at least not on the track. I respect his abilities and I think he'll put the often referenced "American born" records out of reach for some time in the 5000m and 10000m, but he just isn't going to outrun the best in the World in a championship race. His best chance is Bekele taking over a 10000m and making it a 26:35 affair, where Rupp is one of 2 guys who are able to hold on long enough to medal.
Actually, his best chance is the Ethiopian Federation not letting Bekele race.
You may be right. But you are wrong about his "best chance". I see it just the opposite in pace. It goes out above 27 minute pace with some surges mixed in. But Rupp hangs around the leaders and has just enough kick to nip some Kenyan at the tape for Bronze.
george oscar bluth wrote:
at least not on the track. I respect his abilities and I think he'll put the often referenced "American born" records out of reach for some time in the 5000m and 10000m, but he just isn't going to outrun the best in the World in a championship race. His best chance is Bekele taking over a 10000m and making it a 26:35 affair, where Rupp is one of 2 guys who are able to hold on long enough to medal.
george oscar bluth wrote:
at least not on the track. I respect his abilities and I think he'll put the often referenced "American born" records out of reach for some time in the 5000m and 10000m, but he just isn't going to outrun the best in the World in a championship race. His best chance is Bekele taking over a 10000m and making it a 26:35 affair, where Rupp is one of 2 guys who are able to hold on long enough to medal.
Seriously what does Rupp have to do to prove that he *can* medal?
I agreed that it was stupid for people to talk about Rupp getting a medal at Berlin in 2009 just because he was able to close fast at NCAA's with race times that were 28+ minutes and 14+ minutes, because obviously that says nothing about being able to close in races that are low 27 and low 13.
However, since then, he finished 3rd in both a Diamond League 5000m and 10000m, running 13:06 with a 54 last lap and 26:48 with a 61 last lap, outkicking big names like Imane Merga and Eluid Kipchoge.
He got 3rd in the NYC half marathon, AFTER falling, running 60:30 after doing a slow opening 29:32 10K and running sub 28 pace for the next 10K until the finish.
He ran 13:11 indoors for 5000m, and in both the half marathon and the indoor 5000m he only finished a few seconds behind medalist Mo Farah.
And now he's just run a ****ing 8:09 after splits of 4:06-4:03 and by himself for half the race. He's got strength, he's got speed, and he's finished in the top 3 in stellar fields in races of 5000m, 10000m, and a half marathon.
I'll ask again- what does he have to do that he hasn't done already before someone will admit he has a chance of medalling? Run 8:05? Run 26:40?
Waterboy is right. He has a chance, but I would not call him an odds on favorite to medal either. He is almost certainly going to finish in the top six. Top three? I wouldn't be surprised, but he has to beat five of the three Kenyans, the three Ethiopians and Mo Farah, plus a whole bunch of other people. I'm a big Galen Rupp fan, but I'm afraid he's going to end up being this era's Bob Kennedy.
He is the best non-African in the World. But there is just too much talent from East Africa for him to crack the top three in the World in any major championship.
Unless he can improve and break 3:50 in the mile and be able to run mid 12:40s, then he can think about a Medal.
Agree
broken arrow wrote:
He is the best non-African in the World. But there is just too much talent from East Africa for him to crack the top three in the World in any major championship.
Unless he can improve and break 3:50 in the mile and be able to run mid 12:40s, then he can think about a Medal.
broken arrow wrote:
He is the best non-African in the World. But there is just too much talent from East Africa for him to crack the top three in the World in any major championship.
Unless he can improve and break 3:50 in the mile and be able to run mid 12:40s, then he can think about a Medal.
Actually, I'm pretty sure that he is thinking about a medal already.
Great post. Haters gonna hate. Enjoy this kid, people.
Anyone who doubts that Rupp has the killer instinct just needs to watch the wejo interview. The guy's got a chip on his shoulder, an attitude. This is not a game for him.
Rupp has become Kobe Bryant, the white mamba.
george oscar bluth wrote:
at least not on the track. I respect his abilities and I think he'll put the often referenced "American born" records out of reach for some time in the 5000m and 10000m, but he just isn't going to outrun the best in the World in a championship race. His best chance is Bekele taking over a 10000m and making it a 26:35 affair, where Rupp is one of 2 guys who are able to hold on long enough to medal.
The Waterboy wrote:
Seriously what does Rupp have to do to prove that he *can* medal?
I agreed that it was stupid for people to talk about Rupp getting a medal at Berlin in 2009 just because he was able to close fast at NCAA's with race times that were 28+ minutes and 14+ minutes, because obviously that says nothing about being able to close in races that are low 27 and low 13.
However, since then, he finished 3rd in both a Diamond League 5000m and 10000m, running 13:06 with a 54 last lap and 26:48 with a 61 last lap, outkicking big names like Imane Merga and Eluid Kipchoge.
He got 3rd in the NYC half marathon, AFTER falling, running 60:30 after doing a slow opening 29:32 10K and running sub 28 pace for the next 10K until the finish.
He ran 13:11 indoors for 5000m, and in both the half marathon and the indoor 5000m he only finished a few seconds behind medalist Mo Farah.
And now he's just run a ****ing 8:09 after splits of 4:06-4:03 and by himself for half the race. He's got strength, he's got speed, and he's finished in the top 3 in stellar fields in races of 5000m, 10000m, and a half marathon.
I'll ask again- what does he have to do that he hasn't done already before someone will admit he has a chance of medalling? Run 8:05? Run 26:40?
1) He didn't outkick anyone when he ran 26:48. He was 3rd with a lap to go and he finished 3rd. That's why I said a fast race would favor him - because he has a better chance outlasting stellar competition than outkicking them (in a 10000m anyway).
2) His half marathon is moot. I said on the track.
3) Diamond league fields aren't as tough to place top 3 in. There are a lot of Diamond league meets every year - there is only 1 Olympics every 4 years. Webb won a Diamond league 1500m and never sniffed a medal in a World final.
4) I'll give you that his finish at Birmingham was impressive. He outkicked Merga, but there weren't many other studs in the race (Alamirew also a legit scalp). But, one race against a field that's weaker than an Olympic or World Championship final isn't going to convince me.
But, to answer your question, if he can run a 27 flat or 13:10 race against MANY of the best in the world and kick some guys down, then I'll say he has a chance. It's not that I don't respect the guy; as I said, I think he'll run some insane times, but he won't have the hardware.
I know that Rupp "doesn't have to convince me of anything" and "doesn't care what I think", so you don't have to go into that spiel. I'm just stating my opinion.
I love all the armchair coaches on here talking like they know better than Galen and Alberto what he needs to do to win a medal or what his chances are. Gimmie a friggin break.
I give him an outside chance at a medal in the Olympics this year and a better chance at Worlds next year if he stays healthy -- which he usually does.
After that, he'll be 29 before he gets another chance -- probably too old to improve.
george oscar bluth wrote:
3) Diamond league fields aren't as tough to place top 3 in. There are a lot of Diamond league meets every year - there is only 1 Olympics every 4 years. Webb won a Diamond league 1500m and never sniffed a medal in a World final.
Not sure I agree with this one. Webb's Paris win was in 2007; he would have been a good bet for a medal that year.
Plus, money is on the line AND there is no limit of 3/country at the euro meets. Remember that cash payouts and invites to future paying meets are a big deal to these professional runners.
The bottom line is that there are so many factors, many of which we won't know until the race is playing out, that will play a role in Rupp's odds at championship meets.
For many people here, it won't really matter if Rupp gets a medal; these folks will come on here immediately to tell us how the race isn't representative because it was slow/fast/paced/not paced/tactical/not tactical/won with a kick/won with a slow grind/etc... Just like with Centro - so many people came on here to rat on him just because the race had a slow time.
speaker of truth wrote:
I love all the armchair coaches on here talking like they know better than Galen and Alberto what he needs to do to win a medal or what his chances are. Gimmie a friggin break.
Who is on this thread stating that they know better than Galen and Alberto how to train/coach him? I certainly am not. I think they are a great combo and are maximizing his potential, but what I'm opining on is that potential in a World final, not their methods. Obviously a coach and an athlete both need to believe in the athlete, so I know my thoughts would be contrary to Alberto and Galen's, but that doesn't mean that they KNOW better than anyone else what his medal chances are. There's a reason Vegas odds aren't based on claims by Rex Ryan; impartiality promotes objectivity.
speaker of truth wrote:
I love all the armchair coaches on here talking like they know better than Galen and Alberto what he needs to do to win a medal or what his chances are. Gimmie a friggin break.
Actually, there is not a single post on this entire thread that gives even the slightest hint that the poster "know(s) better than Galen and Alberto what he needs to do to win a medal."
As far as speculating on his chances - isn't that what sports fans do?
george oscar bluth wrote:
3) Diamond league fields aren't as tough to place top 3 in. There are a lot of Diamond league meets every year - there is only 1 Olympics every 4 years. Webb won a Diamond league 1500m and never sniffed a medal in a World final.
legger wrote:
Not sure I agree with this one. Webb's Paris win was in 2007; he would have been a good bet for a medal that year.
Plus, money is on the line AND there is no limit of 3/country at the euro meets. Remember that cash payouts and invites to future paying meets are a big deal to these professional runners.
The bottom line is that there are so many factors, many of which we won't know until the race is playing out, that will play a role in Rupp's odds at championship meets.
For many people here, it won't really matter if Rupp gets a medal; these folks will come on here immediately to tell us how the race isn't representative because it was slow/fast/paced/not paced/tactical/not tactical/won with a kick/won with a slow grind/etc... Just like with Centro - so many people came on here to rat on him just because the race had a slow time.
I see what you are saying, but don't really agree.
First of all, Webb clearly would not have been a good bet, because he was 8th. I like to win money when I bet.
As far as the DL meets...I think the lack of national participants limit can make it harder to get 8th place in a race, but not harder to be top 3. We've seen it plenty in the last few weeks how the best elite athletes dodge each other in track and field. It's very rare to have the best 5 guys in a DL meet running the same event, whereas it's almost a certainty in the Olympics.
DL =/= indoors in which meets will do anything to get anybody just to run.
At least this year, one way for Rupp to medal is to beat Farah. It's hard to imagine he will be the odds on fastest and run away with it. It's hard to believe he will have the greatest kick and get there in the end. On the other hand, day in and day out he must know he beats Farah 30 or 40 or 50% of the time.
Bringing it back.
Great run by Rupp today.
GO AWAY jesse, cilf or who da f you are. ur posts are useless....
Wrong person. Jesse doesn't believe in Rupp's ability to run a fast time. I wholeheartedly do.