eojtlc wrote:
Anyone who has tried to train at the type of level these guys are training at knows there is a big difference in what the body will do at 22-23 and 27-28. I don't know that Webb is beyond his prime, and I hope he runs better this year than he ever has, but saying he will do that for sure is an extremely bold statement. While I am not quite as pessimistic as Trackcoach, I think that 3:32, 1:44, and 13:05 would be very good results for Webb this year.
Have you trained at that level?
This conversation is a bit insane. Webb ran 3:53 at 18 years old. He's run 3:46 and 1:43. El Guerrouj ran 3:27.64 one month short of his 30th birthday. Webb will be 28 this coming outdoor season. He's healthier than he's been in three years; he's thinner than he's been in years; his form (lost in the discussion of Ritz's form) is clearly much improved (view the videos from last years races). No one really knows how well he'll run this year, but given his comeback last year and his amazing ability, I'm optimistic he'll be able to run 3:30-31, which puts him out of reach of all Americans except Wheating.
I agree. I think Wheating and Webb will both be at 3:31 or faster this coming year. That is fast enough to challenge for a WC medal with proper tactics.
TrackCoach wrote:I hope you are correct; I hope Webb runs 1:42, 345, 329 and 12:52 this year. As fans of the sport, we always want the glass to be half full, but you are looking at it as overflowing. Webb is a tremendous talent and perhaps if he had never got hurt, he would have run those times by now. Webb ran 1:47/3:36 last year, 1:45/3:33/13:12 would be good progress this year. In fact I will say 1:44/3:32/13:05 for this year, but as much as I would like for it to happen, I can't see Webb's first full season coming off of an injury being the best season of his career. Webb is not old, but can't keep discussing his upside when all of the top guys in the 800/1500 last year were on average 23/24. In fact, Silas Kiplagat, Augustine Choge, Wheating, Greyson, Kemboi, Kiprop, Rudisha, Kaki and Lalang on average are only 22.3 years old.
Webb is very talented and I think he will be back to his old self perhaps in 2012, but the only event I can see him setting a PR in this year is the 5000 or 3000.
Disagree a little about the age factor: plenty of athletes have hit their peaks in their late 20's or even early 30's, and if Salazar is a better coach than Raczko and if Webb stays healthy from now on...
I agree with his not setting any new PR's in the 800 or 1500 (or mile) this year. Maybe the 3k or 2 mile IF he even takes a shot at it, but that's about it. 2012 (or, if he's lucky, also 2013) is going to be his big, probably last, chance(s) to build upon his accomplishments at least in the 1500. So hopefully he stays healthy and builds confidence this year to set up a memorable last hurrah in London (or perhaps Moscow).
They should sell a few of the extra alterG's they have lying around, and I'm sue they could scrounge up enough pocket change for a indoor track. I'd rather run in the rain, haha.
I didn't know the 2nd floor of the Nike Headquaters was Rupp-certified
Even if Webb gets back to 3:30-3:31 he's going to have a tough time making US teams.
When he was winning US championships he was doing so over a group of 3:36+ guys. Now he's got another 3:30 guy and two very good racers who aren't too far behind. This doesn't take into account Lagat or any of the college kids.
I used to do that in HS wrote:
They should sell a few of the extra alterG's they have lying around, and I'm sue they could scrounge up enough pocket change for a indoor track. I'd rather run in the rain, haha.
Yeah the fact that nike doesn't have an indoor track is really odd. Does anyone know how much a basic indoor track facility would cost? Surely they could make it up in a few years just by holding a couple of high profile meets. Also their treadmills only go down to 5min miles? What the heck, there are lots of treadmills out there that go way faster than that. Why on earth would they buy the basic tread mill for the fastest guys in the country?
eojtlc wrote:
[quote]betterbutter wrote:
You, sir are an absolute moron. Wheating is the only runner inside the US who has a chance at touching Webb on the track in 2011. Lomong and Manzano, while great runners, will never approach Webb's previous times or those he will run in 2011. Lucky to be back at 1:45 and 3:33? WOW, you really underestimate Webb. He will be at 3:30 or better until 2011 is over. If he gets into enough and the right 800's he'll be at sub 1:45.
His indoors will be 3:35-3:36-ish.
No, I believe it is you who is the moron, I actually thought TrackCoach's post was very insightful and intelligent.
Anyone who has tried to train at the type of level these guys are training at knows there is a big difference in what the body will do at 22-23 and 27-28. I don't know that Webb is beyond his prime, and I hope he runs better this year than he ever has, but saying he will do that for sure is an extremely bold statement. While I am not quite as pessimistic as Trackcoach, I think that 3:32, 1:44, and 13:05 would be very good results for Webb this year.
And Webb has been trashing Rupp, someone supposedly "in his prime" in workouts and ran away from him their most recent 5k, but that is no indication of where Webb is at, right? Webb might race 1 legit 5k on the track this year (outdoors) despite all the "ideas" alsal and webb are talking about. they are playing extremly coy. IF and I maintain that IF Webb stays healthy, by outdoors and WC he will have a solid year of training back under his belt, and you all think he won't be better than 3:33. He, by his own indication trained from spring of 2009 to sprind of 2010 almost entirely on an ELLIPTICAL, gets on the alter g in early summer of 2010 and within a few months is about 2 strides behind the winner at 5th avenue, after running an 800 weeks before that had everyone saying he was done.
Alsal has never indicated what he thought Webb of 2007 was ultimately capable of but indicated after reading his training logs that webb's on "humorous" comments about going after the WR were not really joking material.
Webb is back, and he's healthy, in body AND mind, is eating right and by all acounts enjoying training again and looking forward to racing. He will trash everyone in the US this year at the 1500, including the new wonderboy - wheating.
"there is no such thing as bad weather, just soft people"
There is no such thing as bad weather, just bad clothing choices.
And Webb has been trashing Rupp, someone supposedly "in his prime" in workouts and ran away from him their most recent 5k, but that is no indication of where Webb is at, right? Webb might race 1 legit 5k on the track this year (outdoors) despite all the "ideas" alsal and webb are talking about. they are playing extremly coy. IF and I maintain that IF Webb stays healthy, by outdoors and WC he will have a solid year of training back under his belt, and you all think he won't be better than 3:33. He, by his own indication trained from spring of 2009 to sprind of 2010 almost entirely on an ELLIPTICAL, gets on the alter g in early summer of 2010 and within a few months is about 2 strides behind the winner at 5th avenue, after running an 800 weeks before that had everyone saying he was done.
Alsal has never indicated what he thought Webb of 2007 was ultimately capable of but indicated after reading his training logs that webb's on "humorous" comments about going after the WR were not really joking material.
Webb is back, and he's healthy, in body AND mind, is eating right and by all acounts enjoying training again and looking forward to racing. He will trash everyone in the US this year at the 1500, including the new wonderboy - wheating.[/quote]
I hope you're right. I think Alan is a really nice guy, and he is one of, if not the most talented runners the US has ever had. I'm just not sure I am quite as optimistic as you are. Here's hoping Alberto doesn't try and change his form and give him 3 stress fractures.
And to the previous poster, yes, I have. I never got to a rupp/webb level, but I trained with those goals in mind. I have a mid 13:XX 5k pr and a 4:00 mile pr, and trained for 3 years after college with many runners who were significantly faster than I was. I felt and noticed many people breaking down after about 26 and not being able to do what they used to do. Track is a young mans game.
How did Ritz improve? He dropped mileage and finally added quality. Then Alberto decided that wasn't good enough. Ritz gets injured. Then we got back to crazy shakes stride changes, insole changes and frosty techno obsessions. Pretty much everything except the old pyramid under the bed trick.
How did Rupp improve? Alberto accepted speed was a limiting factor. Overall training mileage was kept lower to allow higher quality training. Rupp improves 800-10000m averaging ~80 miles/week,but peaks early in 2010, then overextends racing season. Alberto decides problem is lack of volume, despite the fact the past two world record holders in the 10000m have had a ~3:31 1500m best. And the 2010 world leader yawns his way to a 3:55 mile solo...
Bekele 26.3/3.52 = ~7.5
Geb 26.3/3.52 = ~7.5
Rupp 27.16/3.65 = ~7.5
dsrunner has the day off wrote:
How did Ritz improve? He dropped mileage and finally added quality. Then Alberto decided that wasn't good enough. Ritz gets injured. Then we got back to crazy shakes stride changes, insole changes and frosty techno obsessions. Pretty much everything except the old pyramid under the bed trick.
How did Rupp improve? Alberto accepted speed was a limiting factor. Overall training mileage was kept lower to allow higher quality training. Rupp improves 800-10000m averaging ~80 miles/week,but peaks early in 2010, then overextends racing season. Alberto decides problem is lack of volume, despite the fact the past two world record holders in the 10000m have had a ~3:31 1500m best. And the 2010 world leader yawns his way to a 3:55 mile solo...
Bekele 26.3/3.52 = ~7.5
Geb 26.3/3.52 = ~7.5
I love this guy!!
Rupp 27.16/3.65 = ~7.5
If you had to guess, what percentage of the posts on this site are?
1. Elite runners
2. College runners
3. HS runners
4. Coaches
5. People paid to post on this site
6. One of two Winklevoss twins
DaveW wrote:
If you had to guess, what percentage of the posts on this site are?
1. Elite runners
2. College runners
3. HS runners
4. Coaches
5. People paid to post on this site
6. One of two Winklevoss twins
1. 0.05%
2. 15%
3. 5.95%
4. 8%
5. 1%
6. 0%
7. Has-beens and hacks: 70%
fsdafsd wrote:
DaveW wrote:If you had to guess, what percentage of the posts on this site are?
1. Elite runners
2. College runners
3. HS runners
4. Coaches
5. People paid to post on this site
6. One of two Winklevoss twins
1. 0.05%
2. 15%
3. 5.95%
4. 8%
5. 1%
6. 0%
7. Has-beens and hacks: 70%
What the hell are you?
2011-
1500: Wheating, Webb and Monzano/Lomong
5000: lagat, solinsky, teg
10000: ritz, rupp, nelson
2012-
1500: wheating, Monzano, lomong
5000: lagat, teg, webb
1000: solinsky, rupp, ritz/Nelson
Derrick, puskedra, Fernandez and Jager pick up the torch post 2012 (for 5k/10k) as lagat gets too old, ritz tries marathoning again, and rupp possibly goes marathon.
Care to identify any of these "objective measures," TrackCoach?
"and by all objective measures a 1 or 2 beyond his prime for a middle distance athlete"
Webb is not going anywhere in 2012 other than the 1500. Tell me some darkhorse is going to take his spot for Londonn but not monzano or lomong.And for all the upside everyone things Wheating may have please realize that he could very well crash and burn, either by injury or mentally or just not have "it" anymore. Webb has got "it" back, that fire in his eye that is not quenched.
Space wrote:
2011-
1500: Wheating, Webb and Monzano/Lomong
5000: lagat, solinsky, teg
10000: ritz, rupp, nelson
2012-
1500: wheating, Monzano, lomong
5000: lagat, teg, webb
1000: solinsky, rupp, ritz/Nelson
Derrick, puskedra, Fernandez and Jager pick up the torch post 2012 (for 5k/10k) as lagat gets too old, ritz tries marathoning again, and rupp possibly goes marathon.