Fernandez is going to run a 3:35 at Nationals. It is going to be smoking. Centrowitz will have an undiagnosed stress fracture by nationals. I belive some evidence is already there, he only ran a 3:51 this past weekend. This is 15 seconds slower than a few weeks ago, there must be something wrong. Centrowitz has a stress fracture or some other ailment.
Wheating really hasn't impressed me this year like last year. I'm hoping it's because he's training really hard so that the best races come at NCAAs, USATF, and overseas.
ghostface killah wrote:
Wheating really hasn't impressed me this year like last year. I'm hoping it's because he's training really hard so that the best races come at NCAAs, USATF, and overseas.
That's what Lannana said, that they are training Wheating for a later peak.
seeing it right wrote:
german has run fast while running completely even, he has not won a very competitive 1500. centro has now won 2 VERY competitive 1500's. if it goes out slow, probably centro. if it goes out fast, probably centro.
if he'd run 9 seconds slower, then it would have been competitive.
Does anyone have the ncaa schedule for the 1500 & 5000?
It'll be pretty hard for him to run away from the NCAA field from the front.
Fernandez has run faster by himself in a non-rabbited race than any of these guys have with rabbits. If you want to beat Fernandez, you better be ready to run a PR. He's not going to dick around and leave and see who can run the fastest 400.
3:55.02 converts to a 3:37.68 for 1500 so he is right in the mix of the top 1500 guys. Anyone who ran 337 or 336 has a shot at winning, along with Ulrey and Mcclary
solo artist wrote:
Fernandez has run faster by himself in a non-rabbited race than any of these guys have with rabbits. If you want to beat Fernandez, you better be ready to run a PR. He's not going to dick around and leave and see who can run the fastest 400.
solo artist wrote:
Fernandez has run faster by himself in a non-rabbited race than any of these guys have with rabbits. If you want to beat Fernandez, you better be ready to run a PR. He's not going to dick around and leave and see who can run the fastest 400.
Yes, that's good- should be a fast one rather than tactical at NCAA's. But that plays into Centro's hands- he's already shown he can handle a fast pace. He will be fine with Fernandez acting the Rabbit for 3 laps, and then the last 300 meters will be Centro's.
What about those who say Fernandez's solo 3:55 indoors would indicate he's capable of 3:34 or less outdoors with some competition?
Personally I think it's more likely he'll have some kind of a fracture or rupture or other dire emergency during the championship race, only to run another world junior record a week later.
If this does play out and all of the guys at the top of the performance list do make the final, what would their reaction be to German taking it out hard? I'm guessing they'd be totally down with that. Get in line and start jockeying with 600 to go to get in position for the last 300 when all hell breaks loose. Count me as skeptical that German will be 10 meters clear of the field with 300 to go.
As a separate question, if you had to make a bet on one of two choices: German/Centro winning vs. any of the other ten guys who get to the final winning, which would you take? Again, assuming the usual suspects are there - Emanuel, Wisco and Ark guys, Heath, etc.?
If I had to bet on "German/Centro" versus "all others" I'd take German/Centro, unless Wheating was doubling, which would be enough to make "all others" more appealing.
I'll take the German/Centro wager too. :)
Boo Radley Runs wrote:
Fernandez is going to run a 3:35 at Nationals. It is going to be smoking. Centrowitz will have an undiagnosed stress fracture by nationals. I belive some evidence is already there, he only ran a 3:51 this past weekend. This is 15 seconds slower than a few weeks ago, there must be something wrong. Centrowitz has a stress fracture or some other ailment.
hahaha, I pray to Krishna that was a joke..
Here was the splits in that Pac 10 race.
1st 400- 62
800-2:13 (73)
1100 2:59-3:00 (45)-300
1500 3:51 (52-51) most likely 51 cause rupp had a little lead.
NCAA's won't go out slow. This was a huge wake up call to the guys in that race. THis race was stacked!! They won't let that happen again.. It is going to be a fast race
J.R. wrote:
I'll take the German/Centro wager too. :)
German proves to run all out while in front and have nothing left. Problem is, his all out is right in line with what at least 3-4 of these guys are capable of, but they have proven to be able to close down over that last 200.
If German leaves I guarantee you ulrey will be thrilled to tuck in behind and pay back some overdue revenge, and centro and company will be happy to take their crack. If German doesn't lead it's going to be a big shamble down the home stretch when the kicking goes off.
As someone else pointed out there is no guarantee that all the right players get through since weird things happen in heats. German also will likely run a hard heat to make sure he gets through and not get nipped by a 3:41 guy with a better kick.
You guys are killing me. Every time someone runs fast it that person against German. Let's see: German vs. Rupp, Luke, Chris, Coe, AJDumbCosta,Oh not him, Wheating, Manzano, Lagat,ect. I know I have forgotten a few names, but come on, let the young man run. OH I have forgotten the comparison to the other young great runners of the past.The jealously on these boards in unbelievable.
"I truly believe both of them will be much better at this distance than the 1500. Matt went to Oregon with better endurance than speed. (Not that he was slow by any means!)It is only recently that he has found this extra gear and been able to do so well at the 1500 and mile.
I honestly believe that one of these two and possibly Derek will eventually break the American 5K record."
what about rupp?
My rule of thumb is that front running wire-to-wire can work if you have at least a three second advantage in the 1500. That would require German to be in 3:32-3 shape next month. Possible, but a big stretch. I think that Centro has the upper hand at the moment; we'll just have to see everyone peaks for this.
Running from the front, you only need a .001 second advantage.
Also German seems to run faster when someone is close to him.
ncaa schedule
5000m semis - wed jun 10 9:25 pm
1500m semis - thu jun 11 8:10 pm
5000m finals - fri jun 12 8:40 pm
1500m finals - sat jun 13 1:21 pm
That is quite a doable double.
I can see German running both events in the finals.
link for schedule