for times.

Look at Coe, Cram, Aouita, Morceli and El Guerrouj.

That's what they did, they would announce record attempts, get the rabbits going and try to run as fast as they could.

The record didn't always happen but they got to see what their body was capable of and they would adjust in the next race or attempt.

The last few years Kiprop has not really attempted to run fast. He just lines up and tries to win.

Kiplagat may make things interesting.

He jumped on the scene in 2010 with that 3:29 in Monaco, his first major race.

In Doha, they both battled in a 3:29 race, and that was the season opener.

The Olympics are early this year.

The races after the Olympics could produce some really fast times if they decide to go for it. They could really push each to fast times, even if they don't go head to head but throw out fast times and say "beat that."

I think they both have the speed and talent and give each other the competition and motivation.

I don't think so. 3:26 is just an insane time that won't be matched for awhile. I'd love to see them go sub 3:28. Was 2004 the last year we saw one of those?

Fluffy wrote:

I don't think so. 3:26 is just an insane time that won't be matched for awhile. I'd love to see them go sub 3:28. Was 2004 the last year we saw one of those?

indeed, coincidently, it was also the year that the new EPO test rolled out

Kiprop could give it a good run. I think the barrier is more mental than physical with him. Namely, I'm not sure if he really cares to ever run that fast.

Another barrier is getting the quality of pacemaking that El Geurouj got. I don't know who it was pacing him to that 3:26 but they looked like very elite runners.

Robert Kibet took El G through 850 meters. Noah Ngeny took him until about 1150 meters. I think though that what gave El G that extra pop needed to run 3:26.00 was that Ngeny took El G clear past the bell. Look at all his other attempts. At Brussels in 2001, he took it alone with about 450 to go. In Zurich in 2002, he took it alone with just over 400 to go also. In those instances he still clocked a fast time, but his last lap was never 53.25 like it was in Rome 1998. I think in order for anyone to break 3:26, the pacemaker will have to be strong enough to pull the WR challenger almost to 1200m. Let them use a little energy as possible to have the fast final lap needed to break 3:26.

Another barrier is getting the quality of pacemaking that El Geurouj got. I don't know who it was pacing him to that 3:26 but they looked like very elite runners.

Noah Ngeny, actually. Took him through 1200m.

They're both about to turn 23 over the next few months.

When El Guerrouj was 23, he ran 3:28. The next year, he ran 3:26.

So, theoretically, they are on pace to challenge it, but unless they get into position in the next year or two, they'll be running out of time. 24-25 are the peak years. It's going to be very difficult, and they need to get in the right race with the right pacemakers, etc.

asbel is better talent ( 1'43.15pb is class )

that 1'43.15pb is easily worth 1'42.8 - 1'43.0 if he'd run it more aggressively - watch the vid, he was proverbial mile behind at the bell & got that time all on last 100 - 200 sprint

he needs to run 1st lap harder to get 1'42.8 - 1'43.0, but it's in him currently ( or was last year )

his over-distance has improved & he won an x-country race not long ago & canova mentioned he is incorporating long runs for 1st time in his training

i think 7'30 - 7'32.5 is possible

some current estimates

1'43.0 / 7'32.5 ->3'28.88

1'43.0 / 7'30.0 ->3'28.28

1'42.8 / 7'32.5 ->3'28.68

1'42.8 / 7'30.0 ->3'28.09

probably around mid-3'28 currently

in the next coupla years, he woud hope to aim for about

simultaneous 1'42.5 - 1'42.8 / 7'27.5 - 7'30.0 ability

1'42.8 / 7'30.0 ->3'28.09

1'42.8 / 7'27.5 ->3'27.49

1'42.5 / 7'30.0 ->3'27.79

1'42.5 / 7'27.5 ->3'27.20

the fastest i can ever see him going in his career is low-3'27 ( more realistically mid-3'27 )

as a poster said above, it's not going to be this guy to challenge 3'26.0, but i'm prepared to be happily surprised !

someone had to do it wrote:

Fluffy wrote:

I don't think so. 3:26 is just an insane time that won't be matched for awhile. I'd love to see them go sub 3:28. Was 2004 the last year we saw one of those?

indeed, coincidently, it was also the year that the new EPO test rolled out

No, coincidently that was also the last year that El G ran.

It was Lagat that won the race but was pushed to run fast by El G.

Once El G left the scene, no one was there that would push the pace.

Lagat "only" ran 3:29 the next year.

Kiplagat is someone that likes to push it. And he's good.

Kiprop can be challenged to run fast.

As far as rabbits, Daniel Kip Komen and Choge are capable if asked to.

There is also Chepseba who is up and coming who could chase them to fast times.

NO.

We have seen enough to say they are what we think they are. I can see a 3:28 this year, but that is still a long way from the record.

No they will not. Both their PRs are 3 seconds slower than the world record. I could see them maybe getting down to sub-3:28. I'd even go out on a limb and say that anybody we are watching now is not going to break 3:26.

What have you seen?

Have you see them go out hard and die showing that they can't handle the pace?

I doubt they will scare the record but the question is "can" they break it.

I haven't seen enough of them going after the pace myself.

Starting off the year with a 3:29 is pretty good.

The two are great rivals. Whenever one wins, the other does not sleep. If we don;t see 3:27 from them this year, we should forget it. I hope their agents do not enter them in separate races.

Menace wrote:

They seem to have the talent to do so.

Thoughts anyone?

No way! Unless they were to choose to go on some new form of EPO or other ped.

I don't think either will break 3:28, although a post Olympic race between them with decent and efficient pace to the bell could end up with one of them running somewhere between 3:28.5 and 3:29.0

I agree with several of the other posters on this thread, that there is no one currently running at the elite level who is going to run 3:26, let alone beat it.

I think it will last another 10-15 years.

both are good for mid-3'28 now

3'29.6 off a veritable jog to 1200 of 2'50.4 ( 3'33 pace ) shows silas had helluva lot in the tank in last 300

2'48.0 - 2'48.5 & he wouda got mid-3'28

asbel's run was even more impressive as just 0.1s behind & a knock in stretch which couda cost him upto 0.5s loss

mid-3'28 shape in mid-May is damn impressive

deanouk wrote:

I think it will last another 10-15 years.

What happens in 10-15 years that makes it any more likelier than now or in a few years?

I know what you mean. The record is way beyond the current competition.

I thought Butch Reynold's 43.29 for 400m would last as a record for 20 years but it only lasted 11 years.

Although, 24 years later it is the second fastest time ever.

When Sotomayor jumped 8 feet in 1989, after Sjoberg jumped 7'11", I though there would be a number of athletes getting 8 feet after this break through.

No one else has jumped 8 feet some 20 years later.

Just don't know what's going to happen.