I guess you missed the point about my post, but it's good that you feel that passionate about it.
run barefoot run healthy wrote:
kanny wrote:Yuki Kawauchi of Japan ran a 2:08:37. The question I have for this community is based on your opinion, what are the chances that he's doping?
I think you need to read up about Yuki Kawauchi and then wash your keyboard out with soap.
I had time to reorder the list by population as per suggestion. Some similarities, but more differences than you would expect if you assume athletes from all countries violate doping regulations at an equal rate.
Looking at the list this way, countries that seem to have higher prevalence of doping violations would be India, France, Great Britain, Italy, Ukraine, Poland, Morocco, Romania, Greece, Portugal, Belarus and Austria. Countries with significant T&F participation which seem to have lower prevalence of doping violations include Japan, Mexico, Ethiopia, Germany, Tanzania, Kenya, Canada and Uganda.
China - 11
India - 19
U.S.A. - 10
Brazil - 10
Nigeria - 7
Russia - 7
Japan - 0
Mexico - 1
Ethiopia - 1
Germany - 1
Egypt - 1
Iran - 1
Turkey - 2
France - 5
Great Britain - 4
Italy - 7
South Africa - 2
South Korea - 1
Myanmar - 1
Spain - 2
Colombia - 1
Ukraine - 6
Tanzania - 0
Kenya - 0
Poland - 3
Canada - 0
Morocco - 4
Uganda - 0
Venezuela - 1
Saudi Arabia - 1
Syria - 1
Australia - 1
Romania - 5
Kazakhstan - 2
Belgium - 1
Greece - 3
Portugal - 4
Czech Republic - 2
Bolivia - 1
Belarus - 4
Austria - 3
Switzerland - 1
Israel - 1
Bulgaria - 2
Serbia - 2
Slovakia - 2
Eritrea - 0
Norway - 1
New Zealand - 0
Croatia - 1
Lebanon - 1
Puerto Rico - 2
Moldova - 2
Jamaica - 2
Qatar - 1
Estonia - 1
Bahrain - 1
Just something to consider, but it is also worth noting which countries actually maintain domestic anti-doping programs. For example, in the US, USADA conducts some level of testing for American athletes both in competition and out of competition. On top of that, you get IAAF/WADA in-competition and out-of-competition testing. So the end result is that you essentially have two layers of drug testing. But if you are from, say, Kenya (and to be fair, many other countries), you only get the IAAF/WADA testing. I think anyone would agree that IAAF/WADA out of competition testing efforts are pretty sparse.
Not really the fault of Kenyan athletes, but something to think about before people make too many comparative inferences from these results.
TheClear wrote:
Track and field participation rates might be tricky to get hold of, but you could use either
a) Size of team sent to last Olympics.
or
b) Total medals won
as proxies for relative sports involvement for different countries.
Good ideas. I'll take a look at option B when I get a chance using the numbers from Daegu, the ones most relevant to the current ban list.
A valid point, >>, one that should be taken into account in a real study.
>> wrote:
Just something to consider, but it is also worth noting which countries actually maintain domestic anti-doping programs. For example, in the US, USADA conducts some level of testing for American athletes both in competition and out of competition. On top of that, you get IAAF/WADA in-competition and out-of-competition testing. So the end result is that you essentially have two layers of drug testing. But if you are from, say, Kenya (and to be fair, many other countries), you only get the IAAF/WADA testing. I think anyone would agree that IAAF/WADA out of competition testing efforts are pretty sparse.
Not really the fault of Kenyan athletes, but something to think about before people make too many comparative inferences from these results.
USADA tests non-Americans present in the US, in addition to American athletes:
http://www.usada.org/tdp/Here are some recent testing statistics:
http://www.iaaf.org/mm/Document/Antidoping/TestingStatistics/05/94/35/20110301092933_httppostedfile_IAAF_015F-1_REV1_IAAFOOCTListofAthletes-110301_23693.pdfKenyanna wrote:
Ian Lokoparentis wrote:Kudos to Kenya.
Hear, hear.
+1
For this to have any meaning, you have to assume that the number of athletes sanctioned for doping is proportional to the total number of athletes doping from that country.
That's a pretty big assumption.
To spell it out for you, maybe the Indians are just new to doping, and not as experienced at covering their tracks as other countries who've been doing it in an organized way for 40+ years. E.g. I have no reason to believe that the US is especially dirty, but I'm sure that there are more than 10 cheaters in the entire country.
Yes, that's also a good point which would have to be taken into consideration in a serious study. Dial down the condescension one notch and it adds something to this thread as well. I'm not sure how you would account for it numerically or to justify your assumption that there are more than 10 cheaters in the U.S., but it's an important point anyway.
coach d wrote:
DOPING PER CAPITA
USA 1 doper per 30.7 million
Brazil 1 doper per 20.4 million
Russia 1 doper per 20.4 million
UK 1 doper per 16.4 million
Jamaica 1 doper per 1.4 million
That's how they win those sprint medals.
hahaha and they haven't even caught the most obvious guy! (and never will by the way)
Just noticed Jerome Young who has a life ban is coaching
Unbelievable
coach d wrote:
DOPING PER CAPITA
USA 1 doper per 30.7 million
Brazil 1 doper per 20.4 million
Russia 1 doper per 20.4 million
UK 1 doper per 16.4 million
Jamaica 1 doper per 1.4 million
That's how they win those sprint medals.
Sour grapes, hope you're not really a coach! Jamaica is no expert at doping, they simply have better sprinters and only started winning after the U.S. got blown out with the doping scandals. That level playing field sucks, huh?
India's number is big, considering that there are not many athletes in T&F. Probably compares to a country like Belgium or so.
China is also a huge number - again, not many athletes there.
Brazil, Russia, Nigeria, Italy, Ukraine and Romania are also high considering they don't really test over there so all these tests must come from in-competition tests.
Stupid Indians, why even bother
We spend a lot of money and a lot of energy to ban this few people. Yes I know its worth it. blah blah blah__________________________________________________________
insiders know wrote:
http://www.iaaf.org/mm/Document/Antidoping/SanctionedAthletes/05/61/97/20110516102918_httppostedfile_Athletescurrentlysuspendedasat16.5.11_24529.pdfThe hall of shame - the number of athletes per country currently serving doping bans. India is in a class by itself, but performances by athletes from China, the U.S.A. and Brazil should be viewed with skepticism based on the levels of drug use evidenced by the number of doping bans. Russia, Nigeria, Italy, the Ukraine, Romania and France also appear untrustworthy, while Portugal, Morocco, Great Britain, Belarus, Poland, Greece and Austria are dubious at best. Countries notably free of doping convictions include Canada, Eritrea, Japan and Kenya.
India - 19
China - 11
U.S.A. - 10
Brazil - 10
Russia - 7
Nigeria - 7
Italy - 7
Ukraine - 6
Romania - 5
France - 5
Portugal - 4
Morocco - 4
Great Britain - 4
Belarus - 4
Poland - 3
Greece - 3
Austria - 3
Turkey - 2
Spain - 2
South Africa - 2
Slovakia - 2
Serbia - 2
Puerto Rico - 2
Moldova - 2
Kazashstan - 2
Jamaica - 2
Czech Republic - 2
Bulgaria - 2
Venezuela - 1
Syria - 1
Switzerland - 1
South Korea - 1
Saudi Arabia - 1
Qatar - 1
Norway - 1
Myanmar - 1
Mexico - 1
Lebanon - 1
Israel - 1
Iran - 1
Germany - 1
Ethiopia - 1
Estonia - 1
Egypt - 1
Croatia - 1
Colombia - 1
Bolivia - 1
Belgium - 1
Bahrain - 1
Australia - 1
Sorry to inform you are wrong. In Italy there are a lot of controls out of competition from the Federation, connected with the National Antidoping Agency. When I was the Technical Scientific Director of FIDAL we had not less than 300 test out of competition per year. And, also if now I don't know exactly what is going on in Italy, I don't think the system changed.
2010 IAAF Drug Tests
RUS --132-- IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII
USA --85-- IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII
KEN --84-- IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII
ETH --55-- IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII
ESP --33-- IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII
FRA --33-- IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII
GBR --32-- IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII
POL --31-- IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII
JAM --29-- IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII
MAR --28-- IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII
JPN --27-- IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII
UKR --26-- IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII
GER --25-- IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII
BLR --22-- IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII
CUB --22-- IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII
ITA --22-- IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII
CZE --16-- IIIIIIIIIIIIIIII
ROU --16-- IIIIIIIIIIIIIIII
RSA --15-- IIIIIIIIIIIIIII
POR --14-- IIIIIIIIIIIIII
AUS --13-- IIIIIIIIIIIII
BUL --11-- IIIIIIIIIII
UGA --11-- IIIIIIIIIII
CHN --10-- IIIIIIIIII
BAH --9-- IIIIIIIII
BRA --9-- IIIIIIIII
TRI --9-- IIIIIIIII
ALG --8-- IIIIIIII
BRN --8-- IIIIIIII
CAN --8-- IIIIIIII
NED --8-- IIIIIIII
TUR --8-- IIIIIIII
NZL --7-- IIIIIII
QAT --7-- IIIIIII
GRE --6-- IIIIII
NOR --6-- IIIIII
BEL --5-- IIIII
ERI --5-- IIIII
IRL --5-- IIIII
KSA --5-- IIIII
SLO --5-- IIIII
SUD --5-- IIIII
SVK --5-- IIIII
EST --4-- IIII
FIN --4-- IIII
HUN --4-- IIII
LAT --4-- IIII
MEX --4-- IIII
BOT --3-- III
CRO --3-- III
ISV --3-- III
KAZ --3-- III
SWE --3-- III
ANT --2-- II
ARG --2-- II
AUT --2-- II
BAR --2-- II
CYP --2-- II
DOM --2-- II
HAI --2-- II
IVB --2-- II
LTU --2-- II
MDA --2-- II
NGR --2-- II
SRB --2-- II
TUN --2-- II
AHO --1-- I
ALB --1-- I
AZE --1-- I
EGY --1-- I
GAB --1-- I
GUY --1-- I
IRI --1-- I
IRQ --1-- I
JOR --1-- I
KOR --1-- I
KUW --1-- I
MON --1-- I
PAN --1-- I
PER --1-- I
PUR --1-- I
SEN --1-- I
SKN --1-- I
SUI --1-- I
kanny wrote:
Yuki Kawauchi of Japan ran a 2:08:37. The question I have for this community is based on your opinion, what are the chances that he's doping? He has a full time job, doesn't have a lot of "talent," and doesn't live or train at altitude. Is he someone that letsrun can universally accept as clean?
If that's the case, then why the heck are there only 2 Americans ever (1 natural born) who have run faster than this time? (That's even with the higher than low probability of epo usage in the US besides Eddy Hellebuyck). It's amazing how easily people on this board bash Ryan Hall when he's the ONLY American-born who's even close to competitive in the marathon. We should be giving him our FULL support even when he has an off day because without him, we're worse than pathetic in the marathon. The Americans who bashed his windy sub 2:05 are worse than the Tiger Mom and Red Sox fans pre-2004. Geez. /rant
You're just a classic American in that can't accept the fact that someone could be better than an American.
Canada hasn't doped? What about Ben Johnson?
If kenyans did dope I think the world records would be impossible to even imagine. I give kenya credit b/c they have so many athletes that are competive and replace each other all the time. The country is so gifted on the distance side. Now if we ever see a fast kenyan 100 guy well then maybe we can speculate but untill someone is caught they are all clean in my opinion. It is so easy to call someone a dopper but with out proof or even a positive test it is hard to really tell. I do find it funny the d bags that love to get on here and call people doppers for entertainment purposes. I bet if they were a gifted athlete who was clean that they might not take being called a dopper very well. One thing is for sure if I got to pick what I could go pro in it would not be running and I love running. It would be soccer b/c it is not really known as a dirty sport. Lets be honest though as long as there is a competive sport there will always be people cheating.