Mr. Obvious wrote:
Actually the four 300 game winners in the past decade means that statistically 300 game winners are over-represented historically in the 5 man pitching rotation era. It might be a statistical anomaly, as that is a small sample size. The previous generation of 300 game winners (Carlton, Seaver, Ryan, Sutton, Neikro) all pitched some of their career in the era of 5 man rotations as well. Just about every team switched to a five man rotation by the mid-late 70s, with only the Orioles continuing with a 4 man rotation into the 80s. Warren Spahn and Early Wynn were the last pitchers to win 300 games pitching exclusively in 4 man rotations--I guess you could count Jim Palmer, too as he pitched the vast majority of his career before the Orioles converted. Between 1924 and 1982 only 3 men won their 300th game.
The rarity of 300 game winners before 1982 is interesting and there are many reasons (money, worse injury prevention, etc.).
Here are the top 20 in games won by active pitchers:
1. Jamie Moyer (47) 267 L
2. Andy Pettitte (38) 240 L
3. Tim Wakefield (43) 193 R
4. Roy Halladay (33) 169 R
5. Livan Hernandez (35) 166 R
6. Tim Hudson (34) 165 R
7. Kevin Millwood (35) 159 R
8. Derek Lowe (37) 157 R
CC Sabathia (29) 157 L
10. Javier Vazquez (34) 152 R
11. Roy Oswalt (32) 150 R
12. Mark Buehrle (31) 148 L
Mike Hampton (37) 148 L
14. Barry Zito (32) 142 L
15. Jeff Suppan (35) 138 R
16. Chris Carpenter (35) 133 R
Freddy Garcia (35) 133 R
Johan Santana (31) 133 L
19. Jon Garland (30) 131 R
20. Chan Ho Park (37) 124 R
Realistically, who has a chance?
Moyer outside, Pettitte extreme outside (if he continues to pitch, which I doubt).
Maybe Halladay if he has Clemens type endurance.
Sabathia is a possibility. I'd be shocked to see anyone else on that list make it. Predicting for guys w/ fewer than 120 wins is pretty tough!
I'd say that if 2 of those guys make it, it would be impressive.