Chris Derrick's 2nd half

26mi235 wrote:

But Solinsky... even when he did not he was close and sometimes had doubled.

Err.. Derrick was close.

Dunn has dunn well, fellas. Been top five at Nat's pretty much since he got there. Not sure what you all expect. OK St and Wisco have been loaded the last couple years. Finishing behind those cats ain't so bad...

26mi235 wrote:

But Solinsky won races and even when he did not he was close and sometimes had doubled.

Good for Solinsky, but I don't see what that has to do with my point. "agip" found it "hard to imagine" that a runner could get from a college PR of 13:30 to 13:00 after college. I not only imagined it, I provided three examples of runners who actually did it in real life. Recently. My point is: it's not hard to imagine.

I've always wondered if Derrick has the single-mindedness to really excel at this sport. I don't just mean to beat people he should and to run extraordinarily fast - but to go rabid and slit-eyed and spittle-drenched, to chase demons or whatever it was Quenton Cassidy was always talking about. He seems to have too much ironic detachment from the game: perspective, I guess it's called. It's what makes his interviews fun to watch, but I think it also gives him a certain resignation and melancholy. Listen to the end of that interview; it's fantastic. He sketches the way he envisioned the race playing out - him and Lenny Korir, stride for stride in the last quarter mile, and then him outkicking and beating Korir. Which is exactly how it happened, he adds wistfully, except there was another guy who finished 100 yards in front of them both. It's like he sees the absurdity of the pursuit, and though he can talk about buying into it, I don't know that I'm convinced.

I don't see myself bashing Chris Derrick - he seems like a neat guy, and I admire his good-natured and well-rounded approach to the sport, not to mention his accomplishments in it. I just wonder if, when it comes down to it, racing to win it all is so terribly important to him. Like some other poster wrote, I bet he'll thrive wherever he ends up and whatever he ends up doing. And if he's committed to giving pro running a shot, I'll be rooting for him completely. Hell, I'll be rooting for him to prove my hunch totally wrong.

Derrick doesn't quite have the wheels to really attack the 5k as his main event. Dunn has developed Derrick to be a 5k specialist in college, but it's obvious that his focus should be the 10k and even the marathon. The kid is an aerobic beast and should approach a professional career the same way. I don't see him joining Schumacher's group after he graduates, but I do see him joining Mahon's group. It'll be interesting to see where he goes.

Honestly, between Derrick, Lowe, Fernandez, Puskedra, Diego Estrada, Ryan Hill, Richard Medina, etc., there is a lot of good senior talent graduating from the college ranks this year. I'll be curious to see where they all end up this summer.

Maybe they'll join the soon to be formed Vigilante Track Club.

Derrick ran 13:29 as a freshman and has finished 7th, 3rd, 5th, 2nd at NCAA XC (and had a few 3rd-5th place finishes on the track too).

Teg won no NCAA titles, and his first year out of college ran 13:04 and the next year placed 4th at the world champs.

Bumbi's collegiate best was 13:30 and 8th in cross (and 2 top 3 track finishes), and last summer he went 13:16 and was 4 seconds out from making the world champs final (after he got there as an alternate from Solinsky withdrawing).

Derrick's had a better collegiate career than these guys, so methinks he could have a very good pro career as a 5K/10K runner. He was 7th at USAs this past summer, right?

It's interesting that you see a 2nd place finish as showing great coaching, but not evidence of great running potential.

My guess is that he'll find 15 of the 30 seconds you're looking for at the cardinal invite this year.

On another thread, someone made a good comment - he suggested Derrick might have gone after the win in an individual race, but in a team xc race, he did not not want to risk blowing up. In other words, the difference between 1st and 2nd is just one point, but if had blown up and finished 20th, that would meaningfully hurt his team.

I am encouraged to hear that Ritz and Teg and others ran about the same times for 5k as Derrick- I think Derrick is at least as talented as Teg, so he's definitely got a shot. Probably at 10k and up tho.

Some people have a really good PR but do not race well while others have similar PRs but get the job done, and so I would rate the latter type as better than the former, despite similar PRs -- not really a big insight, and not contradicting your comment. More to your point, I think that the 'latter' type (e.g., Solinsky) is more likely to make that big post-college jump. Centro must be a pretty good member of that 'group' where is college PR does not fully represent his potential. [again, in line with your comment]

chauncey wrote:

26mi235 wrote:

But Solinsky won races and even when he did not he was close and sometimes had doubled.

Good for Solinsky, but I don't see what that has to do with my point. "agip" found it "hard to imagine" that a runner could get from a college PR of 13:30 to 13:00 after college. I not only imagined it, I provided three examples of runners who actually did it in real life. Recently. My point is: it's not hard to imagine.

Posters are implying Derrick's plea to go with the risky moves- makes it likely to happen. I'm not so convinced. Those type of moves are usually more innate/instinctual, than deliberate, thought out. It's also why I hate young runners getting restrictive game-plans. Making tactical mistakes on your own and making due in the race, is the best teacher. You learn how to race, instead of getting instructions.

Chris has raced Lawi Lalang 3 times in the last month alone. He probably figured BY nationals the most effective way to race Lawi....and that was obviously not going with Lawi the first half.

In other words, Chris has plenty of experience racing Lawi Lalang.

An above post said off Derrick's interview, he regretted not going with Lalang. So he's either lacking said aggression, or he wasn't telling the truth... or the poster was wrong.

It wouldn't surprise me if his PR is 13:15 by the end of next summer, but I also wouldn't be surprised if it hardly budges. However, if it's still 13:29 at the end of the year, I think that will be more a function of collegiate and elite racing rather than a reflection of his talent. This guy has serious, serious talent. I'm not sure if he has the killer instinct, but, honestly, which of our pros does? Any of them? Solinksy does...until he's nudged or steps off the track or doesn't feel perfect, etc). I think Derrick's event will be the 10,000 and I think he can be right up there with Bobby Curtis by his first year out, and by the next year, I could see him getting close to 27 flat.

Derrick's last 2k was the fastest of anyone in the field by 5 seconds. He really killed it.

I posted the times for the whole field from 8k to the finish here:

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=4330150

Only 3 people have broken 28 minutes @ lavergne gibson and derrick is the 3rd behind lawi and sammy. Think about all the american breakthrough in the last 3-4 years and none have them have ran as fast as derrick at lavergne gibson. Ritz, hall, rupp, teg, sol. I think this shows Derrick can ran under 2730 within a year out of college if not next spring.

dfasdf wrote:

Only 3 people have broken 28 minutes @ lavergne gibson and derrick is the 3rd behind lawi and sammy. Think about all the american breakthrough in the last 3-4 years and none have them have ran as fast as derrick at lavergne gibson. Ritz, hall, rupp, teg, sol. I think this shows Derrick can ran under 2730 within a year out of college if not next spring.

I meant 29 minutes. my bad.

You have to think that you cant compare times like that in xc. Rupp ran 29:03. Had the race played out differently/ better conditions he could have broken 29.

Derrick is the man. 4 tops tens? nice.

how many healthy years has Derrick had? One. That's when he ran 13:29 as a freshman. He's been very good every time in cross country and we haven't seen him risk very much for the win. But take last year: he ran well in track but had a limited base. If he stays healthy through outdoor track this year, we should see a big drop to an A qualifier at 5k or 10k.