Is Joseph Ebuya 2011 form nearing the form of 2002-2006 Kenenisa Bekele's?

NO, Ventolin, it is not a fair proposition that Ebuya is in 26:30 shape. Nobody takes you seriously when you write this kind of crap. Ebuya has run 12:51. That is his best. He may run 26:30 one day. He is not there yet. Look at your post. You say his split gets better the more you think about it. Yes, many performances get better the more YOU think about them, and it is mostly nonsense.

YesSir wrote:

MAPIV

I have to side with Vent and VIPAM on this one. Ebuya is clearly in the best shape of his life after looking at his x-country success 2010/2011. My apologies MAPIV but your definitely showing your ignorance again.

So what if he is in the best shape of his life, that does not equate to K. Bekele's top performances.

moron

he ran 12'51 as a raw kid

no one but an idiot believes he is an inferior athlete now compared to then

i doubt anyone believes he can't go 12'45 currently

usual ballpark conversion to 10k from 5k for a 5k/10k runner ( & his x-country title over 12k means he is a bona fide 10k guy )

is

double 5k + 1'00

Ventolin, you are so stupid. You think Ebuya can run 12:45 currently. You're so stupid. Ebuya will NEVER run 12:45. Look at his progression: 12:51 '07 13:06 '08 12:58 '09 13:11 '10. How idiotic are you?

only a moron believes a 20y ole who runs 12'51 coudn't run considerably quicker at 23 -25y once injury/illness free

& in that 12'51 he came 4th losing in a sprint to winner shinester in 12'50.16

that race was on for 12'45 but turned tactical in 4th km & degenerated into a last lap sprint

all 4 of those guys wouda gone big sub-12'50 if they had run hard in the 4th km

as to his actual 12'51 ->26'42 back then if he was a 5k/10k runner

he is now

if a guy had 26'42 potential as a 20y ole, what idiot woud believe he coudn't challenge 26'30 at his peak years ???

The achievements of Ebuya, who comes from a family of eight children, are all the more impressive as he could not train for athletics for ten months from mid-2008 to early 2009 due to doing basic army training

Following this sabbatical, Ebuya returned to athletics competition by posting an eye-catching 12:59 in Zurich and making the Kenyan World Championship team, after only three months of training, thus explaining his below-par position in Berlin last August

Eliud Kipchoge ran 12:46 when he was supposedly 19 years old, and tell me, genius, has he run faster since? Perhaps on your calculator, but in the real world he has not. Ebuya is an old looking supposedly 23 year old, and he will NEVER run faster than 12:51.

choge has been in 12'50 shape for most years since, but that doesn't tell any of the story

he was in ebuya's 12'51 race & as with others shouda gone big sub-12'50 with hard 4th km

he was in arguably best shape of his life in peking but coudn't live with kennster who musta been in at least 12'40 shape

he ran 12'51 in brutal heat of doha in '10, musta been 90F - suicidal race in that heat which killed him for rest of year - run that at 70F & what on earth you think he was going to run ???

he has been in better 5k shape than that 12'46pb, but not hard right conditions or required hard 4th km

as for ebuya, like i said, only a moron doesn't reckon he is in better than 12'51 shape, but you are a top moron

Malmo wrote that the conditions in Doha for that 5000 were ideal for running fast. Perhaps you disagree with him. I'd say Malmo was right, and that if conditions were not ideal, they were close enough...

Neither Kipchoge nor Ebuya were @ 20 or 19y old running their extraordinary perfomances.

Wake up people, they calculate time ompletely different

ventolin^3 wrote:

that 27'22 split gets better the more you think about it

he ran solo from 3 miles ( 5k )

if he'd had top guys like tadesse/komon/kiprop pacing him to 10k, he coud expect 1s/400m better -> 12s -> 27'10

now, this is a road course, & not particularly quick either, possibly worth 15 - 20s faster on a track ->

26'50 - 26'55

so it's possible he split equivalent of a 26'50 - 26'55 & kept going at fair pace for another 6.1km !!!

on that basis, it's a fair proposition that he currently is in 26'30 shape

I heard there were some nasty solar winds that day, can you convert for that?

solar winds are a hoax.

I learned in 2010 that Malmo's citation of weather conditions at the municipal airport will always trump my own observations, even if I'm alongside the marathon course, in T-shirt and shorts, running a nice sweat at 8:30am.

But look at how all the great 5000m runners other than Kipchoge and Chepkok fared in Doha last May. Imane Merga (PB 12:53) actually ran far better than most, with a 13:05. Mark Kiptoo (also 12:53 in 2010) ran 13:34!

Just as striking are all the DNFs. Two or three (Boulahfane, Birgen, and Simotwo) are pacers, but the other three (Gebremeskel, Bekele, Abdosh) were in top 5000m racing shape in 2010, and showed it in the other DL meets. How often do you see three top competitors drop out of a relatively short track race, when even a sixth- or eighth-place finish could gain them points toward a Diamond League crown?

Finally, no PBs in this race except Chepkok (for whom the conditions apparently were ideal), Boujattaoui (whose performance has been DQd by the IAAF, he tested positive for CERA at WXC earlier last spring), and Abera Kuma (13:20 - I'm guessing it might have been his first track 5000m in Europe).

To me, nearly all signs point to less-than-ideal conditions. (Admittedly, I couldn't find mid-race splits, so I'm open to the possibility that an unrealistic, sub-12:50 early pace, *combined* with high temps, caused the slow times and DNFs.)

MAPIV wrote:

Malmo wrote that the conditions in Doha for that 5000 were ideal for running fast. Perhaps you disagree with him. I'd say Malmo was right, and that if conditions were not ideal, they were close enough...

I never said the conditions in Doha were ideal, I said they were just fine. It was an illustration that temperature is not a fungible commodity. 90degrees, very dry, at 9:00pm (three hours after sundown at the equator) is much better than running at Pre with only 70 degrees under the Sun.

Mr. Battery wrote:

I just want to say that KB ran 13:26.6 in 2002, then 12:52.3 in 2003 before his 12:37.4 record in 04 so it's possible.

I just want to point out that KB ran 13:13(5K) and 7:30(3K)in 2001 and was still a Junior (won Juniors xc title). You details about 2002 are a little misleading.

Just saying.

We will find out if Joseph Ebuya this year is near the x-country form of Kenenisa Bekele. If Joseph wins by 15-20 seconds then he maybe near the form of Kenenisa in x-country but won't be near Kenenisa pb's on the track.

malmo wrote:

MAPIV wrote:

Malmo wrote that the conditions in Doha for that 5000 were ideal for running fast. Perhaps you disagree with him. I'd say Malmo was right, and that if conditions were not ideal, they were close enough...

I never said the conditions in Doha were ideal, I said they were just fine. It was an illustration that temperature is not a fungible commodity. 90degrees, very dry, at 9:00pm (three hours after sundown at the equator) is much better than running at Pre with only 70 degrees under the Sun.

Malmo, you wrote this last May 15th regarding the Doha 5000:

Again, for the n-teenth time, there is temperature and there is temperature. Temperature is a measurement. Humidity is a measurement. The key measurement of energy in the air is DEW POINT.

The race was run at night. Sunset at near the Equator is 6:00pm. That means the race went off two and a half hours past sunset. There is NO radiant energy coming from the Sun. There is little stored energy in the air. It's a good time to run.

The 5000m went of at 8:35pm. The temperature was about 94, the DEW POINT was 54. In other words it was ideal for running fast. The physiological benefits of a higher entropy without barriers to heat dissipation.

Read more:

MAPIV

Your trying to call Vent3 a moron when your posts are full of contradictions. You say Joseph Ebuya may run 26:30 but turn right around and say he will never run 12:45? You are truly a fool's FOOL.

Just because an athlete stalls doesn't mean he won't improvement on his pb's later in his career. There are numerous athlete's performances that stalled or hit a long plateau; however, they improved later in their career. One prime example is Menjo. So stop being stupid, my bad you can't LOL!

stupidSTUPIDER wrote:

MAPIV

Your trying to call Vent3 a moron when your posts are full of contradictions. You say Joseph Ebuya may run 26:30 but turn right around and say he will never run 12:45? You are truly a fool's FOOL.

Just because an athlete stalls doesn't mean he won't improvement on his pb's later in his career. There are numerous athlete's performances that stalled or hit a long plateau; however, they improved later in their career. One prime example is Menjo. So stop being stupid, my bad you can't LOL!

Listen imbecile, I don't believe that Ebuya will run 26:30. I wrote that he "may" run 26:30 but he will NEVER run 12:45. You see this as a contradiction. I don't, and smart people can see that it is not. Five runners have run 26:30 in history. Only 3 have run 12:45. Ebuya is a strength runner and he has a better chance at 26:30 than 12:45. I did not write that he would run 26:30.