Rupp will eventually break 12:50, but never medal in a World Final

broken arrow wrote:

Unless he can improve and break 3:50 in the mile and be able to run mid 12:40s, then he can think about a Medal.

His recent 1500 converts to 3:50.40. He's shared the lead with Farah in the penultimate lap in a few races now. He's got a couple months to sharpen the kick, and he'll be there.

broken arrow wrote:

Unless he can improve and break 3:50 in the mile and be able to run mid 12:40s, then he can think about a Medal.

Haha, good one.

Care to guess the last time anyone ran "mid-12:40's"?

Rupp has got a decent shot at getting a medal. I would say that the real contenders are Rupp, Farah, K. Bekele, T. Bekele and, Kiprop. There could be others up there like Benti or Masai but if Kenenisa does not get in shape and Rupp has a good day he could sneak away with a bronze medal. If the pace goes out slow though I don't think he has the same raw speed as any of these guys. Rupp will run best of they go out under 13:40. My preiction though is Mo with gold, Tariku with silver and Kenenisa with the bronze. It would be really cool to see the Bekele brothers on the podium together as they are two great guys.

coach d wrote:

Actually, his best chance is the Ethiopian Federation not letting Bekele race.

Coach dumb.

BlackMamba wrote:

GO AWAY jesse, cilf or who da f you are. ur posts are useless....

His posts are the best predictors of what Rupp can do out here, amazing really, just take what Jesse/Calvin says Rupp can't do and then Rupp will go and do that and then some. Can't go sub 27, Rupp does 26:48, can't break 8:11, Rupp goes 8:09 AR, can't go sub 3:37, Rupp does 3:34, can't go sub 13, Rupp goes 12:58. Amazing streak going!

Fastnbulbous wrote:

His recent 1500 converts to 3:50.40. He's shared the lead with Farah in the penultimate lap in a few races now. He's got a couple months to sharpen the kick, and he'll be there.

^^^

george oscar bluth wrote:

I see what you are saying, but don't really agree.

First of all, Webb clearly would not have been a good bet, because he was 8th. I like to win money when I bet.

I know this is an old post, but this results-oriented thinking is irritating. Something isn't a good or bad bet based on what actually happens, but on can be expected to happen. For example, if I gave you 10 to 1 odds against the Patriots beating the Giants last year, that would be a great bet for you, even though you would've lost money.

speaker of truth wrote:

I love all the armchair coaches on here talking like they know better than Galen and Alberto what he needs to do to win a medal or what his chances are. Gimmie a friggin break.

Galen and Alberto most certainly know what they have to do. But the difference between knowing and getting into that position takes years. It's not like they will actually help them with that information. So some here may be correct, but that is really easy compared to making it work.

In the mean time, it is good for the sport to speculate because that is what spectators should do! Would you rather fans to be uninterested and not think a lot about the athletes?

It still would be a poor bet to put your money on a guy who has folded like a paper bag in every World Championship/Olympics

george oscar bluth wrote:

It still would be a poor bet to put your money on a guy who has folded like a paper bag in every World Championship/Olympics

Rupp hasn't folded. He just wasn't nearly good enough to compete with the best.

Now he is. And now we'll see.

Best of luck to Rupp.

Look back to who I was responding to and what his response was about. We weren't talking about Rupp. Galen rarely has bad races. He has been pretty consistent in world champs and Olympics in racing to his potential (and not the unreasonable expectations people make for him). He's a great runner, but he just doesn't have the finishing speed to medal. His best chance is for a fit Bekele and Farah to make it an uncommonly fast Olympic 10000m and to be the last guy to get dropped.

I would love to see the OP try and run a 12.58 5 K lol that's 3.1 miles in slightly over 4,10 mile pace.

My mile PR is 4:16, so I couldn't even stick with them for 4 laps. How is that relevant? I guess Lagat, Ritz, Solinsky, Teg, and Kennedy are the only Americans who can observe anything about Galen?

george oscar bluth wrote:

My mile PR is 4:16, so I couldn't even stick with them for 4 laps. How is that relevant? I guess Lagat, Ritz, Solinsky, Teg, and Kennedy are the only Americans who can observe anything about Galen?

They'd make more accurate observations that you...

You guys need to understand something. Rupp is not the Rupp that we used to hate on. He's not the Rupp that struggled to run 3:59/3:58. He's not the Rupp that had no speed and couldn't hang with the big boys till the last lap of a 5k/10k.

Rupp has bridged a CHASM now, with Farah as his training partner, and he's got the mindset to do well. Unlike a lotta American runners who would try to sit and kick with the Africans in a distance race, Rupp is smart enough to know that he can't afford to do that. I think he knows that his strategy is to go with 1000-800m out. Forget leaving it to a 52 last lap. Make that last 800 1:55 and Rupp stands a chance.

I agree with this, and I wonder if Farah will help him make it a fast race. If he gets a little help from Farah, and they run together as a team, I think a medal is just as likely as not.

Farah's gotta be extremely confident in his strength right now. I don't know why he wouldn't try to make that last 800-1000m fast. He definitely wants a faster race in general--don't think he wants to leave the door open for some of the lesser known guys with better final 400m speed.

deleuze wrote:

I agree with this, and I wonder if Farah will help him make it a fast race. If he gets a little help from Farah, and they run together as a team, I think a medal is just as likely as not.

I doubt that Farah will go after making it a fast race in London. Farah will -- IF -- that is the best strategy for FARAH. Farah said in an interview recently that he and Rupp do all the same training, everything exactly the same. As Salazar lays it out.

Farah was asked about saying last year that Galen was capable of running as fast as he has, and then by the end of the season Galen showed it by going under 26.50.

When asked why he was still better than Galen, Farah replied "age, I'm just about 30, I've got a few years on Galen."

Sound about right. Galen is 1-2 year behind Farah most likely.

Sometimes, with Olympics...it is a matter of catching them at the right time in your progress etc.

London may be a year or two too soon for Galen...or maybe he hits a nice peak for the games and makes the podium.

Galen doesnt need year's. He will win Gold this YEAR!