2008 NCAA D1 XC Predictions

yea both mcneill and kinsella higher...i'd say 4-6 range

i think people might really be underestimating the effect the jump to 10k will have on the freshmen...none of them will finish top 8, even german

my picks:

1. rupp

2. chelanga

3. songok

4. mcniell

5. david

6. kinsella

7. fernandez

8. mesecho

9. vail

10. smyth

Kosgei and Lowe were both under 24 at Pre nats.. and you no that Vail would of been to.. ChirChir had an off day at big 12s and you know he can run faster... Oregon is really deep I think that they will upset UofO

Kosgei and Lowe were both under 24 at Pre nats.. and you no that Vail would of been to.. ChirChir had an off day at big 12s and you know he can run faster... Oregon is really deep, but I think OSU can pull and upset

I think 15 of the top 50 coming out of the West is accurate. This looks like a very well thought out and analyzed list. I don't disagree very much, but think that Oregon will win by around 5-10 points. Here is why...though Chelanga may well best Rupp, it will be a good race. Kenny Klotz was injured earlier and was not 100% at the Pac 10's. He is a tough kid and with another race under his belt (and three weeks to gain momentum after the Pac 10), he could surprise quite a few people. Andrew Wheating and Matt Centrowitz are both inexperienced at this level and it showed a bit at the Pac 10's. The good news for the two of them is that they could have gone into "sprint mode" a bit earlier. Either of these two could move up 4 or 5 spots. Curtis Suver is not listed in your Oregon top 5, but he is very good and could easily fill the gap if any of Oregon 3 through 5 runners have a bad day. I point this out, as weel as the fact that Oregon has incredible depth which gives them room for a surprise race from a Klotz, Suver or Mercado. Their depth is superior to any other team, and this is why they can win, even without top performances from their top 5.

A big question is how will the increase from 8k to 10k affect the teams. The only obvious factor is that the 800m guy is not an optimal 10k guy. In addition, the guys trying to get back after injury will be a little light on base, which is more important in a 10k than 8k, and a slow course would add to that aspect.

considering that True ran almost the exact same time as Bumbalough and Smyth, except he did it alone, he should probably be closer to them in the list.

I was at VCP that day, and he looked the most relaxed of all three- I think he would have beaten them both had they raced.

I'd put True around 20th.

dug wrote:

yea both mcneill and kinsella higher...i'd say 4-6 range

i think people might really be underestimating the effect the jump to 10k will have on the freshmen...none of them will finish top 8, even german

This is probably the only post I disagree with. You can't just dismiss a runner just because they're a freshman. True frosh Franklyn Sanchez was 5th in 2000, Ritzenhein 4th in 2001, and miler Webb just missed the top 10 in 11th that same year. I'll be surprised if I don't see at least Fernandez and Derrick in the top 10.

irun wrote:

my picks:

1. rupp

2. chelanga

3. songok

4. mcniell

5. david

6. kinsella

7. fernandez

8. mesecho

9. vail

10. smyth

You guys are underestimating vail by a large margin. I'd put him and mcneil close, as they seem to have big kicks at the end of races. I'd move kinsella down: injury and a weak field (alabama boys didn't put up much of a fight, although they've proven at prenats that dellinger was a fluke) means he's not top 5 material. I'd say:

rupp

chelanga

mcneil

vail

david

songok

fernandez

bumbalough

kinsella

smyth

There is no question that True's race at conference was more impressive than Bumbalough and Smyth. He's definitely top 10 or 15 if they are.

undulating underestimation wrote:

You guys are underestimating vail by a large margin. I'd put him and mcneil close, as they seem to have big kicks at the end of races. I'd move kinsella down: injury and a weak field (alabama boys didn't put up much of a fight, although they've proven at prenats that dellinger was a fluke) means he's not top 5 material. I'd say:

Kinsella is top 5 material.

hm..... wrote:

ChirChir had an off day at big 12s and you know he can run faster...[/quote]

Indeed, even though Chirchir was 13th at Big 12, I listed him ahead of Marial and Uhl, who were 6th and 7th. However, Chirchir was way off that day, nearly a minute, so he's going to have to prove himself at regionals to move up from 40th.

I think Shackleton's a red-shirt senior this year, he ran the New York marathon so I don't think he's training for Nationals.

Terminator X wrote:Betterbed beat Tyson David(!), Suver, Centrowitz, Kutingala, Bor, Shackleton, and Kirwa who are all on this list. He was 12 seconds behind Puskedra, 6 seconds behind Maiyo, and 4 seconds behind Kiptoo-Biwott. Eyeballing the list that puts him somewhere in the mid-20's.

Yep, I'd put him at about 26th, and move Kipchumba up to top 15. From looking at the posts, it looks like there's 30 people contending for top 15. It's definitely stacked with talent this year!

So aside from Oregon (1), OK State (2), Stanford (3), Alabama (5), Wisconsin (6) and Iona (8), how would you all rank the other teams? Which don't appear to have much chance of making it to nationals? Coaches poll ranking from Nov 4 in parens.

Arkansas (24)

Auburn (12)

BYU (11)

California (20)

Cal Poly (19)

Colorado (16)

Columbia

Florida

Florida State (25)

Georgetown (9)

Indiana (28)

Iowa State (21)

Lamar

Liberty

Michigan (9)

Michigan State

Minnesota (14)

Northern Arizona (7)

North Carolina State (18)

Notre Dame (27)

Penn State (29)

Portland (4)

Princeton

Providence

Syracuse

Texas

Texas A&M (22)

Tulsa (15)

UCLA (26)

UTEP (30)

Villanova

Virginia (13)

Virginia Tech

Washington (23)

William & Mary (17)

Wyoming

Thanks 26.2 Always look forward to your posts on the team. There are some nasty rumors abounding in regards to Brandon B. Sometimes I hate the internet. Here's hoping for a podium finish. Cheers from Boston.

ANDREW WHEATING FOR PRESIDENT....HES READY TO STEP UP AS AT LEAST THE 2 GUY these next 2 weeks expect a sub 30 performance from the underestimated 800 m runner

dellinger was kipchumba's first EVER cross race, and he had only been in the country for 4 weeks.

this guy has serious potential and is being under estimated.

watch for him in the top10. top 20 for sure.

wisco wrote:

Thanks 26.2 Always look forward to your posts on the team. There are some nasty rumors abounding in regards to Brandon B. Sometimes I hate the internet. Here's hoping for a podium finish. Cheers from Boston.

There was a post on another thread that said that the problem with the ASU transfer is that he talked with them, and them with him, before getting permission. The goes into one of the subsets of 'tampering' and most schools treat that differently.

As for comments, it seems that you need to have some value in reputation and if posters that have no 'track record' to go on say things, I take them with very little authority.

I will note that I am NOT an insider and did not go to UW, much less run for them, just that I live around the area and officiate track and field.

Interesting that you bury Forys, top 34 combined at PreNats, yet elevate Centrowitz who has never beaten Forys in XC,and elevate Macnamara, who beat him once this year,and no times last year.