Lukas Verzbicas Talks To LetsRun.com

I thought the last comment by letsrun, that closed the interview, to be a little bizarre/uncalled for.

Rojo and Wejo are two very weird people. They're sort of very negative. Other than making this great site, I hate basically everything about them (half joking).

I would love to see Lucas break 4:00, but after the interview I say, "no way." Did it escape everyone's attention that: 1) Lucas has a bum knee!; 2) He hasn't been working out! Now both of these comments by Lucas may be disinformation to hedge against a big failure tomorrow, but, if they are true, my guess is he will be lucky to PR tomorrow. My prediction, considering everything: 4:05. Thanks.[quote]long dong silver wrote:

He's a phenom, but even phenoms need to put in the work and get sharp. Doesn't sound like he's there yet. Hope he goes sub-4, but I believe in doing the work more than hoping. Prediction: 4:06.2, after going out a bit too hard.

his most best workout was 17 miles at 6min pace??

um, not breaking 4.

If you think that 4:04 represented Lukas' full ability last year you are mistaken. He is very close to Webb-like development so far. That said, Webb ran only 3:59 indoors, so 4:00-flat seems a good measure for LV.

not tomorrow wrote:

also rojo, your statement about webb running 4:03 junior year and lukas running 4:04 so he should have a good chance at sub 4 tomorrow doesn't make sense to me. i was on that south lakes team, and trust me, alan was definitely capable of running faster his junior year. he got a little injured at the end of the year so his season got shut down a few weeks early. he ran 3:59 dmr anchor at penn that year. there wasn't a person on the team junior year who didn't think he was capable of running 3:59-4:01 that year. and even given that, his 3:59 indoors was a shock! so i very much doubt lukas has any real chance at sub 4 tomorrow. but i could totally see him going like 3:57-8 outdoors.

okay its nice to guess that 4:04 wasn't his full capability but unless you know his training personally thats a complete guess. if lukas gets any pr at all, even 1 second, that'd be huge since its early feb.

Webb also split 1:47 in high school. If Lukas runs an 800 sub 1:50 this year I'll eat a bucket of my own feces. You can't easily compare Webb and Verzbicas at the mile distance based on xc results. Verzbicas is not a true miler, he's just really good in general. Doesn't have the wheels of a Webb-type.

rojo... if you are giving him 90% odds i would def wager as much as could on it not happening... those odds are too good...

honestly let us think as vegas would... what is most logical outcome?

4:02 i suppose.

so when we look out from there... what is the chance of it being sub 4? or over 404? about 25%

so with that i would give him an honest betting odds at 12.5% so what does that work out to... 87.5 to 12.5 so... 7/1

honestly after reading his interview i wouldn't be surprised if he is just not in great shape right now and pops out like a 4:08 or something.

wedlock wrote:

rojo... if you are giving him 90% odds i would def wager as much as could on it not happening... those odds are too good...

No no. I'm not betting on it. As an NCAA coach, i'm not allowed to bet :).

You don't seem to understand how being a media figure works. There's not point in making safe logical explanations like 4:02 as no one remembers them. Media stars are taught at an early age to make outlandish predictions so if they come through, they can say how smart they are.

If the flop, no one remembers. It's a win win.

I can't write next week's "week that was" extolling my brilliance and then seeing everyone go ballistic on the boards.

-Rojo

PS. Hypothetically, who does everyone like in the super bowl?

eb white wrote:

rojo wrote:

b) Ryan hall was a phenom who ran near 4:00 in HS but we found out years later he was not a miler at all and still hasn't ever broken 4:00 or its equivalent.

he ran 3:42.70 in 2001. you don't consider that a sub 4 equivalent?

I haven't paid attention to this in a few years, but the last I recall 3:42.18 was the 4:00.00 mile equivalent. This is like my fourth olympic cycle on letsrun fwiw.

So, no, 3:42.70 is not worth sub 4.

You had better get your bib ready dude cause that steamy bucket of feces is about to be served up! If you put it in the blender first and add a little milk & protean powder it will go down quicker. Or....I can FedEx a bucket of mine (C.O.D. of course), and you can start right away! Yummmmmmmmie! Last night I had a few of those really spicy 7 Eleven burritos and blue Big Gulp!

LUKAS V = LUIS VUITTON = BALLIN OUTTA CONTROL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

LUKAS V = LUIS VUITTON = BALLIN OUTTA CONTROL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

LUKAS V = LUIS VUITTON = BALLIN OUTTA CONTROL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

LUKAS V = LUIS VUITTON = BALLIN OUTTA CONTROL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

kartelite! how's it going. this is kronenberg.