So how will Lance do this year in the TdF?

It's too bad you all don't follow cycling more closely. It's a great sport, with complex team tactics.

Lance knows what he is talking about when he lauds Ullrich. And Ullrich is sneakily rounding into form. He hasn't had a weight problem. He came into the season thinner than usual and was pretty much dominating the Tour de Suisse climbs by the end this year. The only question about Jan is whether or not he is ready yet for a three week tour. After so much time off the bike, the chances of a "jour sans" (a bad day) are high. Hands down, Ullrich has more talent than anyone else in the peloton.

Simoni doesn't stand a chance. He can't time trial well enough to run with the big horses and he also has an overinflated sense of how fast he has been climbing. Lance's advisor, the unjustly infamous Dr. Ferrari, has developed a system for judging fitness by timing the rate of ascension of a climber up a mountain pass. (It is a lot like the table Jack Daniels has for comparing treadmill efforts at different speeds and pitches.) In short, one can take any of Simoni's times on the climbs in the giro, plug it into this formula, and come up with a pretty good sense of his overall fitness (VO2max + LT + economy). I think Lance has done this with Simoni because he was downright dismissive of Simoni when the latter mouthed off about how he was going to challenge Lance in the mountains. The bottom line with Lance is he never is disrespectful of competitors, for fear he will give them psychological motivation. To dismiss Simoni as he did suggests that he knows he can take him at will.

The surprises of the tour will lie with Iban Mayo (who looked good against Lance in the Dauphine Libere a week ago) and with Tyler Hamilton (who looked like crap at same.) Can Mayo hold that form? Can Tyler find his? If the answer is yes to both then these two will be fighting it out with Jan and with Beloki for the other places on the podium.

Hands down, Lance wins if he doesn't crash.

And the best news of all is that I'll be over there, to watch it all live.

To start off, Ullrich is one of my favorite cyclists. He's an incredible competitor. But most of the praise that everyone gives him is a little too based on what he did in 1996 and 97, and on his TT OG and WC performances. In the past 5 years, he hasn't performed well in any grand tour. When he finished 2nd to Lance And I would dispute that he "dominated" the climbs in the Tour de Suisse. He definately looked comfortable riding in the lead pack, but he never really attacked (at least that I saw in on live TV). I just don't see Jan being strong enough yet to perform with the consistency that you need to finish on the podium. Of course, there is always the chance that he's bluffing about his fitness level and is ready to challenge Lance.

I agree that Simoni may be in for a surprise in the TdF. The TdF climbs play out differently than those in the Giro, when about 30 guys wait until the last 5k to attack. His climbing abilities are overrated (mostly by himself), and he is a notoriously poor time-trialist. Nevertheless, with Jan not 100%, I don't see any clear "2nd best" riders

Hamilton has looked like shit since Leige-Bastigone-Leige (aside from Romandie). I'm skeptical how he'll ride in July, but he's been 100% focused on the TdF for the first time in his career, so we'll see.

I love endurance sports and like to watch biking, but I don't understand the whole team thing. Can I get some insights. Pardon my ignorance.

I could go on for ages about the team thing but I'll try to be brief. Here's a primer:

1) The advantages of drafting in cycling are such (about 30% savings behind a single rider, much more behind a pack of riders) that it is impossible for someone to "go it alone" in a stage race. (Historically they did, but that was long ago.)

2) Each team has nine riders. It's a feudal structure. The best teams have a single rider who is designated the G.C. rider. That is, he's riding for overall placement (the general classification). Lance Armstrong is such a rider. So is Jan Ullrich, etc. Depending on what the team hopes to accomplish, they might have an additional specialist or two among the nine (a climber to win mountain stages or a sprinter to win flat stages.) Generally the less hope a team has to win the whole tour, the more likely they are to have a few specialists who, on any given day, ride as though they were the team leader. (See more below.)

3) Most good times have three other kinds of riders: climbers, rollers, and domestiques. These aren't mutually exclusive categories. Their various jobs depend on the circumstances of the race, the team, the placement of the leader. It's too complicated to go into here.

4) A tour is a three week stage race. It's more gruelling than anything runners ever face. The best analogy is that each rider races a marathon every day for 21 days straight.

5) The race map has three basic kinds of stages (flat stages, mountain stages, and time trials.) The overall podium of the race is determined on the steepest climbs and in the time trials when the big guns like Lance Armstrong eventually crack the rest of the field. So to finish up, I'll give three basic scenarios to help you see how a team works together. And to make it even simpler, let's assume that Lance is not yet leading the race.

1) a mountain stage: They usually start with a gentle lead-in. It's the unspoken responsibility of the team of whoever currently holds the overall lead to try to keep the race together. Why? Well, a very motivated rider can get a big advantage in the mountains by going balls out and eating into their reserves. Even a single stage win carries a lot of prestige. So a rider who is way down in the G.C. might be allowed to ride ahead of the peloton. Up to a point. If the lead gets too big and he begins to threaten the overall lead, then the current leader's team comes to the front of the peloton and begins to hammer to bring bag the breakaway. For Lance and USPS, they'll just sit in, usually, (or maybe help out depending on tactics). Lance won't do any work. He will definitely sit in. The rollers/domestiques will bring him food/drink and block him from the wind. They'll also ride around him to protect him from other riders/crashes as much as possible. Let's say they arrive at the final couple of climbs of the day. Lance wants to crack the field. His climbers/lieutenants will come to the front of the peloton and begin to set a very hard pace. They'll ride above their limit with the knowledge that they aren't going to ride hard all the way to the top. They merely want to put the hurt on. Only the fittest G. C. riders will be able to ride in the slipstream on this pace setting while still having something left to give. Eventually, the lieutenants will be burned up, and there will be only a handful of the G. C. favorites left. They then go mano a mano.

2) flat stage--let's imagine that Lance won the mountain stage and now leads the race. He doesn't have the raw power to outsprint the sprinters. He won't aim to win a flat stage. However, he doesn't want any of his close competitors to get in front of him on the day. The best way to keep this from happening is to send your rollers up front and have them "ride tempo" on the front. The goal is to ride fast enough to discourage big breakaway attacks, except among those looking to use themselves up for one day of glory. It would be impossible for Lance to track down all the other riders. So his team does it for him.

3) time trial--the race of truth. These are individual efforts over a course, against the clock. No drafting. The only way team tactics play in an individual time trial is that Lance can ask certain riders to ride certain speeds over the course to help him get a sense of what is physically possible. Also, although not every year, there is also a team time trial where the teams ride together over a course against the clock. USPS has tended to do very well in these because they practice pacelining (efficiently taking turns leading while the others draft). A well-run TTT is a beautiful thing to watch.

Okay, that's enough. All of this is vastly oversimplified. So no digs please. It's a start. The best way to figure it out is to watch on TV. OLN will have live coverage, as well as rebroadcasts, every day of the Tour.

I say Lance wins it (the Tour) by 6 and a half minutes

Did lance and his wife (Kristin) really reconcile or is that just rumor? I hope they did.

Wow, I knew this was some serious stuff, but wow!! Thanks for the info.

One thing I've never understood is why a team sends one or two guys to chase down a breakaway. It's not as if the chasing riders are pulling the whole peleton--they go alone to try and catch the escapee. How does this benefit the team leader, now stuck in the peleton with fewer teammates and still just as far behind the breakaway?

I remember from Lance's book, he said that Hamilton and Livingston's jobs (they were teammates at the time) were to chase down those breaks. If a rider were to attack, they would follow after him and "sit on his wheel." I think the idea was to slow down the attacker, but I don't understand how this works. Armstrong would remain in the peleton, so it's not as if they were helping him catch up.

ebrunner,

as soon as hose two catch the break, they will sit on the back and disrupt the tempo of the group. Usually the members of break aways will take 30sec-2 min "pulls" at the front of the break (called pace lining - you see the best example of his during the team time trials), and smoothly rotate to the back. If there are two people who are just sitting on, this disrupts the smoothsness of the flow as they will contribute no work when they get to the front of each rotation.

Additionally the riders that caught the break will hurt the morale of the riders because they have been shown that they can be caught. Oftn youwill see an unfortune break be caught just meters in front of the finishline. They will have been out in front all day going 27 miles an hour, while the break will hun them down traveling the last 2 hours of th race at 40 miles an hour.

Whoever said that it is like running a marathon each day, I would say that is hyperbole. Its much more like a combination of 5 5ks; 12 10ks; 2 marathons; and a mile; with an 800 at the beginning known as the prolouge. All of his will done at 80% maybe with the exception of 3 or 4 days where 100% effort might be required. So if we take world class runners this would be something like:

800 - 1:45

3 5ks at 14:30, with a 54 sec last lap

2 5ks at 13:40

10 10ks at 30 min with a 54 sec last lap

2 10ks at 28:00 min

mile at sub 4

So imagine running that with 2 rest days built in...

i'm gonna go with:

1) Lance

2) Simoni 3:??

3) Ullrich 5:??

4) Beloki 6:??

Simoni looked pretty good in the giro d'italia; he's a good climber. I think it will be closer than a lot of people say but i still have to predict lance as no. 1. GOOD LUCK LANCE!!!

Nice summary.

I watched the T d F and eventually all the stage races for the past eight years. Only in the last couple of of years have I finally figured out exactly what the hell is going on. Having Lance at the front is great but I think I'd watch these races anyway. You get addicted to them like soap operas. Sort of a NASCAR for fitness fanatics.

My prediction: Lance will win, Joseba Beloki will finish way ahead of Gilberto Simoni.

This analogy of distances doesn't work because it takes away the gruelling aspect of tour riding. You are in the saddle everyday (except the two rest days) for around 5-6 hours. Unlike the Giro and the Vuelta, everybody rides hard every day in the Tour. Have you ever ridden on a bike for six hours in a row? You know what your ass feels like after that? Add in that you are going 25 mph, dodging crashes, crashing, getting up from crashing, etc. and it's a lot more than a 5k on any given day. The marathon is the only example that fits. True, most cycling is mostly aerobic with a few hard efforts at key moments. But it's a long long slog. My back and neck hurt just thinking about it. So I'll stop.

Whoever said that it is like running a marathon each day, I would say that is hyperbole. Its much more like a combination of 5 5ks; 12 10ks; 2 marathons; and a mile; with an 800 at the beginning known as the prolouge. All of his will done at 80% maybe with the exception of 3 or 4 days where 100% effort might be required. So if we take world class runners this would be something like:

800 - 1:45

3 5ks at 14:30, with a 54 sec last lap

2 5ks at 13:40

10 10ks at 30 min with a 54 sec last lap

2 10ks at 28:00 min

mile at sub 4

So imagine running that with 2 rest days built in...[/quote]

i gotta disagree...its very much like a marthon every day....the shorter stages (other than the TT's) are at least 3 hours long! i dont care how hard you're going on ur bike its still harder than a 5k. the famour climb to mount ventoux last year took nearly 6 hours!!! mountain stages take over 5 hours and often feature as many as 5 climbs that can last for over 10 km. last year 36 riders nearly 20% of the 198 that started the tour dropped out before the finish. its obviously one of the toughest physical activities someone can do (the ironman is the only other competition that comes close that i know of) and i can agree with the statement that its basically like running 21 marathons in 23 days.

I thought Lance was doing some other chick on the side behind his wife's back? That takes more energy than driving a stick shift.

A good prediction IMHO. I would like to see Ulrich do so well. If he does decide to exert himself to that degree, I think he could be third or second.

More like AVEraging twenty, 40 milers, no?

Ulrich just finished a respectable 7th at the Tour De Suisse. Simoni and Beloki are very simliar riders both should place in the top 5.. I think Tyler Hamilton will challenge, along with Aitor Gonzales and Santago Bertio, although those two can be inconsistent...

Frank, nice summary of cycle tactics. The meager amount of group cycling I've done gives me an appreciation for what goes on in the peleton and how incredibly fit those guys are.

I'll take Lance to win and there'll be the usual surprises, drug dialogue, speculation and histrionics. I wonder how the French will take to the USPS team...

absolutely love teh mountain stages.