probably 49.0
I was alot faster than some guys who could outkick me over last lap. My friend ran sub 4 and 1:51 with 53 400 speed. I was way faster over 400, but could not run sub 4. if the race was even in last 100 I was going to win. Bekele can run a final 400 with anyone, but I bet Alan Webb is way faster over 400m. I would put my money on Bekele vs Webb in last 400m of 5k any day.
Ventolin, no way Bekele can only run 51.xx. Most 4:15 milers in high school can ran 51.xx open. Bekele can run faster than that for 6.25 1600s. He could run 49.low at least.
midwesta wrote:
I think this question has been asked about 1000 times on this forum, and every time people think that Bekele could run 47 seconds because of the way he finishes his 5k-10k. That's just not the way it works. As one of the other posters notes, these guys are absurdly efficient and are aerobic beasts, so when they need to drop the hammer, they can get pretty damn close to their top speed. I'd be surprised if he could go under 49.
Exactly. When you are doped to the gills and capable of running 26:10, sprinting at the end of a race won in 27:10 isn't exactly hard.
ventolin wrote:
I also predict that if Wariner moves up to 800 meters he will run 1:38.63.
Could you explain this one more? I'm assuming it's because Wariner's 200 is so much less impressive than his 400 that it points toward him being an endurance guy rather than 100 meter sprint type.
No they can't, they just say they can. HS and College runners GROSSLY exaggerate their 400m bests. Most 4:15 milers in HS have around 53 in them for a 400, though they all claim much faster. I think alot of times they think they can run that fast, but if you actually put the watch to them they would be greatly dissapointed.
Also, there's a funny thing that happens when runners exaggerate on their 400m ability, they end up super-exaggerating pro runners 400m ability. Like ventolin said, if Kenny B had 47 400m speed he would crush every WR from 800 up. It's just not possible. His basic 400 is probably just a tad faster than he's closed in one of his more tactical races.
I've seen some pretty crazy guesses on what guys 400m bests would be so I'll throw out a 'reality check' version of what I believe some elite runners 400m prs to be:
Alan Webb-47.5(based on his 1:43 800m)
El G-48.75
Bekele-49.75 or 50 flat
Meb-53.5
Alan Culpepper-54.0
Ritz-53.5
Hall-51
Lagat-48.5
10k-Teg-50.5
Mottram-49.5
Geb-49.0 or so in his prime
Coe ran 46.89 to place 2nd in 1979 UK 400 champs. That is a fact; that is a result.
Ovett ran 47.6 as a 17 yo to win 1973 UK junior 400 champs. That is a fact; that is a result.
All the rest is pure speculation, whether it be Webb, Cram, Bekele, El G.
And don't try to pass off 1600 meter relay legs as legit times....again speculation and trigger happy stopwatch coaches.
If El G is so blazing fast, why didn't he ever race an 800 or 1,000 meter race during his 10 year international career. I put more stock in Lagat's 2:16.9 BECAUSE HE ACTUALLY RAN IT.
These guys purposely don't race under distance because they don't want their competitors to see their actual base speed.
Chad Hall has run a 51.77 400....that is a fact....a RESULT.
All the rest is coulda....shoulda.
I'll take this on. I do believe he didn't write that though someone stole his name and put that on there.
I get a kick out of the folks saying JW couldn't run an 800 just because he says he doesn't want to.
I get that he doesn't want to, and probably never will run an 800m. He'll probably spend his career running great 400s and continue to be around the 10th best American over 200m. His sub par 200m compared to his 400m leads anyone with a brain to realize he would run a very fast 800m off the training he is currently doing.
It's kind of a shame, because JW could have gone down as Juantorena x 3, he's that talented.
Exactly. Someone finally talking some damn sense.
Killa Mike wrote:
No they can't, they just say they can. HS and College runners GROSSLY exaggerate their 400m bests. Most 4:15 milers in HS have around 53 in them for a 400, though they all claim much faster. I think alot of times they think they can run that fast, but if you actually put the watch to them they would be greatly dissapointed.
Also, there's a funny thing that happens when runners exaggerate on their 400m ability, they end up super-exaggerating pro runners 400m ability. Like ventolin said, if Kenny B had 47 400m speed he would crush every WR from 800 up. It's just not possible. His basic 400 is probably just a tad faster than he's closed in one of his more tactical races.
I've seen some pretty crazy guesses on what guys 400m bests would be so I'll throw out a 'reality check' version of what I believe some elite runners 400m prs to be:
Alan Webb-47.5(based on his 1:43 800m)
El G-48.75
Bekele-49.75 or 50 flat
Meb-53.5
Alan Culpepper-54.0
Ritz-53.5
Hall-51
Lagat-48.5
10k-Teg-50.5
Mottram-49.5
Geb-49.0 or so in his prime
So, El G whose coach claims in his training logs that he did 10x300 at 35-36, albeit with a rabbit, can only muster 48 high. Seriously doubt that, no 48.75 guy could do that workout. He never ran a serious 800 or 1000.
The reason I mentioned Chad Hall's 51.77 was due to a thread on here several years back that was titled "Chad Hall can ONLY run 51.77". There was much speculation about Chad's perceived lack of speed.
My thought was BRAVO for actually running an open 400.
It never ceases to amaze me the Dyestat wankers who will list a 51 flat 400, 49 point relay leg.....but can only manage a 1:55 or 1:57 800. Those numbers don't add up.
If you can run a 51 flat 400, you can run a 1:53 flat 800....no question.
He didn't do that workout. If you believe that I've got some oceanfront property in Oklahoma I'd like to show you...
silly old fossil wrote:
If El G is so blazing fast, why didn't he ever race an 800 or 1,000 meter race during his 10 year international career. I put more stock in Lagat's 2:16.9 BECAUSE HE ACTUALLY RAN IT.
I laughed hard. After all, what was the 400m pace of El G's 1500m WR? 54.93, which gives him a 2:17.3 1000 at his 400m pace. 500m less running I'm sure he can go faster for the 1000. He didn't race it because he didn't need to, not because he couldn't throw down a 2:13-2:14 in his sleep.
Poker wrote:
silly old fossil wrote:If El G is so blazing fast, why didn't he ever race an 800 or 1,000 meter race during his 10 year international career. I put more stock in Lagat's 2:16.9 BECAUSE HE ACTUALLY RAN IT.
I laughed hard. After all, what was the 400m pace of El G's 1500m WR? 54.93, which gives him a 2:17.3 1000 at his 400m pace. 500m less running I'm sure he can go faster for the 1000. He didn't race it because he didn't need to, not because he couldn't throw down a 2:13-2:14 in his sleep.
So Poker, you are telling me that you never varied your racing distance during your illustrious career? You only ran the 1,500 and mile?
My college team was full of "I ran a 49.xx on a relay in HS" guys.
Of course the team only ran 3:33, but they ran sub 50. And they run 75 mpw in college and with that "sub 50" basic speed still somehow can only muster 1:55 and 4:15.
Asking a distance runner what he runs the 400 in is on par with asking the backup high school middle linebacker what he ran for the forty yard dash. He'll always tell you 4.5-4.6. Just like the distance runner usually says 50-51.
silly old fossil wrote:
Coe ran 46.89 to place 2nd in 1979 UK 400 champs. That is a fact; that is a result.
Ovett ran 47.6 as a 17 yo to win 1973 UK junior 400 champs. That is a fact; that is a result.
All the rest is pure speculation, whether it be Webb, Cram, Bekele, El G.
And don't try to pass off 1600 meter relay legs as legit times....again speculation and trigger happy stopwatch coaches.
If El G is so blazing fast, why didn't he ever race an 800 or 1,000 meter race during his 10 year international career. I put more stock in Lagat's 2:16.9 BECAUSE HE ACTUALLY RAN IT.
These guys purposely don't race under distance because they don't want their competitors to see their actual base speed.
Chad Hall has run a 51.77 400....that is a fact....a RESULT.
All the rest is coulda....shoulda.
Ventolin is an idiot. You, sir, are NOT an idiot.
midwesta wrote:
I think this question has been asked about 1000 times on this forum, and every time people think that Bekele could run 47 seconds because of the way he finishes his 5k-10k. That's just not the way it works. As one of the other posters notes, these guys are absurdly efficient and are aerobic beasts, so when they need to drop the hammer, they can get pretty damn close to their top speed. I'd be surprised if he could go under 49.
i'm glad there are a few of us guys in general agreement
when i first tried gebs/kennster's estimates i was quite surprised they indicated 50/51, but same calc gave generally acceptable figures for likes of coe/ovett/cram & i woud say hicham ( a poster a few years ago asked him this at a book-signing in oregon ( it's in the archives ) & answer he got was "about 48" - it's in the archives )
i coudn't understand why majority of 400 times look near spot on ( & coe/hicham etc aren't broke-dicks ) whereas just the 2 thopys had the surprising results
either that calc doesn't work for thopys ( but does for limeys, yankees & 'roccans ) or they truely do have 50+ speed
You're incorrect. El Guerrouj DID run a 1000m - 2:16.85 at Nice, early on in his career in 1995. He finished 6th.
Who knows exactly why he did not run under-distance that often. It may have been not revealing anything, but another legitimate reason was that he could make a lot more money running 1500's since the 1500 during the 90s and 00s was commonly a GP event.
Vermonster wrote:
You're incorrect. El Guerrouj DID run a 1000m - 2:16.85 at Nice, early on in his career in 1995. He finished 6th.
Who knows exactly why he did not run under-distance that often. It may have been not revealing anything, but another legitimate reason was that he could make a lot more money running 1500's since the 1500 during the 90s and 00s was commonly a GP event.
10 years @ 10 races per year = 100 races and you can only come up with ONE lousy 1,000 meter.....talk about nitpickin'.
ventolin wrote:
2 thopys had the surprising results
either that calc doesn't work for thopys ( but does for limeys, yankees & 'roccans ) or they truely do have 50+ speed
You must mean Ethopians, Englishmen, Americans and Morrocans?
"thopys" sounds like a type of bird.
it may be nitpickin', but it's a RESULT.