Watched Natasza Dudek win MW regionals in CR time . . . thought for sure she's the NXN favorite.
Then, watched Blair Bartlett win NE regionals and sniff a Tuohy CR . . . thought for sure she's now the NXN favorite.
Then, watched Lily Alder and Averi Lowen win SW & SE regionals, respectively . . . and thought they should be up there competing FTW.
Now, watched Summer Wilson win her CA state meet race in CR time . . . and thought for sure she is now the NXN favorite.
Finally, just watched Jaelyn Williams win her CA state meet race in 3rd fastest time ever with a sub-5 last mile uphill . . . and thought she should be in contention as well.
Now, I don't know.
Anyone I missed?
All six ran on firm footing though Bartlett may have had to run around a few muddy spots on the Bowdoin Park course.
Glendoveer will almost certainly be wet & muddy -- just hope no overnight rains turn NXN into a swim meet like last year.
Guess my pick would be Bartlett. Bowdoin is by far the most difficult of the courses mentioned above, thus providing "resistence" which may be similar in effort to running through soft grass and mud puddles at Glendoveer. Thus, maybe this gives Blair a slight edge. Maybe.
I fully admit that I am biased as a California native but I think Jaelyn Williams takes this in a surprise victory. She might not have the same level of national clout as some of these other girls but she's an absolute dog. She knows how to win.
I'm California biased also because I'm also a native.
I'm picking Wilson because she reminds me of Niko Young when he was in high school.Just a battler. She just powers through the courses. And per Abigail Errington (South Pasadena) Wilson has A "Gnarly" kick. Watching videos of Wilson on HD Runners that statement is true. She is so strong I believe she'll be able to handle any course conditions.
Will any of those athletes running on a muddy course up in Portland decide to pack it in, in preparation for the Championship in San Diego a week later?
Nope, the real HS championship is in Oregon. Cross country should be messy!
However, which scenario is the best prep for the effort it will take to race each step on muddy, soft grass this Saturday?
(1a) Ratcliffe running 17-flat on an extremely hilly course at NXR NE, splitting the first half of the race -- the up-the-mountain part -- faster than Tuohy did when Katelyn ran her 16:45 CR.
or
(1b) Williams running the 4:58 final uphill mile -- after already cresting "Killer Hill" by the 2.1 mile mark -- but on perfect course conditions in perfect weather?
What these two scenarios suggest is, Williams may have he best speed endurance/a.k.a., be the best miler, but Ratcliffe may have the most endurance over a sloppy 5k course.
(1c) Then there's Wilson, who ran her final mile in 5:07.4 for her 16:20.0 CR -- on a venue which opened in 1975.
(d) And, Dudek, who just ran hard from the gun to clock 16:18.6 -- fastest time of any of these young ladies -- for a new CR at La Verne Gibson, a moderately difficult venue which has been in use since 1997.
Again, I think the NXN winner will be one of these four -- but would not be surprised at all if there's a true mudder out there who surprises everyone on Saturday.
However, which scenario is the best prep for the effort it will take to race each step on muddy, soft grass this Saturday?
(1a) Ratcliffe running 17-flat on an extremely hilly course at NXR NE, splitting the first half of the race -- the up-the-mountain part -- faster than Tuohy did when Katelyn ran her 16:45 CR.
or
(1b) Williams running the 4:58 final uphill mile -- after already cresting "Killer Hill" by the 2.1 mile mark -- but on perfect course conditions in perfect weather?
What these two scenarios suggest is, Williams may have he best speed endurance/a.k.a., be the best miler, but Ratcliffe may have the most endurance over a sloppy 5k course.
(1c) Then there's Wilson, who ran her final mile in 5:07.4 for her 16:20.0 CR -- on a venue which opened in 1975.
(d) And, Dudek, who just ran hard from the gun to clock 16:18.6 -- fastest time of any of these young ladies -- for a new CR at La Verne Gibson, a moderately difficult venue which has been in use since 1997.
Again, I think the NXN winner will be one of these four -- but would not be surprised at all if there's a true mudder out there who surprises everyone on Saturday.
I will bet you a million dollars that Ratcliffe won't win NXN.
In any case, none of them ran a recent race on "muddy, soft grass."
I dont think you realize how impressive closing a final mile in 4:58 at Woodward park is. I dont think any female has ever done that before.
You didn't understand what I wrote. And I was there. I saw her do it.
I understand what you wrote. But, I am commenting on current form and fitness. Maybe she has made a new jump in training or fitness, because she looked like a different runner at Woodward Park on Saturday. I guess we'll see in Portland.
You didn't understand what I wrote. And I was there. I saw her do it.
I understand what you wrote. But, I am commenting on current form and fitness. Maybe she has made a new jump in training or fitness, because she looked like a different runner at Woodward Park on Saturday. I guess we'll see in Portland.
Someone in Williams' camp told me yesterday that she was "VERY fit" (their emphasis not mine.) And that person also thinks Williams will probably win NXN.
However, I don't believe that that person pays much attention to runners outside of California so I don't think they understand how fit girls like Dudek and Bartlett are.
One thing on Williams' side is that she has run in a muddy NXN and did very well, 7th place two years ago. Dudek and Bartlett have never run NXN and Lowen ran last year but did poorly.
Right now the weather forecast for Portland says it will be a little muddy for Saturday's race but probably not as bad as the last 2 years.
I understand what you wrote. But, I am commenting on current form and fitness. Maybe she has made a new jump in training or fitness, because she looked like a different runner at Woodward Park on Saturday. I guess we'll see in Portland.
Someone in Williams' camp told me yesterday that she was "VERY fit" (their emphasis not mine.) And that person also thinks Williams will probably win NXN.
However, I don't believe that that person pays much attention to runners outside of California so I don't think they understand how fit girls like Dudek and Bartlett are.
One thing on Williams' side is that she has run in a muddy NXN and did very well, 7th place two years ago. Dudek and Bartlett have never run NXN and Lowen ran last year but did poorly.
Right now the weather forecast for Portland says it will be a little muddy for Saturday's race but probably not as bad as the last 2 years.
I'm picking Wilson. But Williams is a beast when fit and not injured. I believe she was injured a lot last year and her fitness was not there.
At the 2024 California state meet as a sophomore she was gone from the gun and never looked back defeating a stellar field. She had no fear to lead.
In the race video from California state meet she looked very fit. She will definitely be a contender.
The only hesitation on Wilson is the muddy conditions. my outside observation is that she really benefits from the super shoes, and hard footing courses. so id be curious to see how she manages the Portland muddy course.
The only hesitation on Wilson is the muddy conditions. my outside observation is that she really benefits from the super shoes, and hard footing courses. so id be curious to see how she manages the Portland muddy course.
Are you saying that her impressive XC times have been run on XC courses while wearing super shoes?
The only hesitation on Wilson is the muddy conditions. my outside observation is that she really benefits from the super shoes, and hard footing courses. so id be curious to see how she manages the Portland muddy course.
Yes.
The point I've been making all along.
What will these girls be able to do when having to spike up for a course which will be like a swamp come Saturday?
Current Portland weather forecast predicts rain starting Thursday and continuing non-stop through the weekend.
So, beware of Addy Ritz. Won two years ago in a very controlled, come-from-behind win then finished 5th last year in the swamp, less than two secs from 2nd. As veteran an NXNer as you can get. Maybe not the most fit runner in the field but possibly the smartest for this course.
The only hesitation on Wilson is the muddy conditions. my outside observation is that she really benefits from the super shoes, and hard footing courses. so id be curious to see how she manages the Portland muddy course.
Yes.
The point I've been making all along.
What will these girls be able to do when having to spike up for a course which will be like a swamp come Saturday?
Current Portland weather forecast predicts rain starting Thursday and continuing non-stop through the weekend.
So, beware of Addy Ritz. Won two years ago in a very controlled, come-from-behind win then finished 5th last year in the swamp, less than two secs from 2nd. As veteran an NXNer as you can get. Maybe not the most fit runner in the field but possibly the smartest for this course.
Ahhhhhh. Well there it is. Those aren't XC courses if they didn't need spikes.
The NE and NY girls just ran an absolute monster course in muddy conditions.
My money's on Bartlett. Ran that course effortlessly.
Ahhhhhh. Well there it is. Those aren't XC courses if they didn't need spikes.
You don’t understand. It doesn't matter if a California xc course "needs" spikes or not. The kids are prohibited from wearing spikes on any course for any reason.
What will these girls be able to do when having to spike up for a course which will be like a swamp come Saturday?
Current Portland weather forecast predicts rain starting Thursday and continuing non-stop through the weekend.
So, beware of Addy Ritz. Won two years ago in a very controlled, come-from-behind win then finished 5th last year in the swamp, less than two secs from 2nd. As veteran an NXNer as you can get. Maybe not the most fit runner in the field but possibly the smartest for this course.
Ahhhhhh. Well there it is. Those aren't XC courses if they didn't need spikes.
The NE and NY girls just ran an absolute monster course in muddy conditions.
My money's on Bartlett. Ran that course effortlessly.
From what I saw of the NE NXN, though there was mud on the course, it was not a swampy golf course like Portland becomes. Boys are first, girls are second this year so course will be torn up for the girls. Advantage to the leader who can pick the best line.