Next American Under 13

I like your choices here. All of them I would consider as candidates. Here is my picks in order of when they acheive the mark.

1. Webb

2. Rupp

3. Fernandez

4. Derrick (.01 behind Fernandez in the same race)

I see a lot of the others in the 13:0x's and I believe runners like Bumbalough, Bethke, and Jager would even be more likely to make the Olympic team because of their speed and/or consistency.

Webb...I just don't think so. Too much of a headcase and nowhere close to the runner he used to be.

Rupp seems to be struggling at 5k more than he should. Not counting on him. I think he'll continue to do amazing things at the 10, though.

Fernandez seems to have plateaued for the time being. I think he might have a Bumbalough like career - plagued by injuries and doing what he can, then breaking out as a pro afterward. Obviously he's already done better things than Bumbalough, though, so the comparison isn't great. Regardless, I think he's a few years away.

Derrick I think has a great shot, but also a few years away. He and Fernandez were phenoms, but their peers are catching up, and I think it'll be some time before they get to the elite professional level. Ritz's PR was something like 13:16 until he was 26, for reference.

Tim Nelson doesn't have the speed. He's great but geared more for the longer distances.

Sam Chelanga I think will more and more shift toward the 10k and excel at that. Who does he train with?

Bobby Curtis seems nearer his potential than guys like Fernandez, Derrick, Bumbalough, and Jager. I think he'll top out at an incredible 13:10ish PR.

My three picks to watch out for in the next 2 years:

Bumbalough: traditionally he's been stronger at track than cross country (13th and 8th at NCAA XC his last two years while running 13:30, 3:37, 3:58), yet he just ran away from Teg at USA cross and gained on Vaughn, a true strength/distance runner. This shows his strength is up hugely, and he already has the speed. I think he goes 13:12-13:18 this year, and dips under 13 in a big Euro race next year or the year after.

Jager: I am assuming he'll come back from his injury without any more issues. Plunk him in with Bumbi, Teg, and Solinsky and he'll gain strength rapidly to match his speed, which is even better than Bumbaloughs. I think he manages a 13:35 this year, if he runs, and then explodes the next to be right with Bumbalough.

Centrowitz: this is my dark horse. This guy has some f***ing wheels. He's run, what, a 3:35 1500? That is ridiculous. Plus, he just beat Webb, Fernandez, Chelanga, etc, in a 3000, running 7:50. He showed great strength in cross country this year. If he focuses at all on the 5k instead of the 1500, I think he is going to do big things.

I could see rupp doing it this year. And if Webb starts getting in some 5ks these next two years I could see him doing it next year. Probably a Few more people could do it the next coupe years after that.

I forgot how Lomong is training with Schumacher now. Chelanga will probably go under 13 too. Jager has been hurt and it's going to take him a while to get back. I think Heath post-collegiately could be better than Fernandez, Derrick, Riley, Puskedra etc. I forgot about Bayer. He's going to be even better after college. Centro should stick with the 1500. I considered Mo Trafeh. Patrick Smyth has also been running really well. Bethke is a 13:20's guy and is now training with Willis and Emmanuel. He could have a big year too.