Andrew Wheating - Under 3:29 this season or not?

toro wrote:

ryan foreman wrote:

And it always amuses me how so many on this board like to round down on a runner's time. It sounds good that AW ran 3:30 but he is really a 3:31 runner.

Runners don't round down, we truncate.

If someone runs 9.99 they are a sub 10 guy. If they run 10.00 they are not.

If he runs 3:59.9 he is a sub 4 miler. If he runs 4:00.0 he is not.

Wheating is a sub 3:31 runner. That you can't deny. So just say he is a 3:30 guy.

Asbel Kiprop, the Olympic Champion, is a 3:31 guy (3:31.20).

Grouping people in the range of 3:29.51 - 3:30.50 and calling them 3:30 guys seems a bit more arbitrary than grouping them in the range of 3:30.00 - 3:30.99 and calling them 3:30 guys.

Well, actually, stupid runners truncate. Smart runners round (or don't).

Someone who runs 9.99 is indeed a sub 10 guy. But they are not a 9.9 guy or a 9 guy.

Wheating definately has the talent to go under 3:30. I'm not sure if he will or not, but Im going to go ahead and say he will. Now, sub 3:29, don't think so, its that close.

PS. I would love to see Wheating take down Webb's mile AR in the next few years. Not saying it would happen, but it would be awesome.

If Wheating runs 3:29.49 or lower, I'll run down to the track and blow him right there on the finish line. That's how unlikely it is.

722 wrote:

i will say that he'll run under 3:30. people are reading too much into the DMR anchor that he ran. his only goal in that race was to win and he did. thats all that matters.

When and where and what was his split?

Well, by your standards most runners are stupid.

Because I guarantee you most knowledgeable runners would say that Alan Webb ran 3:30 and 3:46 before they would say he ran 3:31 and 3:47 if the decide to leave out the fraction of a second.

Truncating is just as mathematically acceptable as rounding to a specific significant digit if you are consistent.

I said speedwork because speedwork is rough on the calves. Nothing I saw last year suggested that he would not be able to challenge for an Olympic gold medal next year, but he will have to be more aggressive in staying close to the leaders. He will be able to walk down anyone, but not from the back of the pack. If you think that he cannot run 3:28, think about the fact that he ran 3:30.9 in his FIRST European 1500m. He is relatively new to the sport. He has more than enough speed at 800m to do it. His 800m pr is soft and he should easily knock over a second off of it. And we are heading to another cycle of fast times, as evidenced by the series of fine times by up and coming runners since last summer, so he should have some fast guys to kick off of.

Largely agree but for the underlined part, with emphasis on "easily."

I think he will match or come close to matching his times from last year. If he does this some people will undoubtedly be disappointed. If he does better than this however, I think all of us would consider it a great success. His aim is surely medaling in whichever event he has the best chances at. Therefore, times are not the whole story, not even close.

That said, I agree with others who believe 2012 will be a bigger year for him. Cannot wait to see what happens.

You idiots think that because he ran a good race once will magically come back and run a 3:28 wow!! How ignorant people are about the sport!! It takes numerous times of good performances we are not talking about 3:31-2s we are talking about 3:30- 29s to be able to crack into those times I think is possible for him to run 3:29 but that's as fast as he will ever run. His style of running is not appropiate, he needs to stay up in the front closer to the leaders and to change that its going to be hard. I think its more likely for Asbel kip.. to crack on those time the question should who is more talented Asbel or Andy ?

magical world wrote:

... I think its more likely for Asbel kip.. to crack on those time the question should who is more talented Asbel or Andy ?

Magical world indeed.

What, pray tell, were you trying to say here?

He will do it as long as he stays healthy. He jumps in 1 good 1500 in Europe and runs 3:30.xx

Stop being surprised by anything Wheating does. He is the real deal on an international level, and a legitimate medal contender in 2012.

Show me Wheating's out of competition drug test results.

Here is the USATF list of athletes testing negative:

http://www.usatf.org/groups/HighPerformance/AntiDoping/negatives/2011/2011q1.asp

Guess who you won't find in the list, and it's that way for quarter after quarter. You'll find Lagat, Manzano, and the other big guns all over the place. You'll find Robby Andrews (who has also been injured) and Cas Loxom...but you won't find Wheating.

Andrew Wheating = Rachid Ramzi

I expect him to show up for 1 1500 qualifier just like Ramzi did.

relatively pretentious post there magical world, care to share what makes you so qualified to label Wheating as a guy that will dip 3.29?

He's improved rather rapidly through minimal exposure to the European circuit, what's to say consistent training and the right race in Europe doesn't see sub 3.29 happen?

to label wheating as a guy that will never* dip 3.29.

He has a good chance.

And to labeled Andy as 3:28 which he has never done! what do you call that?The guy is capable of many surprises but whats for sure is that it is going to take more than just a few fast races to be able to crack into a good time. not only running those times but also he is going to have dominate and there are just a lot of kenyans that are pretty fast..we are just going to have to wait an see. Aren't we?

in need of a beverage wrote:

to label wheating as a guy that will never* dip 3.29.

Whatever the case for 2011, Lagat left the door open by not lowering Maree's 1500 AR. Within the next two years, both the mile AR and 1500 AR will be by athletes with the initials A.W.

I hate to repeat myself, but you guys are getting so ridiculous it seems necessary.

Number of people who have gone sub-3:29 in the last 7 years: ZERO.

Number of people who have EVER gone sub-3:29: Six.

Number of sub-3:30 performances in the last 4 years: Three.

Some guys who did not (or haven't yet) gone sub-3:29: Ramzi, Kiplagat, Chirchir, Aouita, Komen, Choge, Cram, Coe, Maree, Rotich, Ovett.

Still want to bet that Wheating goes sub-3:29 this year? Really??

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see him do it. But it's a dumb bet.

http://www.iaaf.org/statistics/toplists/inout=o/age=n/season=0/sex=M/all=y/legal=A/disc=1500/detail.html

i have no idea