Donavan Brazier, Bryce Hoppel, Cian McPhillips, and Mohamed Attaoui are running the 600. Probably because they don't want to finish 2+ second behind Hoey in the 800.
They won't get close to Hoey's 600 record; Hoey will run 1:42.5 or lower in the 800.
Donavan Brazier, Bryce Hoppel, Cian McPhillips, and Mohamed Attaoui are running the 600. Probably because they don't want to finish 2+ second behind Hoey in the 800.
They won't get close to Hoey's 600 record; Hoey will run 1:42.5 or lower in the 800.
My (really shouldn’t be) hot take is that Brazier is a significantly better 400m runner than Hoey, 600m is probably Braziers absolute best event, and that Brazier was in better shape than Hoey last year, and he is sure as hell gonna be in better shape than Hoey this year. I think Brazier has a fantastic chance of getting his record back at Millrose, and I do not think Hoey beats Brazier over any distance 1000m or under this year.
Brazier ran his sub 1:43 world championship title race in Nike Victories (not zoomx victories), without bicarbonate, and without the super shoe/spike training benefits. I think his 1:42 a few years back is worth a 1:41 low-mid. Pre injury and pre all of the new training/racing technology, Brazier was beating the likes of Arop and Hoppel every single time, and those guys both have faster PBs than Hoey.
I think Hoeys got a shot at being top 3 in the US this year, and that’s reliant on either Brazier, Hoppel, or Lutkenhaus having a rough season, and no X factor athlete like Miller or Kessler taking that third spot instead.
I also think there’s a solid chance Hoey crashes and burns after ditching the coach that took him from 1:47 to 1:42. In the 800m, overtraining feels like fitness until it doesn’t.
Donavan Brazier, Bryce Hoppel, Cian McPhillips, and Mohamed Attaoui are running the 600. Probably because they don't want to finish 2+ second behind Hoey in the 800.
They won't get close to Hoey's 600 record; Hoey will run 1:42.5 or lower in the 800.
I’d like to see Hoey show up fresh for outdoor nats, instead of shoqing up after too many races….
Donavan Brazier, Bryce Hoppel, Cian McPhillips, and Mohamed Attaoui are running the 600. Probably because they don't want to finish 2+ second behind Hoey in the 800.
They won't get close to Hoey's 600 record; Hoey will run 1:42.5 or lower in the 800.
My (really shouldn’t be) hot take is that Brazier is a significantly better 400m runner than Hoey, 600m is probably Braziers absolute best event, and that Brazier was in better shape than Hoey last year, and he is sure as hell gonna be in better shape than Hoey this year. I think Brazier has a fantastic chance of getting his record back at Millrose, and I do not think Hoey beats Brazier over any distance 1000m or under this year.
Brazier ran his sub 1:43 world championship title race in Nike Victories (not zoomx victories), without bicarbonate, and without the super shoe/spike training benefits. I think his 1:42 a few years back is worth a 1:41 low-mid. Pre injury and pre all of the new training/racing technology, Brazier was beating the likes of Arop and Hoppel every single time, and those guys both have faster PBs than Hoey.
I think Hoeys got a shot at being top 3 in the US this year, and that’s reliant on either Brazier, Hoppel, or Lutkenhaus having a rough season, and no X factor athlete like Miller or Kessler taking that third spot instead.
I also think there’s a solid chance Hoey crashes and burns after ditching the coach that took him from 1:47 to 1:42. In the 800m, overtraining feels like fitness until it doesn’t.
If Brazier really ran his PR last season on “five months training” as claimed after three years of nothing, he was most assuredly on more than bicarb.
So Hoey is going to run faster than a time set by Kipketer in the EPO era that has stood for decades. So what is he on?
Well, it’s taken over three decades for training to evolve to allow athletes to catch up the dopers of those heady days, so why don’t you tell us Mordecai? Or is your boiler-room shift over, you fake Kiwi you.
I think he was referencing the meet hoey ran the 600 not Milrose or whatever the meet they r running
So you're accusing Hoey of ducking Millrose because he happened to run a race three months earlier? If someone runs Bryan Clay in April but doesn't do Monaco in July, are they also ducking?
Donavan Brazier, Bryce Hoppel, Cian McPhillips, and Mohamed Attaoui are running the 600. Probably because they don't want to finish 2+ second behind Hoey in the 800.
They won't get close to Hoey's 600 record; Hoey will run 1:42.5 or lower in the 800.
My (really shouldn’t be) hot take is that Brazier is a significantly better 400m runner than Hoey, 600m is probably Braziers absolute best event, and that Brazier was in better shape than Hoey last year, and he is sure as hell gonna be in better shape than Hoey this year. I think Brazier has a fantastic chance of getting his record back at Millrose, and I do not think Hoey beats Brazier over any distance 1000m or under this year.
Brazier ran his sub 1:43 world championship title race in Nike Victories (not zoomx victories), without bicarbonate, and without the super shoe/spike training benefits. I think his 1:42 a few years back is worth a 1:41 low-mid. Pre injury and pre all of the new training/racing technology, Brazier was beating the likes of Arop and Hoppel every single time, and those guys both have faster PBs than Hoey.
I think Hoeys got a shot at being top 3 in the US this year, and that’s reliant on either Brazier, Hoppel, or Lutkenhaus having a rough season, and no X factor athlete like Miller or Kessler taking that third spot instead.
I also think there’s a solid chance Hoey crashes and burns after ditching the coach that took him from 1:47 to 1:42. In the 800m, overtraining feels like fitness until it doesn’t.
I would disagree on the 400m ability as of today.
Let's forget block starts, it's anybody guess how the 800m guys respond to those, in an all-out flying 400, Hoey is in the mid to high 46's. Brazier ran 46.1 indoors before his body imploded (so maybe 45 mid potential outdoors) - but that was 2022 and well all know how long he was out.
He's doing what he's doing now off just a natural improvement in strength throughout his twenties (that we all have irrespective of running or not), a much better training philosophy and execution (Peter Julian, not so good) and the little things that help older guys (softer spikes for training), bi-carb etc etc. He's not a 45 point 400m runner anymore. So to say he's significantly better? That is a hot take because it's underestimating Hoeys ability to get round a lap and overestimating Braziers. I think if those guys lined up in a TT together they are probably neck and neck and who ever "wins" it is the guy who feels better on the day or who cares more about it.
As for the 600m record, this has been talked about a lot, but the volume of guys contending at the level maybe just below the record is actually hurting the chances of it falling, not helping. To run these times (and I think this is the case with the 800m outdoor record too btw), you can't really have a race anymore, it has to be a solo TT effort similar to the way Hoey just ran that performance. So over a distance where 4 guys can all get out at the same speed and especially indoors where you need to establish that position on the track, it's not really that conducive to optimal times. The chances of that record going down in this NB meet I don't think are high, but that's just my opinion.
Regarding top 3 in US - Hoey has a chance? Did you mean at the national champs or just ranking wise? He was the US number one last year performance wise (and not just a one-off, he was consistently the fastest US runner across the season). But if we are attaching his prospects to the concept he may just totally implode under the "zero-rest, always-on, 110% all day every day", then we also need to say Bryce Hoppel is probably beginning the natural descent of his career arc at age 28, yes Brazier has missed a ton of time that will add on to his clock but he still is 29 in April so everyone has their extenuating circumstances.
I feel like Hoey will get through the majority of the outdoor season before the stress breaks him (which I agree with you there is a really solid chance it does). But I also think it's going to yield a performance at least as good as last season if not better - something in the high 1.41's
I would push back on the notion that Brazier is a 400/800 guy or 600m specialist. His best 400 is 46.16, not the 44/45 of most 400/800 guys. His 1500 PB of 3:35.85 is pretty close to 46.16, close enough to where I would argue Brazier is a true 800 guy and not an 800/1500 or 400/800 guy. Brazier's 600m is good but I bet if he ran a 1k it would be a pretty similar performance.
Hoey went through 400 in 47.63 in his 600, yes he died to 25.2 after but clearly he is capable of a 46 as well although likely 46 high. I wouldn't say Brazier is a significantly better 400m runner considering the previously mentioned 400/800 runners who have also ran 1:42 or faster