I think the easy correlation is just to take the quality of the 3000m mark and auto-translate it to the 5000m, apples to apples. But it's way more nuanced than that.
Sure we have seen almost all great 3000m runners be great over the 5000m. Komen, Kiptanui and Aouita were all 3000m WR holders that at a point held the 5000m mark. Geb at a point had run the 2nd fastest ever, Bekele was 6th.
But the other trend we have seen with sub 12.40 performers in history is that of the 6 men to ever run under 12.40, 3 of them were also the world 10'000m record holder and another, Yomif Kejelcha, sits 7AT in the 10'000 at 26.31, is a 2 time world champ medallist in the 10 and was the half marathon world record holder until about a month ago. Then you have Gebrhiwet who ran 26.48 back in 2019 and has a 57.41 half to his name and no performance of note under 5000m (he's run 7.30 a couple of times), no mile/1500 on his record.
The outlier of the sub 12.40 crew really is Komen at 3.29/3.46 - but he's also still second all-time over 3000m.
Point being, I don't think it's a stretch to say that to be a 12.35/36 candidate you need to have extremely high competence over 10000m. Over distance ability is far more important to that level of running than under distance ability. Unless you can run right around that 26.30 mark for the 10000m, I don't think you have much chance of breaking the WR in the 5000m, or even being a 12.35 candidate. Jakob is more on the Komen side of physiology than the Cheptegei, Bekele, even Gebrhiwet/Kejelcha side. It's his 1500/mile ability primarily driving his 3000m, just as it was Komens and his level is much higher (3 seconds faster in both distances). Not sure Jakob is as good over 10000m as history would show you need to be to run the times some people are imagining.
12.22 is clearly absurd. 12.30? - if he was at WR level over the 10000m (and well under it - in the 26.0X's), so no.
12.35.36? I guess we are assuming that he'd have run a few 5000's at this sort of tempo prior (sub 12.40) because that's a vastly underrated part of this too - I can't say for sure, but I don't think so either. He might have run in the 12.36's, low 12.37's - so in the Gebrhiwet/Bekele zone. But I would have been stunned if he was capable of the WR.
On that topic, some of the "WR for sure" stuff? The disrespect for WRs is honestly comical. Like Jakob was just going to rock up having never gone after a 5000m ever (still as of today 12.48PR) and just rip off a 12.32? Even before that 3000m performance he'd run the 7.23 as part of a double at the DL final (in crappy conditions), the 2 mile where he had run like 7.21.6 for the final 3000m of it (after the 218m start) - he had practice at that level of running over that specific distance. The 3000m has made massive jumps in the last 5 years because the shift in training philosophy for the 1500/mile has bought those elite guys to the 3000m discipline. It hasn't bought the elite 5000m runners down to it. Big, big difference.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
Jakob is more on the Komen side of physiology than the Cheptegei, Bekele, even Gebrhiwet/Kejelcha side. It's his 1500/mile ability primarily driving his 3000m, just as it was Komens and his level is much higher (3 seconds faster in both distances). Not sure Jakob is as good over 10000m as history would show you need to be to run the times some people are imagining.
Not true according to jakob himself. According to him his best event is/will be the half marathon. 🤔🤷♂️🙄
This post was edited 53 seconds after it was posted.
Reason provided:
Sp
I think the easy correlation is just to take the quality of the 3000m mark and auto-translate it to the 5000m, apples to apples. But it's way more nuanced than that.
Sure we have seen almost all great 3000m runners be great over the 5000m. Komen, Kiptanui and Aouita were all 3000m WR holders that at a point held the 5000m mark. Geb at a point had run the 2nd fastest ever, Bekele was 6th.
But the other trend we have seen with sub 12.40 performers in history is that of the 6 men to ever run under 12.40, 3 of them were also the world 10'000m record holder and another, Yomif Kejelcha, sits 7AT in the 10'000 at 26.31, is a 2 time world champ medallist in the 10 and was the half marathon world record holder until about a month ago. Then you have Gebrhiwet who ran 26.48 back in 2019 and has a 57.41 half to his name and no performance of note under 5000m (he's run 7.30 a couple of times), no mile/1500 on his record.
The outlier of the sub 12.40 crew really is Komen at 3.29/3.46 - but he's also still second all-time over 3000m.
Point being, I don't think it's a stretch to say that to be a 12.35/36 candidate you need to have extremely high competence over 10000m. Over distance ability is far more important to that level of running than under distance ability. Unless you can run right around that 26.30 mark for the 10000m, I don't think you have much chance of breaking the WR in the 5000m, or even being a 12.35 candidate. Jakob is more on the Komen side of physiology than the Cheptegei, Bekele, even Gebrhiwet/Kejelcha side. It's his 1500/mile ability primarily driving his 3000m, just as it was Komens and his level is much higher (3 seconds faster in both distances). Not sure Jakob is as good over 10000m as history would show you need to be to run the times some people are imagining.
12.22 is clearly absurd. 12.30? - if he was at WR level over the 10000m (and well under it - in the 26.0X's), so no.
12.35.36? I guess we are assuming that he'd have run a few 5000's at this sort of tempo prior (sub 12.40) because that's a vastly underrated part of this too - I can't say for sure, but I don't think so either. He might have run in the 12.36's, low 12.37's - so in the Gebrhiwet/Bekele zone. But I would have been stunned if he was capable of the WR.
On that topic, some of the "WR for sure" stuff? The disrespect for WRs is honestly comical. Like Jakob was just going to rock up having never gone after a 5000m ever (still as of today 12.48PR) and just rip off a 12.32? Even before that 3000m performance he'd run the 7.23 as part of a double at the DL final (in crappy conditions), the 2 mile where he had run like 7.21.6 for the final 3000m of it (after the 218m start) - he had practice at that level of running over that specific distance. The 3000m has made massive jumps in the last 5 years because the shift in training philosophy for the 1500/mile has bought those elite guys to the 3000m discipline. It hasn't bought the elite 5000m runners down to it. Big, big difference.
The nuance is that in the past there were a lot more 800/1500m guys than 5k/10k. The 1500mbguys who ran a 10k like Webb and Auotia did fine. And it isn't like Komenbwas slow over 10k. He just didn't run it.
We never saw prime Jacob in a 5k. He basically just ran some championship races. 12:30 is up at the upper end of what was likely and something like 12:40 was the lower. And on between we are guessing.
Personally think wave lights would have helped out a bunch of the past 5k record holders as they often had some funky pacing.and the margin of error is so small when looking for sub 12:40s.
I think the easy correlation is just to take the quality of the 3000m mark and auto-translate it to the 5000m, apples to apples. But it's way more nuanced than that.
Sure we have seen almost all great 3000m runners be great over the 5000m. Komen, Kiptanui and Aouita were all 3000m WR holders that at a point held the 5000m mark. Geb at a point had run the 2nd fastest ever, Bekele was 6th.
But the other trend we have seen with sub 12.40 performers in history is that of the 6 men to ever run under 12.40, 3 of them were also the world 10'000m record holder and another, Yomif Kejelcha, sits 7AT in the 10'000 at 26.31, is a 2 time world champ medallist in the 10 and was the half marathon world record holder until about a month ago. Then you have Gebrhiwet who ran 26.48 back in 2019 and has a 57.41 half to his name and no performance of note under 5000m (he's run 7.30 a couple of times), no mile/1500 on his record.
The outlier of the sub 12.40 crew really is Komen at 3.29/3.46 - but he's also still second all-time over 3000m.
Point being, I don't think it's a stretch to say that to be a 12.35/36 candidate you need to have extremely high competence over 10000m. Over distance ability is far more important to that level of running than under distance ability. Unless you can run right around that 26.30 mark for the 10000m, I don't think you have much chance of breaking the WR in the 5000m, or even being a 12.35 candidate. Jakob is more on the Komen side of physiology than the Cheptegei, Bekele, even Gebrhiwet/Kejelcha side. It's his 1500/mile ability primarily driving his 3000m, just as it was Komens and his level is much higher (3 seconds faster in both distances). Not sure Jakob is as good over 10000m as history would show you need to be to run the times some people are imagining.
12.22 is clearly absurd. 12.30? - if he was at WR level over the 10000m (and well under it - in the 26.0X's), so no.
12.35.36? I guess we are assuming that he'd have run a few 5000's at this sort of tempo prior (sub 12.40) because that's a vastly underrated part of this too - I can't say for sure, but I don't think so either. He might have run in the 12.36's, low 12.37's - so in the Gebrhiwet/Bekele zone. But I would have been stunned if he was capable of the WR.
On that topic, some of the "WR for sure" stuff? The disrespect for WRs is honestly comical. Like Jakob was just going to rock up having never gone after a 5000m ever (still as of today 12.48PR) and just rip off a 12.32? Even before that 3000m performance he'd run the 7.23 as part of a double at the DL final (in crappy conditions), the 2 mile where he had run like 7.21.6 for the final 3000m of it (after the 218m start) - he had practice at that level of running over that specific distance. The 3000m has made massive jumps in the last 5 years because the shift in training philosophy for the 1500/mile has bought those elite guys to the 3000m discipline. It hasn't bought the elite 5000m runners down to it. Big, big difference.
I usually agree with you but I don't here. This is just my opinion of course. But we all said this before the 3000. No way he breaks the WR. 7:21-7:22 at the absolute best. He focuses too much on the 1500. Etc, etc, blah blah blah. Nobody on this site gave him a 1% chance of running the WR. Then guess what? He OBLITERATED it, when it was 80 degrees, windy, and humid. Not only that, he obliterates 12:36-12:45 guys in WC races by absolutely destroying them the last 600. It's not bc of his leg speed, it's because he has less lactate with 600m to go in those races, running AT THE SAME PACE. He has a higher LT than 12:36-12:45 guys. He runs 7:17.55 in the 3k for gods sakes, but he can't set a WR in the 5k? The 3k and 5k correlate very, very well together. I don't see any problem with him, that day, on that day, running faster than 12:35. We can keep doing this every time he goes for a WR. The weeks leading up with no way, not a chance, and then he obliterates it. Imagine being a 3:26.73/7:17.55 guy and not being able to break 12:35.60? I can't.
Not to belabor, but on the other post, people saying Chep at 12:35.60 can't break 7:20 in a 3k. You can't have it both ways. The argument is Chep is an aerobic/LT monster. So is Jakob! Jakob is an aerobic/LT monster, who just so happens to be a 3:26.73/7:17.55 guy. If there is a better fit for a sub-12:35 5k runner I cannot possibly imagine one then.
The nuance is that in the past there were a lot more 800/1500m guys than 5k/10k. The 1500mbguys who ran a 10k like Webb and Auotia did fine. And it isn't like Komenbwas slow over 10k. He just didn't run it.
We never saw prime Jacob in a 5k. He basically just ran some championship races. 12:30 is up at the upper end of what was likely and something like 12:40 was the lower. And on between we are guessing.
Personally think wave lights would have helped out a bunch of the past 5k record holders as they often had some funky pacing.and the margin of error is so small when looking for sub 12:40s.
I don't quite understand your nuance here.
Yes there have always been more 8/15 guys than 5k/10k guys - and it's no different now except it's more about 1500/3000m runners (the 800 guys pure specialists) with the absolute top guys like Jakob and Hocker prospering at major championships over 5000m because of the way the races have been run.
There are no more or less 5/10k guys now than in the past and that doesn't change the fact that when we get down under 12.40, half of the 6 athletes were 10000m WR holders and one of them was even the world half marathon record holder.
No we never saw prime Jakob in a 5000m. But does anyone ever ask why that might have been? Not like he didn't have chances to run them. Yes it's possible he was like "I want the 1500m record first and then I'll worry about the 5". It's also possible he knew that despite his physiology working perfectly for these 13.05-15 championship races where he had the anaerobic power to destroy guys off slower tempos, the 5000m record was never actually in play. I feel like I heard him talk a lot more about the 1500 record than he ever did the 5000m. Now I don't know which of the above scenarios is more accurate - the point is nobody does so all these assumptions are just guesses with some hypothesis behind them.
No Komen wasn't slow over 10000m but you can't say "well he only ran 27.38 because he didn't run it". He ran the 10000m twice in Brussels which was globally the premier 10000m race for decades and he was the world junior champion at the distance (in 28.30ish from memory). If he had the ability to run well under 27 he would have.
Wavelight would have been massive for that pre 2010 crew. No disrespect to Cheptegei but he is not the talent Bekele was at their respective bests. Bekele would have run 12.34 low with wavelight, Geb and Komen in the 12.35/6's (Komen high 7.17/low 7.18 in the 3000).
He ran 12:48 after having to solo a few laps to reattach the chasing group to the leaders. He then ran every bend wide for the last four laps. That was a 12:45 race in my opinion, and that’s not even considering the 56 second close. You guys can do the math. Back then that was the 12th fastest time ever and it wasn’t even his prime years. He became a stud over 5000m and it was his only race in a somewhat properly paced race. That year he was likely capable of 7:26-7:27 over 3000m, which is almost exactly equivalent to 12:48 funnily enough. He wasn’t that far behind Kejelcha/Barega/Gebriwhet at the same age at all (he wasn’t 18 when he ran that 12:43 no thanks). He has the talent and still does. Unfortunately injury may make it so that we never see what he was capable of.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
I think the easy correlation is just to take the quality of the 3000m mark and auto-translate it to the 5000m, apples to apples. But it's way more nuanced than that.
Sure we have seen almost all great 3000m runners be great over the 5000m. Komen, Kiptanui and Aouita were all 3000m WR holders that at a point held the 5000m mark. Geb at a point had run the 2nd fastest ever, Bekele was 6th.
But the other trend we have seen with sub 12.40 performers in history is that of the 6 men to ever run under 12.40, 3 of them were also the world 10'000m record holder and another, Yomif Kejelcha, sits 7AT in the 10'000 at 26.31, is a 2 time world champ medallist in the 10 and was the half marathon world record holder until about a month ago. Then you have Gebrhiwet who ran 26.48 back in 2019 and has a 57.41 half to his name and no performance of note under 5000m (he's run 7.30 a couple of times), no mile/1500 on his record.
The outlier of the sub 12.40 crew really is Komen at 3.29/3.46 - but he's also still second all-time over 3000m.
Point being, I don't think it's a stretch to say that to be a 12.35/36 candidate you need to have extremely high competence over 10000m. Over distance ability is far more important to that level of running than under distance ability. Unless you can run right around that 26.30 mark for the 10000m, I don't think you have much chance of breaking the WR in the 5000m, or even being a 12.35 candidate. Jakob is more on the Komen side of physiology than the Cheptegei, Bekele, even Gebrhiwet/Kejelcha side. It's his 1500/mile ability primarily driving his 3000m, just as it was Komens and his level is much higher (3 seconds faster in both distances). Not sure Jakob is as good over 10000m as history would show you need to be to run the times some people are imagining.
12.22 is clearly absurd. 12.30? - if he was at WR level over the 10000m (and well under it - in the 26.0X's), so no.
12.35.36? I guess we are assuming that he'd have run a few 5000's at this sort of tempo prior (sub 12.40) because that's a vastly underrated part of this too - I can't say for sure, but I don't think so either. He might have run in the 12.36's, low 12.37's - so in the Gebrhiwet/Bekele zone. But I would have been stunned if he was capable of the WR.
On that topic, some of the "WR for sure" stuff? The disrespect for WRs is honestly comical. Like Jakob was just going to rock up having never gone after a 5000m ever (still as of today 12.48PR) and just rip off a 12.32? Even before that 3000m performance he'd run the 7.23 as part of a double at the DL final (in crappy conditions), the 2 mile where he had run like 7.21.6 for the final 3000m of it (after the 218m start) - he had practice at that level of running over that specific distance. The 3000m has made massive jumps in the last 5 years because the shift in training philosophy for the 1500/mile has bought those elite guys to the 3000m discipline. It hasn't bought the elite 5000m runners down to it. Big, big difference.
I usually agree with you but I don't here. This is just my opinion of course. But we all said this before the 3000. No way he breaks the WR. 7:21-7:22 at the absolute best. He focuses too much on the 1500. Etc, etc, blah blah blah. Nobody on this site gave him a 1% chance of running the WR. Then guess what? He OBLITERATED it, when it was 80 degrees, windy, and humid. Not only that, he obliterates 12:36-12:45 guys in WC races by absolutely destroying them the last 600. It's not bc of his leg speed, it's because he has less lactate with 600m to go in those races, running AT THE SAME PACE. He has a higher LT than 12:36-12:45 guys. He runs 7:17.55 in the 3k for gods sakes, but he can't set a WR in the 5k? The 3k and 5k correlate very, very well together. I don't see any problem with him, that day, on that day, running faster than 12:35. We can keep doing this every time he goes for a WR. The weeks leading up with no way, not a chance, and then he obliterates it. Imagine being a 3:26.73/7:17.55 guy and not being able to break 12:35.60? I can't.
I don't remember a ton of people saying sub 7:20 was impossible for Jakob before he did it. Looking back, most people thought he would. He beats the 12:45 guys because he's a 3:26 guy running at 13:20 pace until the last 400m. I think he can go faster than 12:45, but I don't think you know ball based on the reason's you've given.
I usually agree with you but I don't here. This is just my opinion of course. But we all said this before the 3000. No way he breaks the WR. 7:21-7:22 at the absolute best. He focuses too much on the 1500. Etc, etc, blah blah blah. Nobody on this site gave him a 1% chance of running the WR. Then guess what? He OBLITERATED it, when it was 80 degrees, windy, and humid. Not only that, he obliterates 12:36-12:45 guys in WC races by absolutely destroying them the last 600. It's not bc of his leg speed, it's because he has less lactate with 600m to go in those races, running AT THE SAME PACE. He has a higher LT than 12:36-12:45 guys. He runs 7:17.55 in the 3k for gods sakes, but he can't set a WR in the 5k? The 3k and 5k correlate very, very well together. I don't see any problem with him, that day, on that day, running faster than 12:35. We can keep doing this every time he goes for a WR. The weeks leading up with no way, not a chance, and then he obliterates it. Imagine being a 3:26.73/7:17.55 guy and not being able to break 12:35.60? I can't.
I don't remember a ton of people saying sub 7:20 was impossible for Jakob before he did it. Looking back, most people thought he would. He beats the 12:45 guys because he's a 3:26 guy running at 13:20 pace until the last 400m. I think he can go faster than 12:45, but I don't think you know ball based on the reason's you've given.
Cool story. Then what other indicator do you need, that he can break 12:35, other that doing it, vs. what he's done? What do you need? A guy doing high mileage and double threshold work primarily runs 3:26.73/7:17.55 can't run faster then 12:35?? I don't know ball? Ever read books by Daniels, Gilbert, etc? Ever wonder where their charts came from? If I'm a 3:26.73 guy training the exact same way a 3:28 guy is, and we square off in the 5000, I certainly know which guy I'd rather be.
Not to belabor, but on the other post, people saying Chep at 12:35.60 can't break 7:20 in a 3k. You can't have it both ways. The argument is Chep is an aerobic/LT monster. So is Jakob! Jakob is an aerobic/LT monster, who just so happens to be a 3:26.73/7:17.55 guy. If there is a better fit for a sub-12:35 5k runner I cannot possibly imagine one then.
I usually agree with you but I don't here. This is just my opinion of course. But we all said this before the 3000. No way he breaks the WR. 7:21-7:22 at the absolute best. He focuses too much on the 1500. Etc, etc, blah blah blah. Nobody on this site gave him a 1% chance of running the WR. Then guess what? He OBLITERATED it, when it was 80 degrees, windy, and humid. Not only that, he obliterates 12:36-12:45 guys in WC races by absolutely destroying them the last 600. It's not bc of his leg speed, it's because he has less lactate with 600m to go in those races, running AT THE SAME PACE. He has a higher LT than 12:36-12:45 guys. He runs 7:17.55 in the 3k for gods sakes, but he can't set a WR in the 5k? The 3k and 5k correlate very, very well together. I don't see any problem with him, that day, on that day, running faster than 12:35. We can keep doing this every time he goes for a WR. The weeks leading up with no way, not a chance, and then he obliterates it. Imagine being a 3:26.73/7:17.55 guy and not being able to break 12:35.60? I can't.
I don't remember a ton of people saying sub 7:20 was impossible for Jakob before he did it. Looking back, most people thought he would. He beats the 12:45 guys because he's a 3:26 guy running at 13:20 pace until the last 400m. I think he can go faster than 12:45, but I don't think you know ball based on the reason's you've given.
He does so because of lactate. Runner A: 100 mpw, double threshold, 1500 PR in 3:26. Runner B: 100 mpw, double threshold, 1500 PR in 3:28. Runner A wins every single time in a 5000 because he produces less lactate at the same velocity as Runner B, in any race longer than 1500. Any slower pace is easier for him. This isn't rocket science. I don't understand why more people just don't understand this. This is well understood outside the US. The US coaches for some reason want some other explanation or some other shortcut/reasoning.
I usually agree with you but I don't here. This is just my opinion of course. But we all said this before the 3000. No way he breaks the WR. 7:21-7:22 at the absolute best. He focuses too much on the 1500. Etc, etc, blah blah blah. Nobody on this site gave him a 1% chance of running the WR. Then guess what? He OBLITERATED it, when it was 80 degrees, windy, and humid. Not only that, he obliterates 12:36-12:45 guys in WC races by absolutely destroying them the last 600. It's not bc of his leg speed, it's because he has less lactate with 600m to go in those races, running AT THE SAME PACE. He has a higher LT than 12:36-12:45 guys. He runs 7:17.55 in the 3k for gods sakes, but he can't set a WR in the 5k? The 3k and 5k correlate very, very well together. I don't see any problem with him, that day, on that day, running faster than 12:35. We can keep doing this every time he goes for a WR. The weeks leading up with no way, not a chance, and then he obliterates it. Imagine being a 3:26.73/7:17.55 guy and not being able to break 12:35.60? I can't.
We can agree to disagree, it's only my opinion too.
Regarding the 3000, were you really so bearish? After that 2 mile it was quite obvious he was going to get that 3000 mark, and even more so after that DL final in '23 where he ran 7.23 in a tactical race a day after a 3.43 mile. Don't believe me? Read this thread.
Prior to this I think we all thought that Komens mark would last forever - but a lot changed (surprisingly and for the good). 1500m runners, guys with sub 3.28.0 ability all got there with training also perfectly suited to the 3000m. The distance became more prominent off season (indoors), wavelight and race execution philosophy changed this event in particular in a huge way.
Why he (Jakob) obliterates 12.46-45 guys in slow races? You are right it's not an issue of pure leg speed. But I don't agree it's that he has less lactate in his legs with 600m to go. He just has superior anaerobic capacity and power that he can tap into as a 3.26/3.43/7.17 guy that nobody else does and because the races have been so slow through 3000m (he's never gone through even close to under 8min in any of his wins), the whole field is way under their thresholds and if you want to then make it a mile race, well who is winning that? The 3.26/3.43 guy or the field? He doesn't have less lactate at 3400m than Gebrhiwet or Aregawi - he just has so much more anaerobic power to use from that point forwards.
But fine to disagree on this one. Unfortunately it seems like we might never find out what his potential was either way - especially at his absolute best. Add this the lore of "but what if" track and field debates for the rest of time (what if Ovett never ran into the rail?, what if Kipketer hadn't gone through in 48.3 in Zurich '97 and instead gone 49.0? what if Jakob had run a 5000m at the end of 2024?)
I don't remember a ton of people saying sub 7:20 was impossible for Jakob before he did it. Looking back, most people thought he would. He beats the 12:45 guys because he's a 3:26 guy running at 13:20 pace until the last 400m. I think he can go faster than 12:45, but I don't think you know ball based on the reason's you've given.
Cool story. Then what other indicator do you need, that he can break 12:35, other that doing it, vs. what he's done? What do you need? A guy doing high mileage and double threshold work primarily runs 3:26.73/7:17.55 can't run faster then 12:35?? I don't know ball? Ever read books by Daniels, Gilbert, etc? Ever wonder where their charts came from? If I'm a 3:26.73 guy training the exact same way a 3:28 guy is, and we square off in the 5000, I certainly know which guy I'd rather be.
The same guy who had to start walking in a half marathon after his 3k record?
I usually agree with you but I don't here. This is just my opinion of course. But we all said this before the 3000. No way he breaks the WR. 7:21-7:22 at the absolute best. He focuses too much on the 1500. Etc, etc, blah blah blah. Nobody on this site gave him a 1% chance of running the WR. Then guess what? He OBLITERATED it, when it was 80 degrees, windy, and humid. Not only that, he obliterates 12:36-12:45 guys in WC races by absolutely destroying them the last 600. It's not bc of his leg speed, it's because he has less lactate with 600m to go in those races, running AT THE SAME PACE. He has a higher LT than 12:36-12:45 guys. He runs 7:17.55 in the 3k for gods sakes, but he can't set a WR in the 5k? The 3k and 5k correlate very, very well together. I don't see any problem with him, that day, on that day, running faster than 12:35. We can keep doing this every time he goes for a WR. The weeks leading up with no way, not a chance, and then he obliterates it. Imagine being a 3:26.73/7:17.55 guy and not being able to break 12:35.60? I can't.
We can agree to disagree, it's only my opinion too.
Regarding the 3000, were you really so bearish? After that 2 mile it was quite obvious he was going to get that 3000 mark, and even more so after that DL final in '23 where he ran 7.23 in a tactical race a day after a 3.43 mile. Don't believe me? Read this thread.
Prior to this I think we all thought that Komens mark would last forever - but a lot changed (surprisingly and for the good). 1500m runners, guys with sub 3.28.0 ability all got there with training also perfectly suited to the 3000m. The distance became more prominent off season (indoors), wavelight and race execution philosophy changed this event in particular in a huge way.
Why he (Jakob) obliterates 12.46-45 guys in slow races? You are right it's not an issue of pure leg speed. But I don't agree it's that he has less lactate in his legs with 600m to go. He just has superior anaerobic capacity and power that he can tap into as a 3.26/3.43/7.17 guy that nobody else does and because the races have been so slow through 3000m (he's never gone through even close to under 8min in any of his wins), the whole field is way under their thresholds and if you want to then make it a mile race, well who is winning that? The 3.26/3.43 guy or the field? He doesn't have less lactate at 3400m than Gebrhiwet or Aregawi - he just has so much more anaerobic power to use from that point forwards.
But fine to disagree on this one. Unfortunately it seems like we might never find out what his potential was either way - especially at his absolute best. Add this the lore of "but what if" track and field debates for the rest of time (what if Ovett never ran into the rail?, what if Kipketer hadn't gone through in 48.3 in Zurich '97 and instead gone 49.0? what if Jakob had run a 5000m at the end of 2024?)
I'm not being bearish, and I stated it was my opinion only. But I read Addy Ruiter's training logs of Chep, and I know Jakob's training. They are strikingly similar. So that simplifies it for me. Because, at basically the same training, Jakob can run much faster in the 1500 and 3000 than Chep, then my logical conclusion, is Jakob is more talented than Chep. 12:35.60 pace should feel easier, for lack of a better term, than it did for Chep. However slight that is. Whatever "easier" means.
Ok enough of my crap. I respect your opinion - I wasn't saying you were WRONG. So I'll close with this. Imagine the version of Chep on the 5k WR in 9/2020, vs. the version of Jakob, on the 3k WR in 8/2024? Both in the same race, going for the WR. Now that's something to think about, wow.
I think his fitness was probably perfectly geared for a fast 3k going into the race, given he had geared his preparation around a fast 1500 and a tactical 5k for the olympics. I think he could have certainly gotten the world record in a 5000m, but I don't think he would have run the equivalent of a 7:17.
This is one of those things that sounds smart but just isn't.
12:30, OP.
Agreed.
Jakob is a big engine guy, not a 1500-3000 runner who comes up to the 5,000. Broadly speaking, the cornerstones of his training are volume and volume at threshold, not a bunch of targeted work at race pace or 'specific preparation for a tactical 5k.'
If anything, I suspect that his 5000 ability at any given time is likely a bit stronger than his 3000 ability, including if he had raced a 5000 a week before or after his 7:17.
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