Slim chance Hall can medal. Beijing will be hot/humid. Hall is a cold weather runner.
Slim chance Hall can medal. Beijing will be hot/humid. Hall is a cold weather runner.
Ryan is a great runner, but you are only in 2:06 shape when you have run 2:06
Tedjo wrote:
The heat and humidity in Beijing might not help him. Big Bear, Stanford, and Mammoth are not exactly humid. His training better take the Olympic conditions into account, or he will not be medaling.
Gotta agree with this. The conditions in Bejing will be very different. Based on where they train, I'd guess Sell has a better shot at gutting out in a hot/humid race right now. Hall had better come down from the mountain and get a little time in the sauna.
He's from the same camp as Meb, and he was doing his long runs in sweats, at about noon in Chula Vista in the months leading up Athens. I'm sure Ryan will be following a similar acclimatization.
It's almost unfathomable that Hall dropped a 44:12 15k from 25k to 40k, essentially a 47:25 for 10 miles, at the end of the race with plenty left in the tank as anyone could plainly see.
Noon in the summer in So Cal is not the same as noon in the Summer in Beijing. Hall should train in Houston during the summer, or someplace like that where no able person wants to live.
somehomodude wrote:
I truly believe that Ryan Hall is fated to win a medal, perhaps even the gold medal, at the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games. After several years of struggle/stagnation, Ryan fulfilled his destiny by moving up to the marathon... and how, with the love of God and his beautiful wife behind him, he is about to show the world what all of those long runs, starting with his first 15 miler around Big Bear Lake, have been for.
Ryan is easily in 2:06 shape right now, if not 2:05 shape. Think about it. He cruised the last couple of miles at the trials. He could've EASILY run 2:07 had the first 5k been a solid pace and had he pushed it the last couple of miles. And this was not an easy course folks! 2:07 on a tough course without rabbits! Think about it.
He broke away from the field with a 4:32 mile for goodness' sake! That is seriously Geb/Tergat/WR-setting Khannounchi-esque. I think it's time we wake up and realize that as inexperienced as Hall is at the longer distances and as foolish as it might seem to make such a claim, Ryan really does have that kind of potential at the marathon! Yes, I am comparing Ryan Hall to Gebreselassie. Could he beat Geb in a marathon, assuming perfect conditions, no injuries, etc., today? Almost certainly not. Could he beat the Emperor in the rough conditions of Beijing with another year's worth of training under his belt? HE JUST MIGHT!
A year ago, I couldn't imagine a more exciting runner in America than Alan Webb, but wow, the member of the "Big Three" who seemed least likely to succeed for a while there has come back with a frickin' vengeance!
Sorry, I talked to God yesterday and he's pulling for the Kenyans in Beijing. Hall might get 4th or 5th, depends if Geb runs the marathon or not, because God asks him for running tips and owes him a medal.
Great run over the weekend, certainly. However, let's put it in perspective.
Going in to the Athens Olympics there were several sub 2.09 marathoners on the start line, just as there will be in 08. Winning a Championship marathon is tactical, times are not the issue, knowing how to race the best is.
Good luck to the guy but in my eyes it will take a couple more solid marathons (against some quality competition) before he can be cosidered for any part of the podium. He should come and run London next April.
They had a plan for Deena and Meb in 2004 and it clearly worked. I have no doubt the same people will take care of Ryan.
Who carez if he's in 2:06 shape. Beijing will probably be a 2:10-2:11 win. it's gonna be awful.
Even if he doesn't medal I will nevery forget watching that race on Saturday. I was so juiced after watching him run. That was until I got home from work and read about the other Ryan.
I felt like I was watching Gretzky play hockey of Jordan play basketball. Just in another league.
Frits wrote:
Noon in the summer in So Cal is not the same as noon in the Summer in Beijing. Hall should train in Houston during the summer, or someplace like that where no able person wants to live.
Huntsville, TX would be better; where they have that big ultra trail run. Miles & miles of rolling dirt roads & trails.
He doesn't need altitude work after April.
Tedjo wrote:
The heat and humidity in Beijing might not help him. Big Bear, Stanford, and Mammoth are not exactly humid. His training better take the Olympic conditions into account, or he will not be medaling.
Check out the results of the Houston half marathon.
I think he runs faster in humidity. Problem with Beijing is that it can be anything, but its usually dry and hot in the summer during August. I would say the closest thing to Beijing is southern California. But with way worse air conditions.
I think he'll do fine, but he should be concerned about it. Obviously, its not going to effect Haile very much, but Haile is old, Hall is young.
I would love for the last 10 miles to be just them duking it out with each other. That would be epic-
Sagarin wrote:
As someone astutely pointed out yesterday, but for the first 5k "warmup," Hall ran a 2:07:25 pace for the last 37+ kilometers. And that was without competition at the end on a rolling course. So, yes, to say Ryan Hall is in 2:07 shape is a vast understatement.
" a vast understatement" ?? Um, no. It's a probably accurate statement (on a flat course with perfect conditions/pace), but "vast understatement" ? Hardly.
And even if he is in mid 2:07's shape, Haile is in mid 2:04's shape. 3 minutes is huge. If it isn't, then I guess Ritz wasn't far behind Hall at all, being only 2 minutes back.
(what do you think, that Hall could have run 2:05 if everything went right yesterday[flatter course, more even pace, more competition] ? I highly doubt it)
get that boy to austin, tx next summer!
remember what you americans said about alan webb before the world champs....
i totally think he should do this and that and the other thing because obviously he wasnt totally prepared for the race he just devoured with that beautiful stride of his.
im sure hall will train appropriately and be perfectly fine come 2008.
MNGuy wrote:
I felt like I was watching Gretzky play hockey of Jordan play basketball. Just in another league.
No joke. He looks like a gazelle out there, doesn't he? Just an amazing talent.
Here's hoping things go well for him over the next 9 months or so of training.
Yeah, he can definently beat Geb and Tergat for the gold.
I actually think hall has more talent than geb or tergat. This kid has a big, strong, powerfull, relaxed, fast stride. Noone on this earth has more talent, and his newfound realizations about life, ... this kid is the best.
i am in awe of his dedication, from training day in and out, to struggling through stanford, to inner growth as a christian. Hall is not even getting started at doing the things he is born to do. I really am in awe.