Even if you completely remove Hartman from the simulation, LACCTiC gives:
1 NC State 157 2 BYU 168 3 Oregon 184
But that makes it a very close race; and in that case, if you hit the Simulation button, the winning odds become:
1 BYU 41% 2 NC State 40% 3 Oregon 19%
Simulation button will only produce results based upon how the program is coded.
And, the code has flaws.
One of which is undervaluing OR -- maybe due to their early & mid-season races w/o Ayyildiz & Barnett.
With a full lineup at B1Gs, OR had a 1-5 spread of 39 secs and a 1-6 spread of 42 secs -- with NCAA co-favorite Cherotich winning by 15 secs. OR won with 18 points, a B1G meed record.
If those six race NCAAs like they did B1Gs, there's your likely champion -- in a squeaker over NC State.
If Hartman is healthy & fully fit come Saturday, then NC State also has a very formidable top-6 in Napolean-Hartman-Gapes-Michalak-Englehardt-Rauber. With that full lineup at ACCs, NC State had a 1-5 spread of 31 secs and a 1-6 spread of 36 secs. Even better that OR at B1Gs. However, with Cherubet 11th & Ayyildez 13th at NCAAs last fall and now Cherotich competing FTW, OR's top-3 look slightly better than NC State's. Then, with OR's #6 Anika Thompson having finished 32nd at NCAAs last year, OR's middle & back end looks slightly better as well.
Leaving BYU in 3rd. Hedengren may very well win. Riley Chamberlain finished 31st last year at NCAAs and should move up -- but OR & NC State's #2s are better. Then -- most importantly -- the 30-35 sec gap back to whomever is BYU's #3 is where OR & NC State should eat BYU alive.
Summarizing:
OR slight winner over NC State, both under 100 points. BYU clear 3rd, probably under the 147 points they scored FTW last year.
Winner: Lemngole/AL -- manages to hang w/Hedengren thru 5.5k then kicks it in.
Runner-up: Cherotich/OR -- stays with Hedengren & Lemngole the longest.
Show: Longisa/WSU -- big West Regional win over Cherotich (likely cruising but still fast)
Time: even with rain in the forecast for Springfield, MO this week, given that the Gans Creek course is so well manicured and drained -- along with being mostly flat with wide, sweeping turns which eliminate bottlenecks -- likely Hedegren's 18:42 CR will be broken. Diljeet suggested post-Mountain Regionals, Jane has been holding back a bit but will be "turned loose" on Saturday. Projecting winning time around 18:30 -- unthinkable up until this year.
If you think LACCTiC’s conclusions are flawed, then I suggest you head over to the (mostly) very good Simulation thread and offer any valuable input you might have.
Division I Cross Country10/07/2025 4:12am EDT7 months ago
Here is a start on a Natty’s Simulation Countdown :www.lacctic.com/simulate/teamIDs=953,263,2444,1329,1079&individualRunnerIDs=90788,70990,92963,106354&league=&deleted=124115,124118,125709,124116,82397,82394,124121,124122,124...
With a full lineup at B1Gs, OR had a 1-5 spread of 39 secs and a 1-6 spread of 42 secs --
With that full lineup at ACCs, NC State had a 1-5 spread of 31 secs and a 1-6 spread of 36 secs.
Looking at the above right there should have been a HUGE clue that it is your logic that is flawed, and your conclusions are probably heavily biased.
You then could have dug even a wee bit deeper, by asking what were the leader’s finishing times (leading those spreads) between the two teams, and how did the courses compare between the two.
Even if you completely remove Hartman from the simulation, LACCTiC gives:
1 NC State 157 2 BYU 168 3 Oregon 184
But that makes it a very close race; and in that case, if you hit the Simulation button, the winning odds become:
1 BYU 41% 2 NC State 40% 3 Oregon 19%
Simulation button will only produce results based upon how the program is coded.
And, the code has flaws.
One of which is undervaluing OR -- maybe due to their early & mid-season races w/o Ayyildiz & Barnett.
With a full lineup at B1Gs, OR had a 1-5 spread of 39 secs and a 1-6 spread of 42 secs -- with NCAA co-favorite Cherotich winning by 15 secs. OR won with 18 points, a B1G meed record.
If those six race NCAAs like they did B1Gs, there's your likely champion -- in a squeaker over NC State.
If Hartman is healthy & fully fit come Saturday, then NC State also has a very formidable top-6 in Napolean-Hartman-Gapes-Michalak-Englehardt-Rauber. With that full lineup at ACCs, NC State had a 1-5 spread of 31 secs and a 1-6 spread of 36 secs. Even better that OR at B1Gs. However, with Cherubet 11th & Ayyildez 13th at NCAAs last fall and now Cherotich competing FTW, OR's top-3 look slightly better than NC State's. Then, with OR's #6 Anika Thompson having finished 32nd at NCAAs last year, OR's middle & back end looks slightly better as well.
Leaving BYU in 3rd. Hedengren may very well win. Riley Chamberlain finished 31st last year at NCAAs and should move up -- but OR & NC State's #2s are better. Then -- most importantly -- the 30-35 sec gap back to whomever is BYU's #3 is where OR & NC State should eat BYU alive.
Summarizing:
OR slight winner over NC State, both under 100 points. BYU clear 3rd, probably under the 147 points they scored FTW last year.
Winner: Lemngole/AL -- manages to hang w/Hedengren thru 5.5k then kicks it in.
Runner-up: Cherotich/OR -- stays with Hedengren & Lemngole the longest.
Show: Longisa/WSU -- big West Regional win over Cherotich (likely cruising but still fast)
Time: even with rain in the forecast for Springfield, MO this week, given that the Gans Creek course is so well manicured and drained -- along with being mostly flat with wide, sweeping turns which eliminate bottlenecks -- likely Hedegren's 18:42 CR will be broken. Diljeet suggested post-Mountain Regionals, Jane has been holding back a bit but will be "turned loose" on Saturday. Projecting winning time around 18:30 -- unthinkable up until this year.
a couple of observations on this.
I don't think Cherotich at B1G was anywhere near where she would need to be to be in top 5 at Nationals so I would not put much weight on that 1-5 spread. Conversely I think NC St was going pretty much at full speed at ACC. My view of the data is Chamberlain is pretty even with that top 3 of NC St - or at least will split them up. BYU needs to close that gap behind Chamberlain. I do think we have not yet seen the best of Cherubet and Aayildiz but again I think the OR top 3 are pretty much equal to NC St top 3 in total. But I think NC St #4 is better than OR #4, and probably the same for #5. Goff of BYU seems to have regressed a bit of late. I wonder if she runs, or whether they roll the dice with Machia who had the one great race, but also a couple of lesser results. I think Doris will stick with Jane as long as she can, which might be the whole race. And yes it will be fast.
With a full lineup at B1Gs, OR had a 1-5 spread of 39 secs and a 1-6 spread of 42 secs --
With that full lineup at ACCs, NC State had a 1-5 spread of 31 secs and a 1-6 spread of 36 secs.
Looking at the above right there should have been a HUGE clue that it is your logic that is flawed, and your conclusions are probably heavily biased.
You then could have dug even a wee bit deeper, by asking what were the leader’s finishing times (leading those spreads) between the two teams, and how did the courses compare between the two.
Looking at the above right there should have been a HUGE clue that it is your logic that is flawed, and your conclusions are probably heavily biased.
You then could have dug even a wee bit deeper, by asking what were the leader’s finishing times (leading those spreads) between the two teams, and how did the courses compare between the two.
NC State’s top three finished faster than Oregon’s #1.
NC State’s top four finished faster than Oregon’s #2.
So the next step is to compare what the course and conditions were like between the two. Video tapes of both races are on ytube.
BigTen Champs were held in East Lansing, Michigan, at the Forest Akers East Golf Course.
The 2025 ACC Cross Country Championships were held at E.P. “Tom” Sawyer State Park in Louisville, Kentucky.
The golf course was serpentine with plenty and of sharp turns, maybe a bit breezy, but it looked like a fast course.
The Tom Sawyer course was rain soaked, with standing water and mud in places. Being an old course populated with mature trees (possessing beautiful foliage), it had roots and consequent stepping holes at various places on the course.
The Tom Sawyer course was rain soaked, with standing water and mud in places. Being an old course populated with mature trees (possessing beautiful foliage), it had roots and consequent stepping holes at various places on the course.
Right before the tape, an exhausted Hartman took an awkward lunging step sliding in the mud. Possibly (don’t know) she ripped her plantar further with that step. (But if so, maybe that can turn out to be a positive, to rip the scar tissue like pulling off a band-aide, so after icing it a few days, it starts to properly heal.🙏)
Right before the tape, an exhausted Hartman took an awkward lunging step sliding in the mud. Possibly (don’t know) she ripped her plantar further with that step. (But if so, maybe that can turn out to be a positive, to rip the scar tissue like pulling off a band-aide, so after icing it a few days, it starts to properly heal.🙏)
(But on the other hand, some other injury, like a pulled groin, could have happened with that awkward lunge.🤷)
Right before the tape, an exhausted Hartman took an awkward lunging step sliding in the mud. Possibly (don’t know) she ripped her plantar further with that step. (But if so, maybe that can turn out to be a positive, to rip the scar tissue like pulling off a band-aide, so after icing it a few days, it starts to properly heal.🙏)
(But on the other hand, some other injury, like a pulled groin, could have happened with that awkward lunge.🤷)
It would seem odd for her to be doing a workout on the 14th if she was really dealing with an injury.
FYI, I spoke with Laurie Henes earlier today. Will have more in my NCAA preview later this week but I can tell you two things:
1. Grace Hartman developed a plantar issue over the summer and has had to manage it during this XC season.
2. Henes confirmed that, barring an unforeseen setback, Grace Hartman will race at NCAAs on Saturday. She said that it was always part of the plan that Hartman would skip the regional meet and that she ran a workout that day instead.
Hartman may indeed have a plantar issue. That doesn’t explain her last 1k at ACCs where she faded badly and nearly fell just before the finish.
FYI, I spoke with Laurie Henes earlier today. Will have more in my NCAA preview later this week but I can tell you two things:
1. Grace Hartman developed a plantar issue over the summer and has had to manage it during this XC season.
2. Henes confirmed that, barring an unforeseen setback, Grace Hartman will race at NCAAs on Saturday. She said that it was always part of the plan that Hartman would skip the regional meet and that she ran a workout that day instead.
Hartman may indeed have a plantar issue. That doesn’t explain her last 1k at ACCs where she faded badly and nearly fell just before the finish.
It looked like the plan for that race was to push real hard in the middle and she overdid it a bit.
Simulation button will only produce results based upon how the program is coded.
And, the code has flaws. . . .
If Hartman is healthy & fully fit . . .
Summarizing:
OR slight winner over NC State, both under 100 points. BYU clear 3rd, probably under the 147 points they scored FTW last year.
Gold: Lemngole/AL -- manages to hang w/Hedengren thru 5.5k then kicks it in.
Silver: Hedengren
Bronze:: Cherotich/OR -- stays with Hedengren & Lemngole the longest.
Great Effort but 4th: Longisa/WSU -- big West Regional win over Cherotich (likely cruising but still fast)
. . .
Corrections to projected top-4 highlighted above.
JG's post above confirmed what many have suspected: Hartman's plantar issues from summer have lingered, thus compromising her training this fall. Which explains her faltering at the end of ACCs when she tried to front lead, per usual, but didn't have the fitness to maintain to the end.
Thus, her 4th place conference finish was no fluke. That's who she is right now: #2 or #3 runner for NC State and not having the fitness level necessary to finish 5th at NCAAs as last year. Guessing Napolean will lead the way for the Wolfpack on Saturday. if not her, then Gapes.
Still, a terrific top-3.
However, OR's top-3 look slightly better, especially with Cherotich/OR being the best #1 between the two teams. The #2s & #3s will likely cancel each other out, leaving the team race decided by the #4s & #5s. As posted earlier, with Thompson/OR finishing 32nd last year at NCAAs and now appearing to be the team's #6, can't pick against a team looking to have 6 AAs (top-40).
Not quite sure who BYU held out of Mountain Regionals. Maybe a #7? Looks like everyone else ran. Thought Diljeet would hold out the true-frosh Hedengren & Macchia, but no. And Hutchins not having raced this fall doesn't offer hope for the running equivalent of a Kurt Gibson pinch hit World Series-ending home run. Thus, not encouraging to see BYU lose the Regional along with not seeing evidence of the team closing the gap between Champberlain & #3. So, BYU to Show.
Regarding times, the Louisville course is the flattest amongst the 7 courses currently in NCAA Div 1 rotation. Gans Creek has gentle undulations on the back loop so slightly "hillier" - but actually runs faster than any other course due to the manicured surface with wide, sweeping turns which eliminate bottlenecks.
The ACC course was wet in spots but didn't appear to slow anyone down. Gans Creek is all turf grass all the way -- no open spots of dirt anywhere -- so even though the grass will be wet from this week's rains, the footing should still be quite firm and not measurably slow anyone down.
Thus, expecting ACC times to translate well -- maybe even a little faster -- on Gans Creek on Saturday. And, most everyone else will run significantly faster than they ever have before, especially if their xc prs were on Zimmer/WI, Greiner Family/OK St or La Vern Gibson/IN St.
Biggest Fascination come Saturday: Will Hedengren continue to front run, who besides Lemngole will attempt to stay with her . . . and for how long?
I hear Flotrak, the Stride Report, and the National Collegiate Coaches Poll are now all in agreement that NC State is ranked #1. I imagine they came to that conclusion based upon what they have seen this season.
So what do you think about that? Are you disagreeing with all of them, thinking Oregon actually is #1, or instead, are you in agreement with them that NC State is deserving of their #1 Ranking, but you think Oregon will somehow pull a rabbit-out-the-hat, or other, and find a way to pull off an upset?
I hear Flotrak, the Stride Report, and the National Collegiate Coaches Poll are now all in agreement that NC State is ranked #1. I imagine they came to that conclusion based upon what they have seen this season.
So what do you think about that? Are you disagreeing with all of them, thinking Oregon actually is #1, or instead, are you in agreement with them that NC State is deserving of their #1 Ranking, but you think Oregon will somehow pull a rabbit-out-the-hat, or other, and find a way to pull off an upset?
These are non-rhetorical questions I would really like to see your reply to. Maybe you think you have some special insight that all of those others are missing or overlooking?
However, OR's top-3 look slightly better, especially with Cherotich/OR being the best #1 between the two teams. The #2s & #3s will likely cancel each other out, leaving the team race decided by the #4s & #5s.
For instance, you state Oregon’s and NC State’s “#2s & #3s will likely cancel each other out”.
Do you spend anytime actually reviewing race results, or are these conclusions more by ‘gut feel’?
We do have LACCTiC to help sort that type of question out, but since you earlier said (without specifically giving reasons why) that you think theLACCTiC algorithm is “flawed”, on what basis do you conclude, Oregon’s and NC State’s “#2s & #3s will likely cancel each other out”?
FYI, I spoke with Laurie Henes earlier today. Will have more in my NCAA preview later this week but I can tell you two things:
1. Grace Hartman developed a plantar issue over the summer and has had to manage it during this XC season.
2. Henes confirmed that, barring an unforeseen setback, Grace Hartman will race at NCAAs on Saturday. She said that it was always part of the plan that Hartman would skip the regional meet and that she ran a workout that day instead.
So just a question on qualifying. An athlete can sit out NCAA Regionals and if their team qualifies (NC State) can still run Nationals? I'm glad Hartman is running, she is brilliant, but I wasn't aware of this rule which really seems to benefit the Oregon, Ok State, NC State powerhouses.
FYI, I spoke with Laurie Henes earlier today. Will have more in my NCAA preview later this week but I can tell you two things:
1. Grace Hartman developed a plantar issue over the summer and has had to manage it during this XC season.
2. Henes confirmed that, barring an unforeseen setback, Grace Hartman will race at NCAAs on Saturday. She said that it was always part of the plan that Hartman would skip the regional meet and that she ran a workout that day instead.
So just a question on qualifying. An athlete can sit out NCAA Regionals and if their team qualifies (NC State) can still run Nationals? I'm glad Hartman is running, she is brilliant, but I wasn't aware of this rule which really seems to benefit the Oregon, Ok State, NC State powerhouses.